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49ers, 28-27. Deebo Samuel MVP as Shanahan wisely sticks to the ground game. KC keys on McCaffrey, who will do well, say 21 rushes, 110 yards. Samuel gashes KC, they have no answer. Kittle shut down, Aiyuk shut down, Juzczsyk makes two catches and has many great blocks and does the Stanford of the East proud.
KC's defense is suited to stop SF. SF has a weak OL outside of Williams, particularly the right side. KC tends to send five rushers, which will overwhelm SF's OL. Purdy could have a really good day, a decent day or a bad day depending upon Shanahan's calls. KC has an elite secondary and a mediocre run defense. I really, really hope Shanahan learns from last year's game.
More to the point, Mahomes could destroy this defense as he did last year in the regular season, so the wild card is SF's defense. I hope that John Lynch lets everyone on defense -- particularly Chase Young and the DBs -- "What you do today will determine your future in this game. Fame, fortune and glory...or an early exit." I don't worry about Warner, Ward, Hargraves, Greenlaw or Bosa. I worry about everyone else.
Be interesting to see which Chiefs team shows up...the team that beat the Raiders 31-17, or the team that lost to the Raiders 14-10.
During the regular season, 49ers were 2nd in total offense by yardage, 3rd in points scored. Chiefs offense was 9th and 15th. On defense, Chiefs were 2nd in both defensive yardage allowed and points per game, 49ers were 8th and third respectively. If defense wins, we're in trouble. As for special teams, neither the Chiefs nor the Niners have great return teams. Chiefs' kicker is considerably better than Moody, 12/12 over 40 yards, punters are a wash (same 43.5 net).
I think it will be determined by turnovers. 49ers were +10, Chiefs were -11 during the regular season. If the 49ers have a +2 advantage in turnovers, they'll win, I suspect. If it comes down to the kickers, the Chiefs will win.
ESPN lists this as 59.4% SF/40.6% Chiefs. I think the Chiefs will win, unless the 49ers play to their outer limits of their capabilities, all of them. So...28-27, 49ers.
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