[cctop]

A friend recently asked me about the chance we'll go to a bowl game before Christmas this season.

Surprisingly Stanford has never done that before.  The closest we got was the Aloha Bowl on Christmas Day in 1991.

This year the Vegas Bowl is on Dec. 15.  The 2019 Redbox Bowl comes up blank in a Google search -- no webpage, and no date set yet!  I'm going to assume it will be on Dec. 31 again.  The rest of the Pac-12 bowls are after Christmas.

Regarding our record, I"ve got a 90% confidence level that we'll end up between 8-4 and 6-6 this season considering the difficult out-of-conference schedule, the offensive line not appearing to have more healthy players than last year, and that I expect we'll struggle to find a new offensive identity.

With that in mind, here's the Pac-12 bowl lineup and my guess of the probability of each in 2019:

05%  Rose 
05%  Alamo
25%  Holiday
10%  Redbox, formerly Foster Farms -- they will do anything they can not to pick Stanford again
00%  Sun -- they will not want us two years in a row
30%  Vegas
20%  Cheez-It
10%  at-large bowl
05%  no bowl

My conclusion: Redbox and Sun are unlikely, and we're more likely to get dropped down to the Vegas than bumped up to the Holiday. so I'd say we have about a 1 in 3 chance of playing in a bowl game before Christmas this year.

[cctop]

A friend recently asked me about the chance we'll go to a bowl game before Christmas this season.

Surprisingly Stanford has never done that before.  The closest we got was the Aloha Bowl on Christmas Day in 1991.

This year the Vegas Bowl is on Dec. 15.  The 2019 Redbox Bowl comes up blank in a Google search -- no webpage, and no date set yet!  I'm going to assume it will be on Dec. 31 again.  The rest of the Pac-12 bowls are after Christmas.

Regarding our record, I"ve got a 90% confidence level that we'll end up between 8-4 and 6-6 this season considering the difficult out-of-conference schedule, the offensive line not appearing to have more healthy players than last year, and that I expect we'll struggle to find a new offensive identity.

With that in mind, here's the Pac-12 bowl lineup and my guess of the probability of each in 2019:

05%  Rose 
05%  Alamo
25%  Holiday
10%  Redbox, formerly Foster Farms -- they will do anything they can not to pick Stanford again
00%  Sun -- they will not want us two years in a row
30%  Vegas
20%  Cheez-It
10%  at-large bowl
05%  no bowl

My conclusion: Redbox and Sun are unlikely, and we're more likely to get dropped down to the Vegas than bumped up to the Holiday. so I'd say we have about a 1 in 3 chance of playing in a bowl game before Christmas this year.

[FarmBoy]

A friend recently asked me about the chance we'll go to a bowl game before Christmas this season.

Surprisingly Stanford has never done that before.  The closest we got was the Aloha Bowl on Christmas Day in 1991.

This year the Vegas Bowl is on Dec. 15.  The 2019 Redbox Bowl comes up blank in a Google search -- no webpage, and no date set yet!  I'm going to assume it will be on Dec. 31 again.  The rest of the Pac-12 bowls are after Christmas.

Regarding our record, I"ve got a 90% confidence level that we'll end up between 8-4 and 6-6 this season considering the difficult out-of-conference schedule, the offensive line not appearing to have more healthy players than last year, and that I expect we'll struggle to find a new offensive identity.

With that in mind, here's the Pac-12 bowl lineup and my guess of the probability of each in 2019:

05%  Rose 
05%  Alamo
25%  Holiday
10%  Redbox, formerly Foster Farms -- they will do anything they can not to pick Stanford again
00%  Sun -- they will not want us two years in a row
30%  Vegas
20%  Cheez-It
10%  at-large bowl
05%  no bowl

My conclusion: Redbox and Sun are unlikely, and we're more likely to get dropped down to the Vegas than bumped up to the Holiday. so I'd say we have about a 1 in 3 chance of playing in a bowl game before Christmas this year.

The Holiday bowl has never selected us, have they? I think they pick around us if there are options to do so, which there always seems to be.

[FarmBoy]

A friend recently asked me about the chance we'll go to a bowl game before Christmas this season.

Surprisingly Stanford has never done that before.  The closest we got was the Aloha Bowl on Christmas Day in 1991.

This year the Vegas Bowl is on Dec. 15.  The 2019 Redbox Bowl comes up blank in a Google search -- no webpage, and no date set yet!  I'm going to assume it will be on Dec. 31 again.  The rest of the Pac-12 bowls are after Christmas.

Regarding our record, I"ve got a 90% confidence level that we'll end up between 8-4 and 6-6 this season considering the difficult out-of-conference schedule, the offensive line not appearing to have more healthy players than last year, and that I expect we'll struggle to find a new offensive identity.

