[M T]

I, on the other hand, hope Putin spends years in prison, during which time he is tried for war crimes (and, I presume, convicted).
I think the war crimes trial would be useful to deter future attempts like Putin's.

[M T]

I, on the other hand, hope Putin spends years in prison, during which time he is tried for war crimes (and, I presume, convicted).
I think the war crimes trial would be useful to deter future attempts like Putin's.

[OutsiderFan]

A preview of coming attractions.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1572979178701455364[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

A preview of coming attractions.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1572979178701455364[/tweet]

[Goose]

Putin getting couped is seeming more and more plausible. This was a fun article about the history of Kremlin coups.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-f...ps-kremlin

Death of Stalin is more fun though. Would be really awesome if Putin gets a bullet to the dome after a show trial.

I, on the other hand, hope Putin spends years in prison, during which time he is tried for war crimes (and, I presume, convicted).
I think the war crimes trial would be useful to deter future attempts like Putin's.

I strongly suspect that if Putin is removed there will be no trial (show or otherwise) and no prison involved. Putin may be allowed to "retire" and will be protected from trial because nobody in the political "elite" in Russia has clean hands and such a trial would reveal that fact. The rest of the world may just have to hold their nose and accept this in return for him going at all. OTOH somebody may just shoot Putin and some scapegoat will plead "insanity" for doing it (or will be shot while trying to escape). It would be great if the Russian people would rise up and "clean up Moscow". However, history (recent and "ancient") shows such uprisings install leadership with many of the same (or worse) liabilities present in those deposed :-). This renders "justice" thin on the ground.

I also frankly doubt the deterrence value of such a trial, if it ever could occur. The pathological nature of absolute rulers who commit such crimes does not admit the possibility of failure. They all believe they are untouchable when they commit such crimes, and are not rational enough to realize they may not be in power forever and the immunity that their position supplies is ephemeral. In some cases they are correct because they only way they leave power is in a coffin.

[Goose]

Putin getting couped is seeming more and more plausible. This was a fun article about the history of Kremlin coups.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-f...ps-kremlin

Death of Stalin is more fun though. Would be really awesome if Putin gets a bullet to the dome after a show trial.

I, on the other hand, hope Putin spends years in prison, during which time he is tried for war crimes (and, I presume, convicted).
I think the war crimes trial would be useful to deter future attempts like Putin's.

I strongly suspect that if Putin is removed there will be no trial (show or otherwise) and no prison involved. Putin may be allowed to "retire" and will be protected from trial because nobody in the political "elite" in Russia has clean hands and such a trial would reveal that fact. The rest of the world may just have to hold their nose and accept this in return for him going at all. OTOH somebody may just shoot Putin and some scapegoat will plead "insanity" for doing it (or will be shot while trying to escape). It would be great if the Russian people would rise up and "clean up Moscow". However, history (recent and "ancient") shows such uprisings install leadership with many of the same (or worse) liabilities present in those deposed :-). This renders "justice" thin on the ground.

I also frankly doubt the deterrence value of such a trial, if it ever could occur. The pathological nature of absolute rulers who commit such crimes does not admit the possibility of failure. They all believe they are untouchable when they commit such crimes, and are not rational enough to realize they may not be in power forever and the immunity that their position supplies is ephemeral. In some cases they are correct because they only way they leave power is in a coffin.

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1572680307916288000?s=21&t=CuaIm8kcNIvXSdQ-k-ROjg[/tweet]

Interesting analysis, suggesting that Russia is still vulnerable east of Kharkiv.

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1572680307916288000?s=21&t=CuaIm8kcNIvXSdQ-k-ROjg[/tweet]

Interesting analysis, suggesting that Russia is still vulnerable east of Kharkiv.

BC

[TrumpCard]

I note that Ukraine seems to be expending a lot of effort to recapture some small towns north of the SD river on the line between Izyum and Siversk.  These towns all lie on the rail route between those cities, which also connects to Bakhmut.  Of course we've seen plenty of discussion about the importance of GLOC, especially rail supply lines, and how Ukraine's recapture of Kupyansk presaged the collapse of Russia's entire presence west of the Oskil river.  If that strategy of recapturing supply lines continues to work in the same way, then the current Ukrainian offensive seems like it could be meaningful.  Yet, looking at a map, it also seems like that rail line would be exceedingly difficult to defend from Russian artillery fire and/or sabotage.  It actually seems like the same type of GLOC parallel to the line of contact that proved so vulnerable to attack just a couple of weeks ago.  And there appear to be internal GLOC, including rail, that are more secure and still make their way from Izyum to Bakhmut.  So my question is whether you all think the success of Ukraine's attempt to recapture towns like Lyman and Yampil along this seemingly redundant and vulnerable rail line is actually a meaninful strategic offensive.  As of now, I'm a little skeptical.

