[Snorlax94]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1333550152011837440?s=20[/tweet]
Previously, Pfizer announced that it would have 6.4 million doses of vaccine ready to ship in mid-December, and HHS Secretary Alex Azar previously indicated "Initial Batch Of COVID-19 Vaccines Will Go To States Based On Population, Not Risk."

CA has more than 12% of the US's population. Its proportional share of Pfizer vaccine should then be more than 770,000 doses -- not 327,000 doses.

Maybe there's been a misunderstanding somewhere (maybe CA will receive doses for 327,000 people -- 654,000 doses) but if indeed there were no errors and CA is set to receive 327,000 of those initial 6.4M doses of the Pfizer vaccine -- where are the other 440,000 doses for California's proportional allotment disappearing off to?

The only other state I've seen to announce how many doses they are receiving is Michigan, which has said they expect "hundreds of thousands of doses" in mid-December. That sounds close to as many as CA is getting. Is a state with about 1/4 the population of CA getting as many doses?

The ironic thing is that you'd think California would be well-positioned to be able to handle the temperature requirements of the Pfizer vaccine, and has many medical schools that could help study how safe and effective the vaccine is.

If this is correct and ends up being California's lot in life -- to receive less than half of the vaccine that it should, while ignoring California's capabilities to distribute a difficult-to-distribute drug, its many research medical schools and labs, its challenges as a heavily-travelled state, and its role as a business center (with over 13.5% of the US's economy), well, at least then there will be a change in government in mid-January.

[Snorlax94]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1333550152011837440?s=20[/tweet]
Previously, Pfizer announced that it would have 6.4 million doses of vaccine ready to ship in mid-December, and HHS Secretary Alex Azar previously indicated "Initial Batch Of COVID-19 Vaccines Will Go To States Based On Population, Not Risk."

CA has more than 12% of the US's population. Its proportional share of Pfizer vaccine should then be more than 770,000 doses -- not 327,000 doses.

Maybe there's been a misunderstanding somewhere (maybe CA will receive doses for 327,000 people -- 654,000 doses) but if indeed there were no errors and CA is set to receive 327,000 of those initial 6.4M doses of the Pfizer vaccine -- where are the other 440,000 doses for California's proportional allotment disappearing off to?

The only other state I've seen to announce how many doses they are receiving is Michigan, which has said they expect "hundreds of thousands of doses" in mid-December. That sounds close to as many as CA is getting. Is a state with about 1/4 the population of CA getting as many doses?

The ironic thing is that you'd think California would be well-positioned to be able to handle the temperature requirements of the Pfizer vaccine, and has many medical schools that could help study how safe and effective the vaccine is.

If this is correct and ends up being California's lot in life -- to receive less than half of the vaccine that it should, while ignoring California's capabilities to distribute a difficult-to-distribute drug, its many research medical schools and labs, its challenges as a heavily-travelled state, and its role as a business center (with over 13.5% of the US's economy), well, at least then there will be a change in government in mid-January.

[M T]

Newsom doesn't say that is is all that California is getting in mid-Dec.  I don't know, but maybe it is the initial batch (see below) that will then be followed up with the rest of the initial allocation if all goes well.  (Both California and Washington have indicated their initial delivery is about 42% of their expected share of 6.4M doses)

Regarding the 6.4M doses.  General Perna didn't directly specify that it Pfizer vaccine, but it was clear he was talking about the initial delivery, which will be Pfizer.  Moderna initial delivery may be a week later.  The 6.4M doses (initial doses only, not counting 2nd doses) is a best estimate he made on Nov. 20 of how many doses would be available at the time of the first opportunity to ship. (34:45 in the video).   It is possible that the estimate of vaccines available has changed.

Regarding per capita distribution plan.  At 45:00 in the video, the Secretary indicated clearly that the distribution, from the beginning, would be allocated on the basis of the number of people over the age of 18.  Moreover, he explained why it was that way.  Also, I will note that the term was "people", not "citizens".

A recent news article and press conference video at the Operation Warp Speed site may give some hints for the other doses.

