[OutsiderFan]

After looking at the numbers in Europe this morning, I'm starting to feel a lot like I did in February when I made the post that gave birth to this Covid-19 board. Even Germany - which arguably has handled the pandemic better than any free G7 country - is starting to see a steep ramp in cases.

Does anyone here know how many restrictions have been and are in place in Italy, Spain, France, and Germany?  The basic tools in the toolbox:

- Mandatory mask wearing
- Bar and nightclub closures
- Indoor religious services
- Indoor and outdoor dining restrictions
- Limits on gathering sizes

I'm hoping this thread can evolve into a discussion about virus epidemiology in the context of what is coming at us in terms of second wave of increased virus spread, in the context of what is driving the increases in Europe.  We know from our experience in March and April that the U.S. lags about a month or so behind Europe with this pandemic's growth and retraction behavior, but the spread is going to be a function of what restrictions are in place in various states or the country, and also the climate (temps) therein.

We are much more experienced dealing with this pandemic now than 7 months ago, but that doesn't mean it can't come roaring back in some places and re-assert itself basically everywhere.  Please share your thoughts on what you know about European country policies vis-a-vis spread, and what you think about climate impact on spread and how you think the U.S. will be impacted through this month in particular.

[OutsiderFan]

After looking at the numbers in Europe this morning, I'm starting to feel a lot like I did in February when I made the post that gave birth to this Covid-19 board. Even Germany - which arguably has handled the pandemic better than any free G7 country - is starting to see a steep ramp in cases.

Does anyone here know how many restrictions have been and are in place in Italy, Spain, France, and Germany?  The basic tools in the toolbox:

- Mandatory mask wearing
- Bar and nightclub closures
- Indoor religious services
- Indoor and outdoor dining restrictions
- Limits on gathering sizes

I'm hoping this thread can evolve into a discussion about virus epidemiology in the context of what is coming at us in terms of second wave of increased virus spread, in the context of what is driving the increases in Europe.  We know from our experience in March and April that the U.S. lags about a month or so behind Europe with this pandemic's growth and retraction behavior, but the spread is going to be a function of what restrictions are in place in various states or the country, and also the climate (temps) therein.

We are much more experienced dealing with this pandemic now than 7 months ago, but that doesn't mean it can't come roaring back in some places and re-assert itself basically everywhere.  Please share your thoughts on what you know about European country policies vis-a-vis spread, and what you think about climate impact on spread and how you think the U.S. will be impacted through this month in particular.

[BostonCard]

One thing I've noticed is that the virus is very capricious, and frequently defies prediction.  I think it is more probable than not that we will see another big outbreak over the winter, perhaps worse than what we saw in the summer.  That being said, I have low confidence in that prediction, and I wouldn't be shocked if the we continue as we have, with waxing and waning infections that don't have any clearly identifiable pattern.  I think at least part of that is that the virus is driven in large part by super-spreader events, and these things are stochastic.  You have to have the right person (a person capable of super-spreading), at the right time (at or near their peak infectiousness but before they become symptomatic), in the right venue (an enclosed area with lots of people).

BC

[BostonCard]

One thing I've noticed is that the virus is very capricious, and frequently defies prediction.  I think it is more probable than not that we will see another big outbreak over the winter, perhaps worse than what we saw in the summer.  That being said, I have low confidence in that prediction, and I wouldn't be shocked if the we continue as we have, with waxing and waning infections that don't have any clearly identifiable pattern.  I think at least part of that is that the virus is driven in large part by super-spreader events, and these things are stochastic.  You have to have the right person (a person capable of super-spreading), at the right time (at or near their peak infectiousness but before they become symptomatic), in the right venue (an enclosed area with lots of people).

BC

[Mick]

Doesn't surprise me that cases are increasing.  I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning.  They have a posted limit of six customers, six feet apart.  There were 19 customers in the store, lots of askew masks, no N95s (not that there should have been).  

Turned around and walked out.

[Mick]

Doesn't surprise me that cases are increasing.  I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning.  They have a posted limit of six customers, six feet apart.  There were 19 customers in the store, lots of askew masks, no N95s (not that there should have been).  

Turned around and walked out.

[oldalum]

 I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning. . . .
Turned around and walked out.

Good move, they're not real bagels. Come down to Izzy's sometime.

[oldalum]

 I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning. . . .
Turned around and walked out.

Good move, they're not real bagels. Come down to Izzy's sometime.

[Mick]

 I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning. . . .
Turned around and walked out.

Good move, they're not real bagels. Come down to Izzy's sometime.

Agreed, they're not real bagels.  House of Bagels were much better.

[Mick]

 I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning. . . .
Turned around and walked out.

Good move, they're not real bagels. Come down to Izzy's sometime.

Agreed, they're not real bagels.  House of Bagels were much better.

