(06-05-2022, 01:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...022-06-05/Up to and going into the American Civil War, the US Army and Navy had many of their top officers that were rather old, which complicated giving promotion to more active, younger officers.
BC
(06-05-2022, 01:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...022-06-05/Up to and going into the American Civil War, the US Army and Navy had many of their top officers that were rather old, which complicated giving promotion to more active, younger officers.
BC
(06-05-2022, 06:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/...alfOp8HvoQIndeed! His leadership has made Ukraine possible. Hard to imagine what would have happened without him. Also, who knew? I don't think even his greatest admirers expected this level of leadership.
Zelensky is truly an incredible wartime leader. Big brass balls.
(06-05-2022, 06:58 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/...alfOp8HvoQIndeed! His leadership has made Ukraine possible. Hard to imagine what would have happened without him. Also, who knew? I don't think even his greatest admirers expected this level of leadership.
Zelensky is truly an incredible wartime leader. Big brass balls.
(06-05-2022, 07:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Given that he was an actor playing an accidental president, “fake it till you make it” takes on a whole new meaning.
I will say that times like these reveal the best and worst of people. Zelensky’s reform efforts were half-hearted and his leadership pre-war was undistinguished. As a wartime leader, he has indeed been superb.
BC
(06-05-2022, 06:57 PM)M T Wrote: Maybe this is a strategic war to weed out senior staff and to provide room for advancement within the Russian military? (;-)
(06-05-2022, 07:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Given that he was an actor playing an accidental president, “fake it till you make it” takes on a whole new meaning.
I will say that times like these reveal the best and worst of people. Zelensky’s reform efforts were half-hearted and his leadership pre-war was undistinguished. As a wartime leader, he has indeed been superb.
BC
(06-05-2022, 06:57 PM)M T Wrote: Maybe this is a strategic war to weed out senior staff and to provide room for advancement within the Russian military? (;-)
(05-27-2022, 02:11 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: It looks like Severodonetsk and the remaining sliver of Luhansk not under Russian/separatist control is slowly being taken by the Russians. Ukraine has blown some bridges and retreated from some of the front areas there. Whether Russia can then quickly reduce Severodonetsk and push further west seems to be the question.
(05-27-2022, 02:11 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: It looks like Severodonetsk and the remaining sliver of Luhansk not under Russian/separatist control is slowly being taken by the Russians. Ukraine has blown some bridges and retreated from some of the front areas there. Whether Russia can then quickly reduce Severodonetsk and push further west seems to be the question.
(06-08-2022, 05:25 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Seems like Turkey's objections to Sweden and Finland's application to join NATO may be more difficult to overcome than previously acknowledged. And I wonder whether Sweden and Finland joining is really so likely anyway. Seems plausible that any negotiated resolution could include a NATO bar on FIN and SWE as well as a NATO bar on UKR. If the idea is to let Putin save face and give him something, I would rather see that than ceding territory.
(06-08-2022, 05:25 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Seems like Turkey's objections to Sweden and Finland's application to join NATO may be more difficult to overcome than previously acknowledged. And I wonder whether Sweden and Finland joining is really so likely anyway. Seems plausible that any negotiated resolution could include a NATO bar on FIN and SWE as well as a NATO bar on UKR. If the idea is to let Putin save face and give him something, I would rather see that than ceding territory.
(06-08-2022, 08:57 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Turkey wants F16s, and because they bought S400 from Russia they are on the shitlist and only congress can get them off. Biden may have to muscle Menendez on it. I think Sweden and Finland will make it eventually but there will be some protracted horse trading.
(06-08-2022, 08:57 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Turkey wants F16s, and because they bought S400 from Russia they are on the shitlist and only congress can get them off. Biden may have to muscle Menendez on it. I think Sweden and Finland will make it eventually but there will be some protracted horse trading.
(06-08-2022, 10:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Hard for any of us to judge Erdogan's true intentions, but he apparently encouraged the Finns to apply and told the Finnish PM that Turkey would support them joining NATO, back in April.Take a look at https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/dipl...-obstacles date April 4. Also https://nationworldnews.com/nato-chief-t...-alliance/ originally published 4/6/2022. Clearly, there was some significant concern back in April about Erdogan's position. If you have a reference for him "encouraging" Finland to apply, I would like to read it. In any case, was it a public statement saying Turkey would not stand in the way of Finland and Sweden joining NATO? If not, IMHO NATO did indeed commit a grievous error.