[TrumpCard]

I note that Ukraine seems to be expending a lot of effort to recapture some small towns north of the SD river on the line between Izyum and Siversk.  These towns all lie on the rail route between those cities, which also connects to Bakhmut.  Of course we've seen plenty of discussion about the importance of GLOC, especially rail supply lines, and how Ukraine's recapture of Kupyansk presaged the collapse of Russia's entire presence west of the Oskil river.  If that strategy of recapturing supply lines continues to work in the same way, then the current Ukrainian offensive seems like it could be meaningful.  Yet, looking at a map, it also seems like that rail line would be exceedingly difficult to defend from Russian artillery fire and/or sabotage.  It actually seems like the same type of GLOC parallel to the line of contact that proved so vulnerable to attack just a couple of weeks ago.  And there appear to be internal GLOC, including rail, that are more secure and still make their way from Izyum to Bakhmut.  So my question is whether you all think the success of Ukraine's attempt to recapture towns like Lyman and Yampil along this seemingly redundant and vulnerable rail line is actually a meaninful strategic offensive.  As of now, I'm a little skeptical.

[OutsiderFan]

This may be totally off base, but... it seems the war is at a point where Ukraine taking back any more territory seized by Russia since 2014 would be considered good for Ukraine. Even if that territory isn't of significant strategic value (however that is being defined), Ukraine is a winner and Russia a loser. The more winning Ukraine does the worse Russia looks in terms of ROI for fighting Ukraine, and the more support for war in Russia erodes. Moreover, any more land Ukraine captures, the further into Russian held ground Ukrainian artillery can reach, and that is always a good thing for Ukraine.

[OutsiderFan]

This may be totally off base, but... it seems the war is at a point where Ukraine taking back any more territory seized by Russia since 2014 would be considered good for Ukraine. Even if that territory isn't of significant strategic value (however that is being defined), Ukraine is a winner and Russia a loser. The more winning Ukraine does the worse Russia looks in terms of ROI for fighting Ukraine, and the more support for war in Russia erodes. Moreover, any more land Ukraine captures, the further into Russian held ground Ukrainian artillery can reach, and that is always a good thing for Ukraine.

[Goose]

I note that Ukraine seems to be expending a lot of effort to recapture some small towns north of the SD river on the line between Izyum and Siversk.  These towns all lie on the rail route between those cities, which also connects to Bakhmut.  Of course we've seen plenty of discussion about the importance of GLOC, especially rail supply lines, and how Ukraine's recapture of Kupyansk presaged the collapse of Russia's entire presence west of the Oskil river.  If that strategy of recapturing supply lines continues to work in the same way, then the current Ukrainian offensive seems like it could be meaningful.  Yet, looking at a map, it also seems like that rail line would be exceedingly difficult to defend from Russian artillery fire and/or sabotage.  It actually seems like the same type of GLOC parallel to the line of contact that proved so vulnerable to attack just a couple of weeks ago.  And there appear to be internal GLOC, including rail, that are more secure and still make their way from Izyum to Bakhmut.  So my question is whether you all think the success of Ukraine's attempt to recapture towns like Lyman and Yampil along this seemingly redundant and vulnerable rail line is actually a meaninful strategic offensive.  As of now, I'm a little skeptical.

I don't think Ukraine is attacking down these rail lines in order to deny them to Russia. Ukraine already "owns" the other end, so nothing is coming that way in any case. These "cities" are political objectives in Donetsk. Ukraine wants to take back that area so they can say for sure Putin has failed in the Donbas and make a mockery of Russia "annexing" it. . There are probably also some tactical reasons they are doing this that I am not aware of. Eventually Ukraine may use these rail lines as GLOCS for their later advances, but I don't think this is a driver in the offensive.

[Goose]

I note that Ukraine seems to be expending a lot of effort to recapture some small towns north of the SD river on the line between Izyum and Siversk.  These towns all lie on the rail route between those cities, which also connects to Bakhmut.  Of course we've seen plenty of discussion about the importance of GLOC, especially rail supply lines, and how Ukraine's recapture of Kupyansk presaged the collapse of Russia's entire presence west of the Oskil river.  If that strategy of recapturing supply lines continues to work in the same way, then the current Ukrainian offensive seems like it could be meaningful.  Yet, looking at a map, it also seems like that rail line would be exceedingly difficult to defend from Russian artillery fire and/or sabotage.  It actually seems like the same type of GLOC parallel to the line of contact that proved so vulnerable to attack just a couple of weeks ago.  And there appear to be internal GLOC, including rail, that are more secure and still make their way from Izyum to Bakhmut.  So my question is whether you all think the success of Ukraine's attempt to recapture towns like Lyman and Yampil along this seemingly redundant and vulnerable rail line is actually a meaninful strategic offensive.  As of now, I'm a little skeptical.