[BostonCard]

For real Bagels in the Bay Area, try David's Bagels.

https://davidsbagelspacifica.com/

Here are the Yelp reviews, if you are interested:

https://www.yelp.com/biz/davids-bagels-p...a?start=20

34 reviews; 33 are 5* and 1 in 4*

BC

[BostonCard]

For real Bagels in the Bay Area, try David's Bagels.

https://davidsbagelspacifica.com/

Here are the Yelp reviews, if you are interested:

https://www.yelp.com/biz/davids-bagels-p...a?start=20

34 reviews; 33 are 5* and 1 in 4*

BC

[BrevinsBest]

What is a real bagel? I went to NY in late January (didn't get COVID) and went to some of the highly recommended bagel shops...and came away thoroughly unimpressed. NY water blah blah blah. Maybe I'm missing something but they just weren't that good. 

My understanding is that bagels need to be boiled before baking, but what else makes a bagel a bagel?

Call me a skeptic. I'll stick with my local House of Bagels.

[BrevinsBest]

What is a real bagel? I went to NY in late January (didn't get COVID) and went to some of the highly recommended bagel shops...and came away thoroughly unimpressed. NY water blah blah blah. Maybe I'm missing something but they just weren't that good. 

My understanding is that bagels need to be boiled before baking, but what else makes a bagel a bagel?

Call me a skeptic. I'll stick with my local House of Bagels.

[Mick]

What is a real bagel? I went to NY in late January (didn't get COVID) and went to some of the highly recommended bagel shops...and came away thoroughly unimpressed. NY water blah blah blah. Maybe I'm missing something but they just weren't that good. 

My understanding is that bagels need to be boiled before baking, but what else makes a bagel a bagel?

Call me a skeptic. I'll stick with my local House of Bagels.

As long as we're on that topic, New York pizza has my vote for Most Overrated Geographic Specialty Fast Food.  Not far behind it is its cousin, Chicago style pizza and no one prefers the Domino's/Caesar's/PapaJohn's style pizza.  I'd rather have an Applewood Pizza (yes, I know it's gone) than any pizza outside of California.  Heck, I'd rather have a Round Table pizza (but with the old style crust) over non-California pizzas.

[Mick]

What is a real bagel? I went to NY in late January (didn't get COVID) and went to some of the highly recommended bagel shops...and came away thoroughly unimpressed. NY water blah blah blah. Maybe I'm missing something but they just weren't that good. 

My understanding is that bagels need to be boiled before baking, but what else makes a bagel a bagel?

Call me a skeptic. I'll stick with my local House of Bagels.

As long as we're on that topic, New York pizza has my vote for Most Overrated Geographic Specialty Fast Food.  Not far behind it is its cousin, Chicago style pizza and no one prefers the Domino's/Caesar's/PapaJohn's style pizza.  I'd rather have an Applewood Pizza (yes, I know it's gone) than any pizza outside of California.  Heck, I'd rather have a Round Table pizza (but with the old style crust) over non-California pizzas.

[BostonCard]

Two words about Pizza: New Haven

Also, Montreal is very underrated vis a vis Bagels

Oh, and we have strayed far into Terry rule territory.

BC

[BostonCard]

Two words about Pizza: New Haven

Also, Montreal is very underrated vis a vis Bagels

Oh, and we have strayed far into Terry rule territory.

BC

[2006alum]

Two words about Pizza: New Haven

Also, Montreal is very underrated vis a vis Bagels

Oh, and we have strayed far into Terry rule territory.

BC

How so? The Terry Rule permits political views alongside COVID - it's not a rule for policing any and all non-COVID-related posts. (At worst, we need an "OT" suffix for this thread.)

However, if even food opinions are considered partisan political views these days, then call me Arlen Specter or Jim Justice, because I'll disavow my party loyalty and say that having spent four years in New Haven, IMHO New Haven pizza is really, really overrated. (Though the mashed potato pizza at Bar is heavenly, it is not generally what people refer to by "New Haven pizza.")

[2006alum]

Two words about Pizza: New Haven

Also, Montreal is very underrated vis a vis Bagels

Oh, and we have strayed far into Terry rule territory.

BC

How so? The Terry Rule permits political views alongside COVID - it's not a rule for policing any and all non-COVID-related posts. (At worst, we need an "OT" suffix for this thread.)

However, if even food opinions are considered partisan political views these days, then call me Arlen Specter or Jim Justice, because I'll disavow my party loyalty and say that having spent four years in New Haven, IMHO New Haven pizza is really, really overrated. (Though the mashed potato pizza at Bar is heavenly, it is not generally what people refer to by "New Haven pizza.")

[82 Card]

 I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning. . . .
Turned around and walked out.

Good move, they're not real bagels. Come down to Izzy's sometime.

Agreed, they're not real bagels.  House of Bagels were much better.