Nov 24: "Once the Food and Drug Administration authorizes the vaccines from pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna, they will be distributed to any location in America that the state approves as the provider, he said. Officials are now working with each jurisdiction to plan and then figure out allocation within the states.
  "After issuing the initial batch, called the "safety stock," officials will monitor providers to ensure they're following the guidelines, he said. Once there is confidence that the process is being followed correctly, more vaccines will be made available to them.
  "Pfizer is implementing a very aggressive approach to figuring out how to get their product out to the administration sites, he said. ....
  "There are 54 locations where this training is taking place, he said. As Pfizer has worked with those sites "we see growing confidence in everybody [who is] using it.
   "the Moderna variety will make it easier to get to more rural areas."

In the press conference video (2:00) there is a mention of 64 jurisdictions.
The "54 locations" in the text was, I believe, a mistake.  The General spoke of 4, then 10 locations and a "remaining 54 locations" so I suspect it was 64 locations, one for each jurisdiction.

The estimate remains of 40M doses by end of December. (I presume that is Pfizer + Moderna)

Elsewhere, I found this

For Operation Warp Speed, the 64 jurisdictions include the following:

• 50 states
  
• 8 U.S. territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, North Mariana Islands, Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands)
  
• 6 major metropolitan cities (Chicago, Houston, San Antonio, New York City, Washington D.C.)
  

Additionally, five federal agencies will be treated much like jurisdictions when it comes to allocations. Those include Department of Defense, Department of State, Bureau of Prisons, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Indian Health Service.

Los Angeles isn't called out separately as a major metropolitan city for this purpose.  It shouldn't matter as the State of California will obviously direct the appropriate allocation to L.A.   (Treating DC as its a jurisdiction makes sense.  But why San Antonio (#7 city in US))

---

Some math.  The Census Bureau indicates in 2019, CA had 39,512,223 (July 1, 2019) of which 77.5% were 18 and over.  That's 30,662,000.
The US was 328,239,523 on that date of which 77.7% were 18 and over.  That's 255,042,000.  So, CA is 12.02% of the population.  12.02% of the 6.4M doses would be 769,429 doses.  (327K is 42.5% of 769,429)

Washington State is receiving 62,400 doses initially and 200,000 of Pfizer by end of Dec.  (5,954,846 18+, or 2.335%, so due 149,430 doses of the 6.4M; 934K doses of the 40M Moderna + Pfizer)  62,400 is 41.7% of 149,430.

[M T]

Newsom doesn't say that is is all that California is getting in mid-Dec.  I don't know, but maybe it is the initial batch (see below) that will then be followed up with the rest of the initial allocation if all goes well.  (Both California and Washington have indicated their initial delivery is about 42% of their expected share of 6.4M doses)

Regarding the 6.4M doses.  General Perna didn't directly specify that it Pfizer vaccine, but it was clear he was talking about the initial delivery, which will be Pfizer.  Moderna initial delivery may be a week later.  The 6.4M doses (initial doses only, not counting 2nd doses) is a best estimate he made on Nov. 20 of how many doses would be available at the time of the first opportunity to ship. (34:45 in the video).   It is possible that the estimate of vaccines available has changed.

Regarding per capita distribution plan.  At 45:00 in the video, the Secretary indicated clearly that the distribution, from the beginning, would be allocated on the basis of the number of people over the age of 18.  Moreover, he explained why it was that way.  Also, I will note that the term was "people", not "citizens".

A recent news article and press conference video at the Operation Warp Speed site may give some hints for the other doses.

Nov 24: "Once the Food and Drug Administration authorizes the vaccines from pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna, they will be distributed to any location in America that the state approves as the provider, he said. Officials are now working with each jurisdiction to plan and then figure out allocation within the states.
  "After issuing the initial batch, called the "safety stock," officials will monitor providers to ensure they're following the guidelines, he said. Once there is confidence that the process is being followed correctly, more vaccines will be made available to them.
  "Pfizer is implementing a very aggressive approach to figuring out how to get their product out to the administration sites, he said. ....
  "There are 54 locations where this training is taking place, he said. As Pfizer has worked with those sites "we see growing confidence in everybody [who is] using it.
   "the Moderna variety will make it easier to get to more rural areas."

