[M T]

Positives on the rapid response tests will be confirmed with a PCR test.

The antigen test claims 100% accuracy if it shows a positive result.  The only reason for the PCR test would be to make sure health insurance will cover it.
It is the negative tests that need to be confirmed! (As I've said, the only specific numbers I've found indicate 1 in 8 true cases will be judged as a (false) negative.)

I also question the taking of the sample.  At least for the sentinel testing at Auburn using the antigen test, the students will take their sample (nasal swab, for theirs) themselves and submit it for testing.  There are several pitfalls to that:
  1.  How does the technique of taking the sample impact the detection of the virus?  (I suspect this is the primary reason for false negatives.  While using the nasal swab or saliva sample is less technical than the nasopharangyeal swab, I don't know how careful one must be.)
  2.  How does the handling and delivery of the sample impact the detection of the virus? (If it sits in someone's car for 4 or 12 hours or 2 days, are the results as accurate?)
  3.  How does one validate that the subject actually tried to take a proper sample? ("We play our rivalry game tomorrow and there will be plenty of pro-scouts on hand.  I can't afford to get a positive result."  This is a lot easier to fake than a urine test.)

If the teams use a trained nurse to take all the samples, that would be a good sign.  (But college teams have had staff break the rules.)  Since the sample is taken from the nose and there is no particular privacy issue about faces, a video recording of the team members getting tested would probably remove any further doubt about someone not being sampled.

[M T]

Positives on the rapid response tests will be confirmed with a PCR test.

The antigen test claims 100% accuracy if it shows a positive result.  The only reason for the PCR test would be to make sure health insurance will cover it.
It is the negative tests that need to be confirmed! (As I've said, the only specific numbers I've found indicate 1 in 8 true cases will be judged as a (false) negative.)

I also question the taking of the sample.  At least for the sentinel testing at Auburn using the antigen test, the students will take their sample (nasal swab, for theirs) themselves and submit it for testing.  There are several pitfalls to that:
  1.  How does the technique of taking the sample impact the detection of the virus?  (I suspect this is the primary reason for false negatives.  While using the nasal swab or saliva sample is less technical than the nasopharangyeal swab, I don't know how careful one must be.)
  2.  How does the handling and delivery of the sample impact the detection of the virus? (If it sits in someone's car for 4 or 12 hours or 2 days, are the results as accurate?)
  3.  How does one validate that the subject actually tried to take a proper sample? ("We play our rivalry game tomorrow and there will be plenty of pro-scouts on hand.  I can't afford to get a positive result."  This is a lot easier to fake than a urine test.)

If the teams use a trained nurse to take all the samples, that would be a good sign.  (But college teams have had staff break the rules.)  Since the sample is taken from the nose and there is no particular privacy issue about faces, a video recording of the team members getting tested would probably remove any further doubt about someone not being sampled.

[BostonCard]

Positives on the rapid response tests will be confirmed with a PCR test.

The antigen test claims 100% accuracy if it shows a positive result.  The only reason for the PCR test would be to make sure health insurance will cover it.

It is the negative tests that need to be confirmed! (As I've said, the only specific numbers I've found indicate 1 in 8 true cases will be judged as a (false) negative.)



I also question the taking of the sample.  At least for the sentinel testing at Auburn using the antigen test, the students will take their sample (nasal swab, for theirs) themselves and submit it for testing.  There are several pitfalls to that:

  1.  How does the technique of taking the sample impact the detection of the virus?  (I suspect this is the primary reason for false negatives.  While using the nasal swab or saliva sample is less technical than the nasopharangyeal swab, I don't know how careful one must be.)

  2.  How does the handling and delivery of the sample impact the detection of the virus? (If it sits in someone's car for 4 or 12 hours or 2 days, are the results as accurate?)

  3.  How does one validate that the subject actually tried to take a proper sample? ("We play our rivalry game tomorrow and there will be plenty of pro-scouts on hand.  I can't afford to get a positive result."  This is a lot easier to fake than a urine test.)



