09-29-2016, 11:23 AM
(09-29-2016, 10:45 AM)martyup link Wrote:Is this game really for all the marbles? After last week's UW overtime win against AZ, I'm not so sure. The dawgs showed vulnerability.Â
The winner of this game has an effective two game lead in the north division. If UW wins, then for us to win the north, they would have to lose 2 other Pac-12 games. With games against OR, OR ST, U$C, UT, ×ÉÉ, WA ST and ASU, it is possible that they drop 2 of those games. UT and OR will be tough road games. Of course we would have to run the board on Pac-12 games. Our remaining Pac-12 games will be a bit easier than theirs. We play WA St, OR, OR St, CO, and ×ÉÉ.Â
The same is true if we win this game. We would have to drop 2 of our remaining Pac-12 games and they would have to run the table.
Massey's computer ratings predict that in its 7 conference games after Stanford, Washington will have an expected record of 4.29 wins and 2.71 losses. It projects Stanford in its 6 conference games after Washington to have an expected record of 5.14 wins and 0.86 losses. That suggests Stanford has a substantial chance of winning the conference even if it loses to Washington, but not vice-versa. The difference is partly that Stanford is rated higher, but also that Stanford's remaining conference schedule is significantly easier.
Of course, that's just one rating system, and this early in the season, computer ratings are still heavily based on the ratings at the start of the season (I think Massey uses last season's result as the start for this year). But it still says something.