So I'm not sure he's that serious about the PKK stuff. I don't think US or anyone else in NATO screwed the pooch. Erdogan just doing his thing.
(06-08-2022, 10:47 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Hard for any of us to judge Erdogan's true intentions, but he apparently encouraged the Finns to apply and told the Finnish PM that Turkey would support them joining NATO, back in April.Take a look at https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/dipl...-obstacles date April 4. Also https://nationworldnews.com/nato-chief-t...-alliance/ originally published 4/6/2022. Clearly, there was some significant concern back in April about Erdogan's position. If you have a reference for him "encouraging" Finland to apply, I would like to read it. In any case, was it a public statement saying Turkey would not stand in the way of Finland and Sweden joining NATO? If not, IMHO NATO did indeed commit a grievous error.
So I'm not sure he's that serious about the PKK stuff. I don't think US or anyone else in NATO screwed the pooch. Erdogan just doing his thing.
Quote:IN AN INTERVIEW WITH IS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE Republic Sauli Niinistö said that there was no reason to doubt Turkey's position before Erdogan's sharp exits.
According to Niinistö, in a telephone conversation on 4 April, Erdogan clearly expressed his support for Finland's efforts.
- At the end of a rather long discussion, he said that you are applying for NATO membership, we will look at it favorably, we will assess it favorably , Niinistö says.
Quote:IN AN INTERVIEW WITH IS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE Republic Sauli Niinistö said that there was no reason to doubt Turkey's position before Erdogan's sharp exits.
According to Niinistö, in a telephone conversation on 4 April, Erdogan clearly expressed his support for Finland's efforts.
- At the end of a rather long discussion, he said that you are applying for NATO membership, we will look at it favorably, we will assess it favorably , Niinistö says.
(06-09-2022, 07:52 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: I'm not certain but I think the second article you linked was perhaps from June 4th, with date written in Euro style. Finland and Sweden had not applied for NATO membership by April 6th.The article was listed as "revised" five days ago, but it shows up in a Google search for dates between April 1 to April 30. I imagine the "original" was in April and the later revisions applied the NATO membership updates. I think Google uses the original post date, not a date from the article text, but that may not be the case.
Quote:This was apparently a discussion Erdogan had with Finnish president Niinisto in April. The first article you linked I think touches on this same discussion, but Niinisto now is revealing what Erdogan told him regarding Finnish accession to NATO.This is a good article IMHO. However, one has to consider the entirety of its content.
Quote:IN AN INTERVIEW WITH IS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE Republic Sauli Niinistö said that there was no reason to doubt Turkey's position before Erdogan's sharp exits.
According to Niinistö, in a telephone conversation on 4 April, Erdogan clearly expressed his support for Finland's efforts.
- At the end of a rather long discussion, he said that you are applying for NATO membership, we will look at it favorably, we will assess it favorably , Niinistö says.
https://www.is.fi/politiikka/art-2000008869077.html
Quote:It is noteworthy that the Turkish Chancellery tweeted, following a discussion between Niinistö and Erdogan on 4 April, that Erdogan had expressed in a call his expectations for the lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey.Riiiight. The Turks were diplomatic enough to not explicitly link removing the embargo as the cost of their support, but they did raise the issue in the same phone call and "Erdogan had expressed in a call his expectations for the lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey." Of course they were linked. Only somebody who is exercising very wishful thinking could believe they were not. The Turks are sensitive to blackmail and they assumed the Finns probably would be too. No need for anybody to "lose face".
Niinistö told STT that the arms export issue did not appear to be a condition for Finland's NATO membership, but “there was a separate discussion about this”.
Why did you think this was a separate discussion when for Erdogan it seems to have been one of the main themes? How could it be assessed that lifting the arms embargo would not be a condition for Finland's NATO membership?
- The absence of such a condition. These things had nothing to do with it, it was one thing he raised, among other things. Besides, we apparently still have things open, no negative solution has been announced for arms export requests, which do not seem to be even deadly weapons requests. They are resolved on a case-by-case basis.
Quote:Erdogan is moving the goalposts. Maybe that should have been anticipated more by NATO, Finland, and Sweden, but my estimation is that Erdogan was always going to try to and get maximal leverage for his vote and publicly stating support for Finnish/Swedish accession before it's even declared throws away that leverage. I am skeptical NATO could have done much more on this,A very reasonable assumption. IMHO you are exactly correct. That is why it was essential to get any quid pro quo out of the way before things became public. The only way to be relatively sure that is accomplished is for Erdogan to throw away that leverage. Until he does that, there is no agreement you can count on. NATO most certainly could have and should have done this. It may be that no agreement could be reached, in which case an alternative arrangement with Finland and Sweden may have been necessary. Allowing this dispute to "go public" was absolutely avoidable and should have been.