If the teams use a trained nurse to take all the samples, that would be a good sign.  (But college teams have had staff break the rules.)  Since the sample is taken from the nose and there is no particular privacy issue about faces, a video recording of the team members getting tested would probably remove any further doubt about someone not being sampled.

The 100% accuracy refers to the sample placed into the analyzer, but makes no allowance for the possibility of a sample mix-up or contamination prior to analysis.

BC

[BostonCard]

Positives on the rapid response tests will be confirmed with a PCR test.

The antigen test claims 100% accuracy if it shows a positive result.  The only reason for the PCR test would be to make sure health insurance will cover it.

It is the negative tests that need to be confirmed! (As I've said, the only specific numbers I've found indicate 1 in 8 true cases will be judged as a (false) negative.)



I also question the taking of the sample.  At least for the sentinel testing at Auburn using the antigen test, the students will take their sample (nasal swab, for theirs) themselves and submit it for testing.  There are several pitfalls to that:

  1.  How does the technique of taking the sample impact the detection of the virus?  (I suspect this is the primary reason for false negatives.  While using the nasal swab or saliva sample is less technical than the nasopharangyeal swab, I don't know how careful one must be.)

  2.  How does the handling and delivery of the sample impact the detection of the virus? (If it sits in someone's car for 4 or 12 hours or 2 days, are the results as accurate?)

  3.  How does one validate that the subject actually tried to take a proper sample? ("We play our rivalry game tomorrow and there will be plenty of pro-scouts on hand.  I can't afford to get a positive result."  This is a lot easier to fake than a urine test.)



If the teams use a trained nurse to take all the samples, that would be a good sign.  (But college teams have had staff break the rules.)  Since the sample is taken from the nose and there is no particular privacy issue about faces, a video recording of the team members getting tested would probably remove any further doubt about someone not being sampled.

The 100% accuracy refers to the sample placed into the analyzer, but makes no allowance for the possibility of a sample mix-up or contamination prior to analysis.

BC

[dabigv13]

The accuracy is certainly not 100% for positive tests. You have the Ohio governor experience. In my personal experience I've seen a positive antigen tests with multiple negative PCRs to follow. Not sample mixups. Not sure what happened.

[dabigv13]

The accuracy is certainly not 100% for positive tests. You have the Ohio governor experience. In my personal experience I've seen a positive antigen tests with multiple negative PCRs to follow. Not sample mixups. Not sure what happened.

[CardinalSagehen]

Here’s some more info on the Quidel test from the experience at Arizona.  

The Quidel product held up.

The tests were 96 percent to 98 percent accurate in sensitivity (finding the antigens) and 100 percent accurate in specificity (finding the right antigens).

On both counts, Harris said, the numbers matched the results from PCR testing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercury...eturn/amp/

[CardinalSagehen]

Here’s some more info on the Quidel test from the experience at Arizona.  

The Quidel product held up.

The tests were 96 percent to 98 percent accurate in sensitivity (finding the antigens) and 100 percent accurate in specificity (finding the right antigens).

On both counts, Harris said, the numbers matched the results from PCR testing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercury...eturn/amp/

[BostonCard]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-ho...d=73062256

The administration offered to procure testing for the Big Ten so that it could resume football.

BC

[BostonCard]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-ho...d=73062256

The administration offered to procure testing for the Big Ten so that it could resume football.

BC

[JustAnotherFan]

Feels like we need a new thread now that the title of this one has been proven demonstrably false. 

Incidentally, the power of jinxes! Dow to 10,000! 5m US Covid deaths! C.al wins the CFP. U$C to US News #1 University!

Nah, it's still accurate for Stanford football. Although I admit I underestimated the power of greed and the disregard for player safety and public health.

[JustAnotherFan]

Feels like we need a new thread now that the title of this one has been proven demonstrably false. 

