02-28-2025, 11:57 PM
Stanford favored by 1, O/U is 150.5, implied score is 75.75-74.74. OTOH, ESPN Analytics gives SMU a 60.9% chance to win. The Mustangs are 21-7, 12-5 in the ACC, and an impressive 7-2 on the road.
My preview for Stanford's game at SMU on Feb. 1 can be found here:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=25442
In that game, Stanford, playing without Jaylen Blakes and Donavin Young, lost big, 85-61. This time, it might be SMU that plays shorthanded. Boopie Miller has missed their last 4 games with some sort of foot injury. I am not sure what his status is for Saturday.
In Miller's absence, SMU's starting line-up Wednesday at Cal was Chuck Harris, BJ Edwards, Samet Yigitoglu, Kario Oquendo, & Matt Cross. Edwards, Oquendo, & Cross played 39, 33, & 32 minutes, respectively. Yigitoglu played 26 minutes before fouling out, and Harris played 28 minutes, limited somewhat by 4 fouls. Jerrell Colbert also fouled out while playing just 8 minutes. Based on those numbers, it appears that, especially if Miller is still out, SMU may rely heavily on the starting 5. SMU led Cal 42-29 at the half. But, partly due to the Mustangs foul problems, Cal was able to chip away at the lead to tie it 66-66 with about 5 minutes left. SMU then went on a 9-0 run and won 81-77.
SMU plays up tempo and efficiently on offense and hits the boards hard at both ends. They are 2nd in the ACC in scoring offense (82.14 ppg), 3rd in scoring margin (+10.25), 2nd in FG% (48.3), 3rd in FG% defense (40.5), 3rd in 3pt FG% (38.4), 1st in rebounds (39.7 rpg), 2nd in rebounding margin (+6.5), 2nd in assists (16.3), and 2nd in steals (7.8). Despite the high-scoring offense, the Mustangs have no one in the top 20 scorers in the ACC. But they have 6 players (Miller + all the starters in the Cal game) averaging in double figures. Cross is 5th in rebounding (8.1 rpg) and Yigitoglu is 13th (6.5). Miller is 4th in assists (5.7/game), and Edwards is 10th (3.8). Edwards is 2nd in steals (2.3/game) and Miller is 7th (1.6). And Harris is 6th in 3pt FGs with 64.
SMU is in 4th place in the ACC, currently in position for a double-bye in the ACC tournament. With Wake Forest & UNC just a game behind, they will be trying to hold onto that spot, and also trying to improve their position as one of the "next 4 out" in ESPN latest NCAA tourney bracketology. Stanford is in 7th place, in position for a single bye in the ACC tourney. They trail Wake & UNC by a game, and have a 2-game edge on Georgia Tech. With road games at Notre Dame & Louisville next week, getting a win in the final home game would be a big boost in hanging onto that bye, edging closer to 20 wins, and (short of a miraculous run to the NCAA tourney), closing in on a spot in the NIT.
And, of course it will be Senior Day for Jaylen Blakes, Cole Kastner, & Maxime Raynaud. Hopefully they can finish up at Maples with some happy memories and a win.
My preview for Stanford's game at SMU on Feb. 1 can be found here:
https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=25442
In that game, Stanford, playing without Jaylen Blakes and Donavin Young, lost big, 85-61. This time, it might be SMU that plays shorthanded. Boopie Miller has missed their last 4 games with some sort of foot injury. I am not sure what his status is for Saturday.
In Miller's absence, SMU's starting line-up Wednesday at Cal was Chuck Harris, BJ Edwards, Samet Yigitoglu, Kario Oquendo, & Matt Cross. Edwards, Oquendo, & Cross played 39, 33, & 32 minutes, respectively. Yigitoglu played 26 minutes before fouling out, and Harris played 28 minutes, limited somewhat by 4 fouls. Jerrell Colbert also fouled out while playing just 8 minutes. Based on those numbers, it appears that, especially if Miller is still out, SMU may rely heavily on the starting 5. SMU led Cal 42-29 at the half. But, partly due to the Mustangs foul problems, Cal was able to chip away at the lead to tie it 66-66 with about 5 minutes left. SMU then went on a 9-0 run and won 81-77.
SMU plays up tempo and efficiently on offense and hits the boards hard at both ends. They are 2nd in the ACC in scoring offense (82.14 ppg), 3rd in scoring margin (+10.25), 2nd in FG% (48.3), 3rd in FG% defense (40.5), 3rd in 3pt FG% (38.4), 1st in rebounds (39.7 rpg), 2nd in rebounding margin (+6.5), 2nd in assists (16.3), and 2nd in steals (7.8). Despite the high-scoring offense, the Mustangs have no one in the top 20 scorers in the ACC. But they have 6 players (Miller + all the starters in the Cal game) averaging in double figures. Cross is 5th in rebounding (8.1 rpg) and Yigitoglu is 13th (6.5). Miller is 4th in assists (5.7/game), and Edwards is 10th (3.8). Edwards is 2nd in steals (2.3/game) and Miller is 7th (1.6). And Harris is 6th in 3pt FGs with 64.
SMU is in 4th place in the ACC, currently in position for a double-bye in the ACC tournament. With Wake Forest & UNC just a game behind, they will be trying to hold onto that spot, and also trying to improve their position as one of the "next 4 out" in ESPN latest NCAA tourney bracketology. Stanford is in 7th place, in position for a single bye in the ACC tourney. They trail Wake & UNC by a game, and have a 2-game edge on Georgia Tech. With road games at Notre Dame & Louisville next week, getting a win in the final home game would be a big boost in hanging onto that bye, edging closer to 20 wins, and (short of a miraculous run to the NCAA tourney), closing in on a spot in the NIT.
And, of course it will be Senior Day for Jaylen Blakes, Cole Kastner, & Maxime Raynaud. Hopefully they can finish up at Maples with some happy memories and a win.