As far as I can tell, House of Bagels is still operating. Having lived near both, I think the one on Geary in San Francisco is better than the one in Walnut Creek. I haven't been to either one since a change in ownership a while ago. It's possible that they are not what they are used to be.

Noah's is not nearly as good. Not sure what they do to suck the taste out. Even the Kirkland bagels have gotten better since they severed the relationship with Einstein Noah.

[82 Card]

 I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning. . . .
Turned around and walked out.

Good move, they're not real bagels. Come down to Izzy's sometime.

Agreed, they're not real bagels.  House of Bagels were much better.

As far as I can tell, House of Bagels is still operating. Having lived near both, I think the one on Geary in San Francisco is better than the one in Walnut Creek. I haven't been to either one since a change in ownership a while ago. It's possible that they are not what they are used to be.

Noah's is not nearly as good. Not sure what they do to suck the taste out. Even the Kirkland bagels have gotten better since they severed the relationship with Einstein Noah.

[teejers1]

Doesn't surprise me that cases are increasing.  I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning.  They have a posted limit of six customers, six feet apart.  There were 19 customers in the store, lots of askew masks, no N95s (not that there should have been).  

Turned around and walked out.

Anywhere college kids are congregating, especially at big state schools, I expect to see the number of cases increase.  Again, the question is: does that increase jeopardize medical care for those needing hospitalization.

Apart from that, I agree that there is "Distance Fatigue."  At SFO and in Chicago, the security lines were an unfunny joke.  No one was 6-feet apart from people in front/behind them in line (not to mention that when line serpentined, there was no way to be 6 feet apart from those on your sides).  At least everyone was in masks.  And at Costco and other stores, they are no longer limiting number of people in the stores; instead relying on people to distance inside the stores.  Practically speaking, that is tough to do (but pushing around those carts helps some on that front).  If there is an alarming spike in cases as the weather gets colder, I hope Biden and his team can push the right buttons.  It will be very hard for citizens with Covid fatigue to be asked to lock down more.  They're already getting lax on the distance front (even if I think mask-wearing is still very good in business establishments).

BTW, flights to and from SFO to Midway were full on Southwest, with the middle seat empty.  I was thankful for that.  (A buddy who flew United from O-Hare to SFO said his plane was entirely packed!).  But with N-95 mask on plane and masks pretty much whenever we went out (except while on the golf course), feeling pretty good on safety front.

P.S. I like Round Table pizza; but Amici's has moved high up the family list (and Amici wings are WAY underrated).

[teejers1]

Doesn't surprise me that cases are increasing.  I walked into a Noah's bagels yesterday morning.  They have a posted limit of six customers, six feet apart.  There were 19 customers in the store, lots of askew masks, no N95s (not that there should have been).  

Turned around and walked out.

Anywhere college kids are congregating, especially at big state schools, I expect to see the number of cases increase.  Again, the question is: does that increase jeopardize medical care for those needing hospitalization.

Apart from that, I agree that there is "Distance Fatigue."  At SFO and in Chicago, the security lines were an unfunny joke.  No one was 6-feet apart from people in front/behind them in line (not to mention that when line serpentined, there was no way to be 6 feet apart from those on your sides).  At least everyone was in masks.  And at Costco and other stores, they are no longer limiting number of people in the stores; instead relying on people to distance inside the stores.  Practically speaking, that is tough to do (but pushing around those carts helps some on that front).  If there is an alarming spike in cases as the weather gets colder, I hope Biden and his team can push the right buttons.  It will be very hard for citizens with Covid fatigue to be asked to lock down more.  They're already getting lax on the distance front (even if I think mask-wearing is still very good in business establishments).

BTW, flights to and from SFO to Midway were full on Southwest, with the middle seat empty.  I was thankful for that.  (A buddy who flew United from O-Hare to SFO said his plane was entirely packed!).  But with N-95 mask on plane and masks pretty much whenever we went out (except while on the golf course), feeling pretty good on safety front.

P.S. I like Round Table pizza; but Amici's has moved high up the family list (and Amici wings are WAY underrated).

[Mick]

P.S.  I like Round Table pizza; but Amici's has moved high up the family list (and Amici wings are WAY underrated).

I used to like Round Table, but about a year ago, they made a change in their crust.  Tastes really cheap now, basically killed the flavor.  Tastes like one of those $10 Domino's/Caesar's etc., but costs $38.  I walked by my local RTP, and a guy was standing out front behind the ubiquitous outdoor counter, and he looked puzzled.  He said to the clerk, "$22?  But I wanted a small pizza."  Clerk says "Yup."

I'll pass on RTP until they bring back the old crust.

[Mick]

P.S.  I like Round Table pizza; but Amici's has moved high up the family list (and Amici wings are WAY underrated).

