08-28-2019, 01:35 PM
<p>I see I am a significant outlier in the prediction game: I predict a low-scoring game similar to last year's against U$C, picking a Stanford win, 17-3.</p><p><br></p><p>To my understanding, Northwestern's strength last year was its defense, and now that their QB has left for the NFL (a late-round pick), I would expect their offense to do even worse. I'm generally skeptical of previously-highly-touted transfer QBs, and even more so during their first start, so even if Hunter Johnson is the most highly-touted Northwestern recruit ever (or even if 5th year senior TJ Green starts), I just can't imagine a quarterback making his first start, flying all the way across the country to play an away game against a Power-5 team scoring big points in his first game. I would expect their playbook will be limited, the quarterback will be on a short leash, and by the second half if not sooner, the offense should become predictable and one-dimensional, like USC's offense in last year's game.</p><p><br></p><p>Similar to the matchup against USC last year, I see Shaw eyeing a victory playing a very conservative game. Why quicken the tempo, why take chances if you believe your defense will get the stop. This could be a game where Shaw feels safe with a 10-3 lead.</p><p><br></p><p>Facing Northwestern's defense is both worrisome and exciting. The defense was Northwestern's strength last year and they return many defenders. Northwestern scored 21 points off 3 turnovers against Utah in the Holiday Bowl -- their defense alone scored more points than the Utah team. And lest we forget, 4 years ago Northwestern stunned that 2015 Stanford team and held them without a touchdown, winning 16-6. Stanford hasn't yet proven they can score a touchdown against Northwestern, and the 2015 team had Christian McCaffrey.</p><p><br></p><p>It's a tough defense, and I'm excited to get the first glimpses of what the Stanford offense is made of. Are the o-line's woes from 2018 over? Will we see a return of its upfront strength? Is Costello's arm legit or was he overly-reliant on dominant jump-ball receivers last year? We'll learn a lot playing against one of the most opportunistic defenses around, and this should be a good strength-on-strength matchup.</p><p><br></p><p>In terms of tests for Stanford's defense, we'll see if it's as good as we think it can be. Adebo and Eboh should cause misery for a first-time starter. Northwestern's running game strength is its 215 lb bruiser Bowser, but Stanford hopes that this year at last it has a powerful, deep front line. So playing a big, powerful running back should provide a first glimpse of whether Stanford's d-line, an expected strength, can halt a real power back, not fall back, and not wear down.</p><p><br></p><p>I believe Stanford's defense will be legit. If they can stymie Northwestern's offense, then Stanford can play it safe on offense, and the offense may not score more than 10 points against a very dangerous and opportunistic defense. Stanford, 17-3, with some of Stanford's points coming from the defense or ST.</p>