With that in mind, here's the Pac-12 bowl lineup and my guess of the probability of each in 2019:

05%  Rose 
05%  Alamo
25%  Holiday
10%  Redbox, formerly Foster Farms -- they will do anything they can not to pick Stanford again
00%  Sun -- they will not want us two years in a row
30%  Vegas
20%  Cheez-It
10%  at-large bowl
05%  no bowl

My conclusion: Redbox and Sun are unlikely, and we're more likely to get dropped down to the Vegas than bumped up to the Holiday. so I'd say we have about a 1 in 3 chance of playing in a bowl game before Christmas this year.

The Holiday bowl has never selected us, have they? I think they pick around us if there are options to do so, which there always seems to be.

[ADPinWDC]

At 9-3... with our schedule.  That might be enough for a Holiday bid. 
But, Pac12 might not have a Top Ten team by Dec., unless WASH racks up 10 wins, or OREG beats AUBN to open. 

OR... Cardinal wins the Pac12 at 12-1 and thumps NDAM in PA.

[ADPinWDC]

At 9-3... with our schedule.  That might be enough for a Holiday bid. 
But, Pac12 might not have a Top Ten team by Dec., unless WASH racks up 10 wins, or OREG beats AUBN to open. 

OR... Cardinal wins the Pac12 at 12-1 and thumps NDAM in PA.

[Snorlax94]

I saw this title and thought, that’s insane, how can anyone predict anything this early, and yet... I get drawn in.

I think the key thing to remember about this season is that we should have the best qb we’ve had since Luck, KJ potentially at peak of his collegiate career. And the wild card, as usual, is how thin the team is, so, the results could vary tremendously depending on the fortunes of injury.

But if I were to take a stab at things based on what’s on paper during the pre-season, I’m most afraid of Notre Dame and UCF (in Florida) this year. Nobody has beaten UCF at home for 2 straight seasons, and on paper, this could be a juggernaut of a Notre Dame team, a legitimate contender (unlike 2018 or 2013, where I felt like I knew their fate even if they had a great regular season record). Then, on paper, Oregon looks like such a monster in the conference.

But the weird thing is, with such out-of-conference giants, Stanford could be 8-4 or 7-5 but still be 7-2 or 8-1 in conference and in contention for a Rose Bowl or Alamo Bowl.


So, if the team works as hard as one hopes, and stays healthy, and has great leadership, this squad could still be one of the top teams in the conference. And if they can find a way to beat Oregon again, and can finally end the recent Wazoo streak, everything is possible.

[Snorlax94]

I saw this title and thought, that’s insane, how can anyone predict anything this early, and yet... I get drawn in.

I think the key thing to remember about this season is that we should have the best qb we’ve had since Luck, KJ potentially at peak of his collegiate career. And the wild card, as usual, is how thin the team is, so, the results could vary tremendously depending on the fortunes of injury.

But if I were to take a stab at things based on what’s on paper during the pre-season, I’m most afraid of Notre Dame and UCF (in Florida) this year. Nobody has beaten UCF at home for 2 straight seasons, and on paper, this could be a juggernaut of a Notre Dame team, a legitimate contender (unlike 2018 or 2013, where I felt like I knew their fate even if they had a great regular season record). Then, on paper, Oregon looks like such a monster in the conference.

But the weird thing is, with such out-of-conference giants, Stanford could be 8-4 or 7-5 but still be 7-2 or 8-1 in conference and in contention for a Rose Bowl or Alamo Bowl.


So, if the team works as hard as one hopes, and stays healthy, and has great leadership, this squad could still be one of the top teams in the conference. And if they can find a way to beat Oregon again, and can finally end the recent Wazoo streak, everything is possible.

[JohnR34231]

I saw this title and thought, that’s insane, how can anyone predict anything this early, and yet... I get drawn in.

I think the key thing to remember about this season is that we should have the best qb we’ve had since Luck, KJ potentially at peak of his collegiate career. And the wild card, as usual, is how thin the team is, so, the results could vary tremendously depending on the fortunes of injury.

But if I were to take a stab at things based on what’s on paper during the pre-season, I’m most afraid of Notre Dame and UCF (in Florida) this year. Nobody has beaten UCF at home for 2 straight seasons, and on paper, this could be a juggernaut of a Notre Dame team, a legitimate contender (unlike 2018 or 2013, where I felt like I knew their fate even if they had a great regular season record). Then, on paper, Oregon looks like such a monster in the conference.

But the weird thing is, with such out-of-conference giants, Stanford could be 8-4 or 7-5 but still be 7-2 or 8-1 in conference and in contention for a Rose Bowl or Alamo Bowl.


