(05-07-2022, 08:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: And they don't necessarily need to use APCs to move their units. They can and have been using plain old SUVs if you watch the videos they have put out from the Kharkiv counteroffensive. They control their territory and can move through it freely away from the very frontlines. Another reason why Russia's inability to establish air superiority has been terrible for them.
They have also just recently allowed for TDF "dad's army" (but often made up of recent Donbas veterans) to be redeployed away from their home areas.
I think we are seeing the Russian's offensive culmination now. Ukraine will probably continue their gains around Kharkiv and Kherson in the next few weeks, and a few weeks down the line will probably start to regain in the Donbas. The first M777s are just now starting to be deployed.
I suspect Russia is going to start losing like Hemingway wrote about bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly.
The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to move small units (company sized at most) using SUVs over relatively short distances using the road network when not in contact with the enemy. In contact with the enemy, or in situations where a meeting engagement is probable, SUVs are a death trap. They provide very minimal protection from small arms fire, let alone 12.5 mm machine gun fire or RPGs. SUVs will of course be shredded by the weapons on a BMP/BTR or any form of ATGM. SUVs are vulnerable to even pretty distant misses with mortars or artillery. SUVs also have very limited cross country capability. Every road in Ukraine is already zeroed for artillery fire. Just use Google maps to get the lat long. SUVs have no mine resistance, and we know from Kiev how the Russians like to mine the roads when they are forced to retreat.
There is a reason (well, actually lots of reasons) why "battle taxis" exist. Mechanized infantry will stay in their IVFs as long as they can safely do so. In order to fight a real battle, they will dismount and fight as infantry, but they will avoid that as long as possible. If you dismount, you can only move at a walking pace. While mounted, you can move much faster and hopefully maneuver to outflank or surround your opponent.. Your opponent may chose to retreat in order to avoid this. By staying mounted, you can press the retreat and hopefully the "suddenly" happens.
Russia was able to back away from Kiev with few losses because Ukraine could not move their "leg" infantry fast enough to keep up with the Russians mounted retreat. Ukraine can't use SUVs as IFVs because one squad armed with small arms can bring an SUV convoy to a halt. The SUVs can't blow through the small arms fire and can't get off the road to outflank it. Even if proper tactical spacing was maintained, you have lost your point vehicle and everybody in it. Gives new meaning to "next man up". The troops have to dismount, force the squad to fall back, get back in the SUVs, drive 100 meters to the next delaying point, and repeat. God forbid some enterprising squad leader calls in a linear stonk on the road. Yes, even the Russians in their current sorry state can do that. The Ukrainians aren't foolish enough to attempt something like this, but therefore "suddenly" doesn't happen.
If one looks at the Russian efforts in Ukraine they do pretty well until they hit a built-up area where the Ukraine can concentrate their forces (and where there are already local forces present in numbers). Then Russia runs into serious resistance and often just bashes their head against the wall until they give up. What Ukraine needs is a mobile strategic reserve that can then smack the retreating Russians so hard they collapse. This same strategic reserve can be used to plug any significant breach in the line the Russians may open. As has been pointed out by others many times, Russia doesn't have enough troops to actually "occupy" Ukraine. Ukraine's problem is that their lack of mobility prevents them from taking any chances. If the Russians do find an exploitable weak point (which they have been looking for in the Donbas for the last three weeks) Ukraine can't currently rush troops to that spot. SUVs can't bring the troops onto the battlefield to dismount and fight and also can't come onto the battlefield, mount them up and advance/retreat either. They have to walk at least 10k or so, and that delay is critical. Your mounted opponents just blew through and are now behind you. Instead, you give up the 10k and defend there. That has been the story in the Donbas until recently. Slowly being pushed back.
Ukraine is now getting the weapons it needs for a more aggressive and more mobile form of warfare. Like it or not, it is going to take them some time to become "good" at it. We need to set our expectations accordingly. The fact Ukraine isn't very mobile and the fact that Russia can't seem to use their mobility (or air power for that matter) makes this war more like WW I than anything else. Frankly, I keep expecting one side or the other to "get it together" and get a move on. Right now, Ukraine has better morale and much better leadership, both civilian and military. They previously didn't have the means. They are now getting the means, although not as fast and as complete (MLRS anyone?) as they would like. Hopefully they will be the one that produces "suddenly".