Incidentally, the power of jinxes! Dow to 10,000! 5m US Covid deaths! C.al wins the CFP. U$C to US News #1 University!

Nah, it's still accurate for Stanford football. Although I admit I underestimated the power of greed and the disregard for player safety and public health.

[oregontim]

Interesting situation these days, right? With college football on television, empty stands or not; and the Big Ten making us the last of the power five conferences to hold out; I'm guessing there are conversations going on right now, Pac 12 leadership, about whether to give in and join the others. I'm not going to be surprised if we get an announcement in a few days.

[oregontim]

Interesting situation these days, right? With college football on television, empty stands or not; and the Big Ten making us the last of the power five conferences to hold out; I'm guessing there are conversations going on right now, Pac 12 leadership, about whether to give in and join the others. I'm not going to be surprised if we get an announcement in a few days.

[magnus]

Interesting situation these days, right? With college football on television, empty stands or not; and the Big Ten making us the last of the power five conferences to hold out; I'm guessing there are conversations going on right now, Pac 12 leadership, about whether to give in and join the others. I'm not going to be surprised if we get an announcement in a few days.

I thought Pac 12 football was on now that Oregon and California signed off on allowing play.  Or are there still some hurdles?

[magnus]

Interesting situation these days, right? With college football on television, empty stands or not; and the Big Ten making us the last of the power five conferences to hold out; I'm guessing there are conversations going on right now, Pac 12 leadership, about whether to give in and join the others. I'm not going to be surprised if we get an announcement in a few days.

I thought Pac 12 football was on now that Oregon and California signed off on allowing play.  Or are there still some hurdles?

[Mick]

So yes, Trump is first in the blame line (even before China - which is a bad actor on the world stage, so get used to it) and completely failed when it comes to setting the tone and getting the citizenry's "head right" about the gravity of the situation.  (And I think beyond tone, the feds could have helped ensure the $$ needed for decent test and trace at local levels).  But test and trace is at bottom a local matter, and that, too, has been an utter fail.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/202...apons-inf/

Genuinely wonder how the virus came to be.

[Mick]

So yes, Trump is first in the blame line (even before China - which is a bad actor on the world stage, so get used to it) and completely failed when it comes to setting the tone and getting the citizenry's "head right" about the gravity of the situation.  (And I think beyond tone, the feds could have helped ensure the $$ needed for decent test and trace at local levels).  But test and trace is at bottom a local matter, and that, too, has been an utter fail.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/202...apons-inf/

Genuinely wonder how the virus came to be.

[chrisk]

Interesting situation these days, right? With college football on television, empty stands or not; and the Big Ten making us the last of the power five conferences to hold out; I'm guessing there are conversations going on right now, Pac 12 leadership, about whether to give in and join the others. I'm not going to be surprised if we get an announcement in a few days.

I thought Pac 12 football was on now that Oregon and California signed off on allowing play.  Or are there still some hurdles?

As noted on the other board, the Pac-12 announced it will make its decision on 9/24. Stanford is still negotiating with Santa Clara County.

Meanwhile, of the 24 FBS games scheduled for Saturday, 5 have been canceled.

[chrisk]

Interesting situation these days, right? With college football on television, empty stands or not; and the Big Ten making us the last of the power five conferences to hold out; I'm guessing there are conversations going on right now, Pac 12 leadership, about whether to give in and join the others. I'm not going to be surprised if we get an announcement in a few days.

I thought Pac 12 football was on now that Oregon and California signed off on allowing play.  Or are there still some hurdles?

As noted on the other board, the Pac-12 announced it will make its decision on 9/24. Stanford is still negotiating with Santa Clara County.

Meanwhile, of the 24 FBS games scheduled for Saturday, 5 have been canceled.

[Farm93]

Meanwhile, of the 24 FBS games scheduled for Saturday, 5 have been canceled.

I caught a bit of a two of those 24 games. 