In the press conference video (2:00) there is a mention of 64 jurisdictions.
The "54 locations" in the text was, I believe, a mistake.  The General spoke of 4, then 10 locations and a "remaining 54 locations" so I suspect it was 64 locations, one for each jurisdiction.

The estimate remains of 40M doses by end of December. (I presume that is Pfizer + Moderna)

Elsewhere, I found this

For Operation Warp Speed, the 64 jurisdictions include the following:

• 50 states
  
• 8 U.S. territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, North Mariana Islands, Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands)
  
• 6 major metropolitan cities (Chicago, Houston, San Antonio, New York City, Washington D.C.)
  

Additionally, five federal agencies will be treated much like jurisdictions when it comes to allocations. Those include Department of Defense, Department of State, Bureau of Prisons, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Indian Health Service.

Los Angeles isn't called out separately as a major metropolitan city for this purpose.  It shouldn't matter as the State of California will obviously direct the appropriate allocation to L.A.   (Treating DC as its a jurisdiction makes sense.  But why San Antonio (#7 city in US))

---

Some math.  The Census Bureau indicates in 2019, CA had 39,512,223 (July 1, 2019) of which 77.5% were 18 and over.  That's 30,662,000.
The US was 328,239,523 on that date of which 77.7% were 18 and over.  That's 255,042,000.  So, CA is 12.02% of the population.  12.02% of the 6.4M doses would be 769,429 doses.  (327K is 42.5% of 769,429)

Washington State is receiving 62,400 doses initially and 200,000 of Pfizer by end of Dec.  (5,954,846 18+, or 2.335%, so due 149,430 doses of the 6.4M; 934K doses of the 40M Moderna + Pfizer)  62,400 is 41.7% of 149,430.

[OutsiderFan]

Not sure about the other vaccines, but Pfizer requires two doses, so you can take the number for the states and cut in half.  IOW, don't think a dose is equivalent to one person being vaccinated.

Even if CA was getting 400,000 doses, that would be just 200,000 people. In a state of 40,000,000, that's .05% of the population. You need what, at least 70% vaccination rate to effectively stop virus spread?

We are a loooong way from any vaccine having a material impact stopping the pandemic.

[OutsiderFan]

Not sure about the other vaccines, but Pfizer requires two doses, so you can take the number for the states and cut in half.  IOW, don't think a dose is equivalent to one person being vaccinated.

Even if CA was getting 400,000 doses, that would be just 200,000 people. In a state of 40,000,000, that's .05% of the population. You need what, at least 70% vaccination rate to effectively stop virus spread?

We are a loooong way from any vaccine having a material impact stopping the pandemic.

[Mick]

We are a loooong way from any vaccine having a material impact stopping the pandemic.

About six months, I would reckon...

[Mick]

We are a loooong way from any vaccine having a material impact stopping the pandemic.

About six months, I would reckon...

[Genuine Realist]

We are a loooong way from any vaccine having a material impact stopping the pandemic.

About six months, I would reckon...

Such caviling. The delivery of ANY vaccine is tremendously encouraging.

Manufacturing capabilities and efficiencies tend to grow exponentially, as plants are converted and confidence in quality control and other procedures expands. So say 120 days - major inroads, at least.

[Genuine Realist]

We are a loooong way from any vaccine having a material impact stopping the pandemic.

About six months, I would reckon...

Such caviling. The delivery of ANY vaccine is tremendously encouraging.

Manufacturing capabilities and efficiencies tend to grow exponentially, as plants are converted and confidence in quality control and other procedures expands. So say 120 days - major inroads, at least.

[BostonCard]

Slaoui (head of Warp speed) was quoted as saying that by June everyone who wants a vaccine will have access to it, and that we could have herd immunity by May.

BC

[BostonCard]

Slaoui (head of Warp speed) was quoted as saying that by June everyone who wants a vaccine will have access to it, and that we could have herd immunity by May.

BC