(10-20-2022, 05:50 PM)Treefence Wrote: I definitely agree with you, it would be a big time missed opportunity if Ukraine doesn't make Russia pay for their failures in Kherson. They could potentially capture thousands of Russians, kill thousands of Russians, a mixture of both, not push them out of Kherson, or let them off the hook. My guess is that a group of Russians are captured, but less than a thousand, but many are killed. I also think Russia blows all the bridges completely, and ends up leaving a bunch of heavy equipment.
Undoubtedly the scope and scale of Russian losses will figure greatly in how this campaign is evaluated by history. I suspect we aren't going to get much hard data on that unless the results are so spectacular they can't be ignored. There are two scenarios that are being pushed that are a bit alarming. One of them is that Russia will leave a bunch of the newly conscripted troops on the west bank to function as a "rear guard" and pull back the intact "professional" troops. Trying to do that could blow up in their face if Ukraine can quickly push through the rear guard and catch the rest of the Russian units moving. If Russia pulls this off, it would be a big advantage to them. The other is that Russia intends to blow the Kakhovka dam, thereby flooding much of the Kherson Oblast near the river. It would be a disaster for Ukraine. It also would be a disaster for Crimea as it would destroy it's water supply, but who knows how crazy the Russians may be.
Quote:While it would be a missed opportunity, it's still an extremely significant and strategic victory, to be able to reclaim the only regional capital they have lost in the Feb 24th Russian campaign, and liberate another 10k square kilometers.
There I part company with you. It would be a politically significant victory in any event. If it damages the Russian army significantly in manpower and equipment (manpower probably being more important) it could be a significant strategic and tactical victory for Ukraine. If OTOH it is a bunch of conscripts and Russia retreats across the river without Ukraine being hot on their heels, it is a significant tactical victory for Russia. Russia was in a horrible tactical position. To get out of it with reasonable losses and with Ukraine stuck on the right bank is the best Russia could hope for. If they get that, it isn't good news for Ukraine. I do think Ukraine intends to contest the rest of the Oblast over the winter. They have said as much. They need to be on the left bank to do this and the time to do that is while Russia is retreating. If they wait, Russia will dig in and it will be an opposed river crossing. Not good.
Quote:I think it would also give Ukraine the opportunity to move a bunch more people to the Zaporizhzhian front and potentially start an offensive there, and potentially push the Russians back to the Pre Feb 24th boundaries. Granted Russia will also have a bunch more troops to spread around, but I think they lose significantly more men and equipment than Ukraine from the Kherson withdrawal. I also wonder if losing Kherson could also lead much more questioning of Putin back in Russia, because this would be after their mobilization, and they can't pretend Kherson proper wasn't part the part they annexed.
As far as the Zaporizhzhian front goes, take a look at
https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1579270462445858816. Ukraine would have to supply their advance across the river in an area where there are no rail lines and few roads. There is some good news in that it appears the region is fairly lightly held. It also appears (according to some reports) that Russian troops are also pulling back in that area. As the article says, it is a big ask. OTOH if Ukraine is driving the Russians in Kherson Oblast, they should press on there. They have the river there too, but they have rail lines and the M14 to move supplies in. There are also bridges that can be fixed if Russia is prevented from blowing them. If possible, IMHO that is the way to go. It cuts the land bridge, cuts off the water supply to Crimea, and directly threatens Crimea. Putin's worst nightmare. It is also always better to attack an enemy you have just defeated and disorganized than one that is in prepared positions. We shall see.
Quote:All that to say, despite it potentially being a missed opportunity, I think it'll still be a great victory for Ukraine and a of immense proportions boost of morale going into winter.
For the population at large, it will boot morale in all cases. For the general staff, if the Russians get their tactical best outcome, it will be a major downer. They know what they intended to accomplish and will have not succeeded. Ukraine was on a roll, and that outcome would be a bummer for their military.
The real serious issue at the moment is whether Russia does indeed intend to blow the dam. IMHO the NATO countries need to make it clear to Putin that if he does that, it will be considered similar to using a nuclear weapon. Ukraine has asked us to do this. If Russia doesn't intend to to this, it is a nop. It they do, they have to know it is going to really cost them. The damage of such an action would indeed by comparable to a tactical nuclear weapon, maybe worse because of the land area affected. It also would basically make it impossible for Ukraine to attack across the resulting flooded area for a very long time.