I suspected the Tulsa v Oklahoma State game would be loaded with mask-less fans even if the Tulsa MAGA has been labelled as a superspreader event likely linked to the death of Herman Cain.   And that crowd didn't disappoint.     I guess the school tried to space out fans, but it was pretty clear that many were clustered in the lower few rows of each section.

So, I thought that a UCF vs GT game might be better with something closer to what has been the norm with MLB and the NFL.   After all GA Tech is in Atlanta, a team with pro sports.   The mayor and her family members got COVID and COVID rates remain high in the region.   I paused during one frame of the audience.   In that crowd shot 19 members faces were visible.   14 didn't have masks or were wearing masks but not covering their face.  Only 5 were wearing AND using their masks.    I trust 5 of 19 does not meet the standards for universal masking.

Sure wish the Fed, State and local governments, NCAA or the conferences would do a bit more here to limit crowds or require masks, but I know it won't happen.   

I can concede the conferences will keep playing right through to the CFP, but now suspect the USA's COVID19 healthcare costs, hospitalization and fatality rates in December and January will ultimately reflect the costs of our national prioritization of sports and sports revenue.

[Farm93]

Meanwhile, of the 24 FBS games scheduled for Saturday, 5 have been canceled.

I caught a bit of a two of those 24 games. 

I suspected the Tulsa v Oklahoma State game would be loaded with mask-less fans even if the Tulsa MAGA has been labelled as a superspreader event likely linked to the death of Herman Cain.   And that crowd didn't disappoint.     I guess the school tried to space out fans, but it was pretty clear that many were clustered in the lower few rows of each section.

So, I thought that a UCF vs GT game might be better with something closer to what has been the norm with MLB and the NFL.   After all GA Tech is in Atlanta, a team with pro sports.   The mayor and her family members got COVID and COVID rates remain high in the region.   I paused during one frame of the audience.   In that crowd shot 19 members faces were visible.   14 didn't have masks or were wearing masks but not covering their face.  Only 5 were wearing AND using their masks.    I trust 5 of 19 does not meet the standards for universal masking.

Sure wish the Fed, State and local governments, NCAA or the conferences would do a bit more here to limit crowds or require masks, but I know it won't happen.   

I can concede the conferences will keep playing right through to the CFP, but now suspect the USA's COVID19 healthcare costs, hospitalization and fatality rates in December and January will ultimately reflect the costs of our national prioritization of sports and sports revenue.

[OutsiderFan]

This is a great point 93 makes.

We hear all this talk about college sports must be played because it generates revenues schools need. But why the hell are there fans at games? If our push to play sports directly or indirectly leads to more medical costs and lost economic productivity with increased and/or prolonged virus spread, how can we make credible arguments that playing sports is a smart financial decision, and for whom?

As a rule, I’m so completely tired of privatized gains and socialized losses in this rigged economic reality we live in. Right now the CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Bond Securities) industry is lobbying Congress and the White House for a bailout, so lenders can avoid losses because if they lose, they wont’t be able to pay off their debt, and that creditor won’t be able to pay off their, and the whole house of financial cards will collapse. The lobbyists will claim its to save jobs, but if that were the case, why wouldn’t they be pushing for direct payments to people so they can stay in their houses and put food on the table?

I can watch MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL games without fans in stands, knowing those sports are being responsible, but I just can’t watch college football being played when even schools like GT are being reckless, putting the whole country at risk for their own selfish interests.

[OutsiderFan]

This is a great point 93 makes.

We hear all this talk about college sports must be played because it generates revenues schools need. But why the hell are there fans at games? If our push to play sports directly or indirectly leads to more medical costs and lost economic productivity with increased and/or prolonged virus spread, how can we make credible arguments that playing sports is a smart financial decision, and for whom?