I used to like Round Table, but about a year ago, they made a change in their crust.  Tastes really cheap now, basically killed the flavor.  Tastes like one of those $10 Domino's/Caesar's etc., but costs $38.  I walked by my local RTP, and a guy was standing out front behind the ubiquitous outdoor counter, and he looked puzzled.  He said to the clerk, "$22?  But I wanted a small pizza."  Clerk says "Yup."

I'll pass on RTP until they bring back the old crust.

[murky]

P.S.  I like Round Table pizza; but Amici's has moved high up the family list (and Amici wings are WAY underrated).

I used to like Round Table, but about a year ago, they made a change in their crust.  Tastes really cheap now, basically killed the flavor.  Tastes like one of those $10 Domino's/Caesar's etc., but costs $38.  I walked by my local RTP, and a guy was standing out front behind the ubiquitous outdoor counter, and he looked puzzled.  He said to the clerk, "$22?  But I wanted a small pizza."  Clerk says "Yup."

I'll pass on RTP until they bring back the old crust.

I think Round Table in the Bay Area must be different than here near Portland.  It's pretty bad top to bottom here.

[murky]

P.S.  I like Round Table pizza; but Amici's has moved high up the family list (and Amici wings are WAY underrated).

I used to like Round Table, but about a year ago, they made a change in their crust.  Tastes really cheap now, basically killed the flavor.  Tastes like one of those $10 Domino's/Caesar's etc., but costs $38.  I walked by my local RTP, and a guy was standing out front behind the ubiquitous outdoor counter, and he looked puzzled.  He said to the clerk, "$22?  But I wanted a small pizza."  Clerk says "Yup."

I'll pass on RTP until they bring back the old crust.

I think Round Table in the Bay Area must be different than here near Portland.  It's pretty bad top to bottom here.

[OutsiderFan]

France reported 32,000+ cases today. This is 4x what they reported at peak in March.  

To put it in perspective, this would be the equivalent of the United States recording over 152,000 cases in one day. It does seem we are headed to a 100,000+ new reported infection day in the next couple weeks. Should line up nicely with Election Day.

Italy just reported over 10,000 for the second day in a row. At its height in March, Italy didn't even have 7,000 cases per day reported and was overwhelmed. If we get on the Italian trajectory, we'll be just over 100,000 cases per day.

Can you say PANDEMIC?

Does the fact we have had experience dealing with this virus for months mean we'll be able to live with it better than in the initial surge?  Or will the sheer numbers just overwhelm us?  It seem fewer deaths are occurring from infections, but we still don't have much insight into long-term health consequences, to say nothing of the implications of over-topped hospital and medical care capacity.

I'm going to guess when the numbers start getting to 100,000 cases today and more stores like this start appearing again, we'll see people start to take the virus seriously and start staying away from others.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1317493874860937216[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

France reported 32,000+ cases today. This is 4x what they reported at peak in March.  

To put it in perspective, this would be the equivalent of the United States recording over 152,000 cases in one day. It does seem we are headed to a 100,000+ new reported infection day in the next couple weeks. Should line up nicely with Election Day.

Italy just reported over 10,000 for the second day in a row. At its height in March, Italy didn't even have 7,000 cases per day reported and was overwhelmed. If we get on the Italian trajectory, we'll be just over 100,000 cases per day.

Can you say PANDEMIC?

Does the fact we have had experience dealing with this virus for months mean we'll be able to live with it better than in the initial surge?  Or will the sheer numbers just overwhelm us?  It seem fewer deaths are occurring from infections, but we still don't have much insight into long-term health consequences, to say nothing of the implications of over-topped hospital and medical care capacity.

I'm going to guess when the numbers start getting to 100,000 cases today and more stores like this start appearing again, we'll see people start to take the virus seriously and start staying away from others.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1317493874860937216[/tweet]

[M T]

It does seem we are headed to a 100,000+ new reported infection day in the next couple weeks. Should line up nicely with Election Day.

Never "nicely".  Maybe "closely".

Attendance at American football has no effect on the numbers in France or Italy.

Maybe a human condition that allows one to get used to any ongoing tragic circumstance could be considered as a common cause, but I'm not asserting that.

What changed a few weeks back in Europe?  Has the weather changed that much?  Has school started?   Youth or adult sports?  Spectator attendance at sporting, political, cultural, etc. events?

[M T]

It does seem we are headed to a 100,000+ new reported infection day in the next couple weeks. Should line up nicely with Election Day.

Never "nicely".  Maybe "closely".

Attendance at American football has no effect on the numbers in France or Italy.

Maybe a human condition that allows one to get used to any ongoing tragic circumstance could be considered as a common cause, but I'm not asserting that.

What changed a few weeks back in Europe?  Has the weather changed that much?  Has school started?   Youth or adult sports?  Spectator attendance at sporting, political, cultural, etc. events?