I don't think Ukraine is attacking down these rail lines in order to deny them to Russia. Ukraine already "owns" the other end, so nothing is coming that way in any case. These "cities" are political objectives in Donetsk. Ukraine wants to take back that area so they can say for sure Putin has failed in the Donbas and make a mockery of Russia "annexing" it. . There are probably also some tactical reasons they are doing this that I am not aware of. Eventually Ukraine may use these rail lines as GLOCS for their later advances, but I don't think this is a driver in the offensive.

[TrumpCard]

Such a long slog ahead for Ukraine. Can’t imagine the number of casualties it’ll take to reclaim the Donbas. So many small towns, so many opportunities for Russia to engage in asymmetric attacks.

[TrumpCard]

Such a long slog ahead for Ukraine. Can’t imagine the number of casualties it’ll take to reclaim the Donbas. So many small towns, so many opportunities for Russia to engage in asymmetric attacks.

[qwerty49]

This sham referendum is an interesting play.  Once the results are announced, Ukraine is in the position of attacking "Russian soil."  Possible "justification" for use of tactical nukes on Putin's part.  Sigh.

[qwerty49]

This sham referendum is an interesting play.  Once the results are announced, Ukraine is in the position of attacking "Russian soil."  Possible "justification" for use of tactical nukes on Putin's part.  Sigh.

[OutsiderFan]

This sham referendum is an interesting play.  Once the results are announced, Ukraine is in the position of attacking "Russian soil."  Possible "justification" for use of tactical nukes on Putin's part.  Sigh.

Putin is not going to use nukes. It's all bluster. Just like the calling up of how many additional men to fight in Ukraine. 

I'm sure the Ukraine and allied military planners have ways of gaming out how to handle scenarios where there is a non zero chance of nuclear weapon use, and will be prepared to respond appropriately to anything Putin does.

Russia is going to lose in the long run. The question is just how many people die and how much damage is done before it is official. It doesn't look to me like the war is going to be too popular in Russia very much longer.

[OutsiderFan]

This sham referendum is an interesting play.  Once the results are announced, Ukraine is in the position of attacking "Russian soil."  Possible "justification" for use of tactical nukes on Putin's part.  Sigh.

Putin is not going to use nukes. It's all bluster. Just like the calling up of how many additional men to fight in Ukraine. 

I'm sure the Ukraine and allied military planners have ways of gaming out how to handle scenarios where there is a non zero chance of nuclear weapon use, and will be prepared to respond appropriately to anything Putin does.

Russia is going to lose in the long run. The question is just how many people die and how much damage is done before it is official. It doesn't look to me like the war is going to be too popular in Russia very much longer.

[Treefence]

Honestly I think these shame referendums will the opposite effect for Russia, in that now the world, if they ever did, won't take the Crimean referendum seriously.  We all knew it was a joke, but now there will be no difference between Ukraine taking back Crimea, verse the rest of their land.  No way Putin survives when they lose Crimea...

[Treefence]

Honestly I think these shame referendums will the opposite effect for Russia, in that now the world, if they ever did, won't take the Crimean referendum seriously.  We all knew it was a joke, but now there will be no difference between Ukraine taking back Crimea, verse the rest of their land.  No way Putin survives when they lose Crimea...

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/status/1573461389762609152?s=46&t=rz2tqks786QeWntBYfoFGQ[/tweet]

History has not been kind to those who thought they knew more than their generals.

BC

---

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are continuing their advance on Lyman.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1573522965265686528?s=46&t=rz2tqks786QeWntBYfoFGQ[/tweet]

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/status/1573461389762609152?s=46&t=rz2tqks786QeWntBYfoFGQ[/tweet]

History has not been kind to those who thought they knew more than their generals.

BC

---

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are continuing their advance on Lyman.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1573522965265686528?s=46&t=rz2tqks786QeWntBYfoFGQ[/tweet]

BC

[gocard14]

Unfortunately this offers a less sanguine view of the Kherson offensive, namely that it has been grinding and bloody for the Ukrainians. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world...ussia.html

[gocard14]

Unfortunately this offers a less sanguine view of the Kherson offensive, namely that it has been grinding and bloody for the Ukrainians. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world...ussia.html

[Hurlburt88]

I just read that Ukraine has mobilized 600K+ troops, and one reason Russia needed to mobilize the 300k announced this week is essentially to "keep up" because their number available to fight are actually less than Ukraine's.  I was surprised by this.   Russia's mobilization combined with rumored intel that Putin continues to think he can outlast NATO aid--particularly after mid-term elections and energy shortages in EUrope--continue to have me concerned about how long this can go.   Putin seems really mentally entrenched.