As a rule, I’m so completely tired of privatized gains and socialized losses in this rigged economic reality we live in. Right now the CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Bond Securities) industry is lobbying Congress and the White House for a bailout, so lenders can avoid losses because if they lose, they wont’t be able to pay off their debt, and that creditor won’t be able to pay off their, and the whole house of financial cards will collapse. The lobbyists will claim its to save jobs, but if that were the case, why wouldn’t they be pushing for direct payments to people so they can stay in their houses and put food on the table?

I can watch MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL games without fans in stands, knowing those sports are being responsible, but I just can’t watch college football being played when even schools like GT are being reckless, putting the whole country at risk for their own selfish interests.

[82lsju]

Posting this article mostly for Teejers benefit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/us/co...74f24220a2

The TL;DR version is there are lots of COVID-19 cases on campus, but few hospitalizations.  Most of the deaths have happened in staff members; I don’t think the article notes any student deaths in the recent outbreaks.

BC

also for Teejers,

one school district near San Diego and their reopening planning and implementation

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/sc...ening.html

Parents and teachers said the district did a good job of responding to the pandemic when it first hit American shores. In March, the district created playlists with curriculum and content for every grade. Principals frequently made goofy videos to send to students to try and show there could be lightness in a very heavy moment. (One who loves Star Wars hosted: “May the 4th be with you.”) Teachers at Avocado Elementary sent every student a postcard. Teachers all had Zoom office hours, as well as regular online classes.

But equally important, experts say, is the fact that Cajon Valley had laid the ground work for challenges the pandemic presented well before the coronavirus arrived.

For seven years, the district has provided every child a laptop and access to a curriculum that blends technology into day-to-day teaching. Teachers have received extensive training for high-tech, “blended” classrooms, showcased in YouTube videos as far back as 2014.

[82lsju]

Posting this article mostly for Teejers benefit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/us/co...74f24220a2

The TL;DR version is there are lots of COVID-19 cases on campus, but few hospitalizations.  Most of the deaths have happened in staff members; I don’t think the article notes any student deaths in the recent outbreaks.

BC

also for Teejers,

one school district near San Diego and their reopening planning and implementation

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/sc...ening.html

Parents and teachers said the district did a good job of responding to the pandemic when it first hit American shores. In March, the district created playlists with curriculum and content for every grade. Principals frequently made goofy videos to send to students to try and show there could be lightness in a very heavy moment. (One who loves Star Wars hosted: “May the 4th be with you.”) Teachers at Avocado Elementary sent every student a postcard. Teachers all had Zoom office hours, as well as regular online classes.

But equally important, experts say, is the fact that Cajon Valley had laid the ground work for challenges the pandemic presented well before the coronavirus arrived.

For seven years, the district has provided every child a laptop and access to a curriculum that blends technology into day-to-day teaching. Teachers have received extensive training for high-tech, “blended” classrooms, showcased in YouTube videos as far back as 2014.

[magnus]

SEC is using a contract tracing device that the NFL uses to determine who to contract trace if a positive case.  The device also warns if you are within 6ft of (I assume) another user.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...distancing

I assume this is used on the field (and maybe 24/7?)

[magnus]

SEC is using a contract tracing device that the NFL uses to determine who to contract trace if a positive case.  The device also warns if you are within 6ft of (I assume) another user.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...distancing

I assume this is used on the field (and maybe 24/7?)

[JustAnotherFan]

Shared from BostonCard on another thread: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sport...74f24220a2

Looks like he did, in fact, die of a complication of COVID-19.

BC

So how many players need to die before they cancel the season?

[JustAnotherFan]

Shared from BostonCard on another thread: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sport...74f24220a2

Looks like he did, in fact, die of a complication of COVID-19.

BC

So how many players need to die before they cancel the season?

[magnus]

Shared from BostonCard on another thread: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sport...74f24220a2

Looks like he did, in fact, die of a complication of COVID-19.

BC

So how many players need to die before they cancel the season?

Players have died from heat exhaustion (if I'm remembering correctly) and the beat went on.  I don't think anything will change unless multiple D1 (and maybe Power 5) players die from Covid complications.  And no, I'm not hoping for that to happen.