Quote:but I am pretty optimistic this will get sorted eventually, because if it doesn't then Erdogan gets nothing.I am not so optimistic as you are, especially since this thing will now be publicly negotiated. I think the idea Erdogan gets nothing is dangerously wrong. What he gets at this point, no matter how things play out, is the ability to show the Turkish people (and the rest of the Muslim world, which is important to him) that he protects them from exploration and disrespect by "the West" and that he protects his countries interests no matter what. He is not a "lackey" of the EU or the US who think they are "better" than us Turks. This is very important to him.
(06-09-2022, 07:52 AM)dabigv13 Wrote: I'm not certain but I think the second article you linked was perhaps from June 4th, with date written in Euro style. Finland and Sweden had not applied for NATO membership by April 6th.The article was listed as "revised" five days ago, but it shows up in a Google search for dates between April 1 to April 30. I imagine the "original" was in April and the later revisions applied the NATO membership updates. I think Google uses the original post date, not a date from the article text, but that may not be the case.
Quote:This was apparently a discussion Erdogan had with Finnish president Niinisto in April. The first article you linked I think touches on this same discussion, but Niinisto now is revealing what Erdogan told him regarding Finnish accession to NATO.This is a good article IMHO. However, one has to consider the entirety of its content.
Quote:IN AN INTERVIEW WITH IS, THE PRESIDENT OF THE Republic Sauli Niinistö said that there was no reason to doubt Turkey's position before Erdogan's sharp exits.
According to Niinistö, in a telephone conversation on 4 April, Erdogan clearly expressed his support for Finland's efforts.
- At the end of a rather long discussion, he said that you are applying for NATO membership, we will look at it favorably, we will assess it favorably , Niinistö says.
https://www.is.fi/politiikka/art-2000008869077.html
Quote:It is noteworthy that the Turkish Chancellery tweeted, following a discussion between Niinistö and Erdogan on 4 April, that Erdogan had expressed in a call his expectations for the lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey.Riiiight. The Turks were diplomatic enough to not explicitly link removing the embargo as the cost of their support, but they did raise the issue in the same phone call and "Erdogan had expressed in a call his expectations for the lifting of the arms embargo on Turkey." Of course they were linked. Only somebody who is exercising very wishful thinking could believe they were not. The Turks are sensitive to blackmail and they assumed the Finns probably would be too. No need for anybody to "lose face".
Niinistö told STT that the arms export issue did not appear to be a condition for Finland's NATO membership, but “there was a separate discussion about this”.
Why did you think this was a separate discussion when for Erdogan it seems to have been one of the main themes? How could it be assessed that lifting the arms embargo would not be a condition for Finland's NATO membership?
- The absence of such a condition. These things had nothing to do with it, it was one thing he raised, among other things. Besides, we apparently still have things open, no negative solution has been announced for arms export requests, which do not seem to be even deadly weapons requests. They are resolved on a case-by-case basis.
Quote:Erdogan is moving the goalposts. Maybe that should have been anticipated more by NATO, Finland, and Sweden, but my estimation is that Erdogan was always going to try to and get maximal leverage for his vote and publicly stating support for Finnish/Swedish accession before it's even declared throws away that leverage. I am skeptical NATO could have done much more on this,A very reasonable assumption. IMHO you are exactly correct. That is why it was essential to get any quid pro quo out of the way before things became public. The only way to be relatively sure that is accomplished is for Erdogan to throw away that leverage. Until he does that, there is no agreement you can count on. NATO most certainly could have and should have done this. It may be that no agreement could be reached, in which case an alternative arrangement with Finland and Sweden may have been necessary. Allowing this dispute to "go public" was absolutely avoidable and should have been.
Quote:but I am pretty optimistic this will get sorted eventually, because if it doesn't then Erdogan gets nothing.I am not so optimistic as you are, especially since this thing will now be publicly negotiated. I think the idea Erdogan gets nothing is dangerously wrong. What he gets at this point, no matter how things play out, is the ability to show the Turkish people (and the rest of the Muslim world, which is important to him) that he protects them from exploration and disrespect by "the West" and that he protects his countries interests no matter what. He is not a "lackey" of the EU or the US who think they are "better" than us Turks. This is very important to him.
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