[Hurlburt88]

I just read that Ukraine has mobilized 600K+ troops, and one reason Russia needed to mobilize the 300k announced this week is essentially to "keep up" because their number available to fight are actually less than Ukraine's.  I was surprised by this.   Russia's mobilization combined with rumored intel that Putin continues to think he can outlast NATO aid--particularly after mid-term elections and energy shortages in EUrope--continue to have me concerned about how long this can go.   Putin seems really mentally entrenched.

[BostonCard]

Putin has fired his deputy defense minister.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63021117

BC

[BostonCard]

Putin has fired his deputy defense minister.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63021117

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jakecordell/status/1573647765082628096?s=46&t=DHcr7bMDYg1c5jFsx0KoFQ[/tweet]

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jakecordell/status/1573647765082628096?s=46&t=DHcr7bMDYg1c5jFsx0KoFQ[/tweet]

BC

[BostonCard]

Bad day for Russian aviation.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1573685526191902720?s=46&t=DHcr7bMDYg1c5jFsx0KoFQ[/tweet]

It’s been a bad war for Russia’s Air Force.

BC

[BostonCard]

Bad day for Russian aviation.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1573685526191902720?s=46&t=DHcr7bMDYg1c5jFsx0KoFQ[/tweet]

It’s been a bad war for Russia’s Air Force.

BC

[OutsiderFan]

When I posted asking how many actual legit fighting men Russia's "300,000" conscripts constitutes, this is one reason why. Even if they are trained well - which they aren't - if equipped like this, it won't much matter.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1573675621229596673[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

When I posted asking how many actual legit fighting men Russia's "300,000" conscripts constitutes, this is one reason why. Even if they are trained well - which they aren't - if equipped like this, it won't much matter.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1573675621229596673[/tweet]

[Mick]

Putin has fired his deputy defense minister.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63021117

BC

And replaced him with the Butcher of Mariupol, General Mikhail Mizintsev. Interesting choice. Put a thug in charge of an intellectually-driven logistics operation.  At least Bulgakov knew the process and work-arounds, and had inside knowledge of the manufacturers and suppliers. I don't see how The Butcher will be more successful.

[Mick]

Putin has fired his deputy defense minister.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63021117

BC

And replaced him with the Butcher of Mariupol, General Mikhail Mizintsev. Interesting choice. Put a thug in charge of an intellectually-driven logistics operation.  At least Bulgakov knew the process and work-arounds, and had inside knowledge of the manufacturers and suppliers. I don't see how The Butcher will be more successful.

[dabigv13]

Bad day for Russian aviation.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1573685526191902720?s=46&t=DHcr7bMDYg1c5jFsx0KoFQ[/tweet]

It’s been a bad war for Russia’s Air Force.

BC

Here's a different RuAF jet getting taken down, claimed Su30.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1573770428723724288?s=20&t=3rZnRzPR76QBdArzUpAkpg[/tweet]

And a KA52 helo.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573774205484777477?s=20&t=3rZnRzPR76QBdArzUpAkpg[/tweet]

And more in that thread, hard to ascertain if some are the same engagement but from different angles. But at least two Su30/34s and the helo are clearly different engagements. Could be one of their worst days of losses from the war, a bit behind the Saki airbase attack.

Edit:
The Ka52 helo hit now revised to be a different view of one of the Sukhois going down.

Here is a higher resolution video of the first Su30 video I posted.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...2wZMoB89uA[/tweet]

Looks like the pilots managed to parachute.

[dabigv13]

Bad day for Russian aviation.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1573685526191902720?s=46&t=DHcr7bMDYg1c5jFsx0KoFQ[/tweet]

It’s been a bad war for Russia’s Air Force.

BC

Here's a different RuAF jet getting taken down, claimed Su30.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1573770428723724288?s=20&t=3rZnRzPR76QBdArzUpAkpg[/tweet]

And a KA52 helo.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573774205484777477?s=20&t=3rZnRzPR76QBdArzUpAkpg[/tweet]

And more in that thread, hard to ascertain if some are the same engagement but from different angles. But at least two Su30/34s and the helo are clearly different engagements. Could be one of their worst days of losses from the war, a bit behind the Saki airbase attack.

Edit:
The Ka52 helo hit now revised to be a different view of one of the Sukhois going down.

Here is a higher resolution video of the first Su30 video I posted.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...2wZMoB89uA[/tweet]

Looks like the pilots managed to parachute.