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07-01-2020, 10:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2020, 10:09 PM by
BostonCard.)
A couple quick comments.
mRNA vaccines were first out of the gate because they could be developed knowing just the viral sequence; the virus itself did not need to be isolated, and the vaccine technology was designed to be antigen agnostic. Basically, the technology was built from the ground up to, in theory, take any virus, plug in its sequence, and test.
Other technologies, such as getting adenovirus to express the coronavirus spike, or isolating the spike itself, or a weakened or killed version of COVID-19 (traditional Vaccine technology) were all going to take longer. Whether they will work better (or if mRNA technology will work at all is an open question).
I don’t claim to know which technology has the highest PTS (probability of technical success), or which will be developed fastest. I will say that I am glad there are multiple shots on goal, and that they use different technologies. Hoping at least one works (the FDA’s bar for efficacy approval is a 50% efficacy, which is on par with your average flu vaccine).
BC
On the question of what constitutes immunogenicity, the focus on antibodies is mostly based on the bias that we elevate factors that can be measured easily. It is easy to test if one has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, measure their titers, and determine whether they are neutralizing antibodies. It is probable, but unproven, that neutralizing antibodies at high enough titers will be protective against COViD-19, but there is a lot we don’t know, and antibodies may not be protective, and lack of antibodies may not necessarily mean you are susceptible, because of the cellular (T cell) response. on the flip side, we don’t know yet that having memory T cells is protective either. To the extent that there is a take home from the paper, it’s that it highlights how much we don’t know about adaptive immunity against the virus. The biggest questions are how strong is the immunity, and how much does it wane over time. The first people to be infected only got the thing seven months ago, so there is a lot we don’t know.
BC