[magnus]

Shared from BostonCard on another thread: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sport...74f24220a2

Looks like he did, in fact, die of a complication of COVID-19.

BC

So how many players need to die before they cancel the season?

Players have died from heat exhaustion (if I'm remembering correctly) and the beat went on.  I don't think anything will change unless multiple D1 (and maybe Power 5) players die from Covid complications.  And no, I'm not hoping for that to happen.

[fullmetal]

Or coaches/staff.

[fullmetal]

Or coaches/staff.

[BostonCard]

Yes, players occcasionally die playing sports, including heat exhaustion, previously unknown heart conditions.  Years ago, a UW player (Curtis Washington) died after being paralyzed trying to make a tackle against Stanford.  And of course there is significant concern about traumatic encephalopathy long-term.

In the other thread, I highlighted the player who died just to be a reminder that while the vast majority of young, otherwise healthy people survive, that number is not zero and we should not assume it is zero.

BC

[BostonCard]

Yes, players occcasionally die playing sports, including heat exhaustion, previously unknown heart conditions.  Years ago, a UW player (Curtis Washington) died after being paralyzed trying to make a tackle against Stanford.  And of course there is significant concern about traumatic encephalopathy long-term.

In the other thread, I highlighted the player who died just to be a reminder that while the vast majority of young, otherwise healthy people survive, that number is not zero and we should not assume it is zero.

BC

[Mick]

Players have died from heat exhaustion (if I'm remembering correctly) and the beat went on.  I don't think anything will change unless multiple D1 (and maybe Power 5) players die from Covid complications.  And no, I'm not hoping for that to happen.

There were 243 deaths during high school and college football practices between 1990 and 2010.  About 1/3 were from injuries, 2/3 from heart conditions, heat and other medical conditions.  So about a dozen per year from non-COVID related activities.  And they kept playing.

In 1905, there were 19 football fatalities nationwide and Pres. Roosevelt threatened to shut down the game.  Rules changes were instituted, specifically eliminating mass formations like the flying wedge, to reduce the danger.  Stanford, Cal and Santa Clara switched from football to rugby from 1906 to 1917.  Their expertise in rugby helped populate the American gold-medal-winning teams in 1920 and 1924, the only two years rugby was played in the Olympics until 7's were introduced in 2016.

[Mick]

Players have died from heat exhaustion (if I'm remembering correctly) and the beat went on.  I don't think anything will change unless multiple D1 (and maybe Power 5) players die from Covid complications.  And no, I'm not hoping for that to happen.

There were 243 deaths during high school and college football practices between 1990 and 2010.  About 1/3 were from injuries, 2/3 from heart conditions, heat and other medical conditions.  So about a dozen per year from non-COVID related activities.  And they kept playing.

In 1905, there were 19 football fatalities nationwide and Pres. Roosevelt threatened to shut down the game.  Rules changes were instituted, specifically eliminating mass formations like the flying wedge, to reduce the danger.  Stanford, Cal and Santa Clara switched from football to rugby from 1906 to 1917.  Their expertise in rugby helped populate the American gold-medal-winning teams in 1920 and 1924, the only two years rugby was played in the Olympics until 7's were introduced in 2016.

[teejers1]

Shared from BostonCard on another thread: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sport...74f24220a2

Looks like he did, in fact, die of a complication of COVID-19.

BC

So how many players need to die before they cancel the season?

Yeah, because the guy obviously got Covid and died from it due to football.  
C'mon, now (though I admit, that certainly is what the article would like you to believe).

[teejers1]

Shared from BostonCard on another thread: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/sport...74f24220a2

Looks like he did, in fact, die of a complication of COVID-19.

BC

So how many players need to die before they cancel the season?

Yeah, because the guy obviously got Covid and died from it due to football.  
C'mon, now (though I admit, that certainly is what the article would like you to believe).