So, if the team works as hard as one hopes, and stays healthy, and has great leadership, this squad could still be one of the top teams in the conference. And if they can find a way to beat Oregon again, and can finally end the recent Wazoo streak, everything is possible.

Of course, UCF's home schedule for the last two years hasn't exactly been murderer's row.
Doesn't mean it won't be a very tough game for us, though.

[JohnR34231]

I saw this title and thought, that’s insane, how can anyone predict anything this early, and yet... I get drawn in.

I think the key thing to remember about this season is that we should have the best qb we’ve had since Luck, KJ potentially at peak of his collegiate career. And the wild card, as usual, is how thin the team is, so, the results could vary tremendously depending on the fortunes of injury.

But if I were to take a stab at things based on what’s on paper during the pre-season, I’m most afraid of Notre Dame and UCF (in Florida) this year. Nobody has beaten UCF at home for 2 straight seasons, and on paper, this could be a juggernaut of a Notre Dame team, a legitimate contender (unlike 2018 or 2013, where I felt like I knew their fate even if they had a great regular season record). Then, on paper, Oregon looks like such a monster in the conference.

But the weird thing is, with such out-of-conference giants, Stanford could be 8-4 or 7-5 but still be 7-2 or 8-1 in conference and in contention for a Rose Bowl or Alamo Bowl.


So, if the team works as hard as one hopes, and stays healthy, and has great leadership, this squad could still be one of the top teams in the conference. And if they can find a way to beat Oregon again, and can finally end the recent Wazoo streak, everything is possible.

Of course, UCF's home schedule for the last two years hasn't exactly been murderer's row.
Doesn't mean it won't be a very tough game for us, though.

[ColoradoTree]

Just saw the full schedule from ESPN was released 25 minutes ago, and here are some exact dates: https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-relea...ll-season/

December 21: Las Vegas
December 27: Cheez-It
December 31: Alamo, Sun (not on ESPN)
January 1: Rose

(Also not on ESPN: Holiday and Redbox. Don't see a Holiday Bowl date yet either, but it hasn't been played before Christmas since 1985, and the Redbox Bowl has never been played before Christmas.)

[ColoradoTree]

Just saw the full schedule from ESPN was released 25 minutes ago, and here are some exact dates: https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-relea...ll-season/

December 21: Las Vegas
December 27: Cheez-It
December 31: Alamo, Sun (not on ESPN)
January 1: Rose

(Also not on ESPN: Holiday and Redbox. Don't see a Holiday Bowl date yet either, but it hasn't been played before Christmas since 1985, and the Redbox Bowl has never been played before Christmas.)

[Vandelay]

If I may channel my inner Jim Mora here, can I just say

Bowl Game?!?

That 5% No Bowl Game should be a lot higher.  The schedule is brutal and I don't see this team being able to replace the talent that was lost to graduation and the NFL draft.  Looking at the schedule, I do not see six wins.  I don't even see five wins.

[Vandelay]

If I may channel my inner Jim Mora here, can I just say

Bowl Game?!?

That 5% No Bowl Game should be a lot higher.  The schedule is brutal and I don't see this team being able to replace the talent that was lost to graduation and the NFL draft.  Looking at the schedule, I do not see six wins.  I don't even see five wins.

[JohnR34231]

If I may channel my inner Jim Mora here, can I just say

Bowl Game?!?

That 5% No Bowl Game should be a lot higher.  The schedule is brutal and I don't see this team being able to replace the talent that was lost to graduation and the NFL draft.  Looking at the schedule, I do not see six wins.  I don't even see five wins.

Sure, you can say whatever you want.
This board has lost a couple of our old Negative Nellies, so perhaps we need some replacements.

[JohnR34231]

If I may channel my inner Jim Mora here, can I just say

Bowl Game?!?

That 5% No Bowl Game should be a lot higher.  The schedule is brutal and I don't see this team being able to replace the talent that was lost to graduation and the NFL draft.  Looking at the schedule, I do not see six wins.  I don't even see five wins.

Sure, you can say whatever you want.
This board has lost a couple of our old Negative Nellies, so perhaps we need some replacements.

[Phogge]

Eason hasn’t taken a snap in three years. Oregon looked beatable in their bowl. The Pirate will have a melt down at the worst time.

Rose Bowl Stanford 27 Michigan 24. Book your flight boys.

[Phogge]

Eason hasn’t taken a snap in three years. Oregon looked beatable in their bowl. The Pirate will have a melt down at the worst time.

Rose Bowl Stanford 27 Michigan 24. Book your flight boys.

[JohnR34231]

Eason hasn’t taken a snap in three years. Oregon looked beatable in their bowl. The Pirate will have a melt down at the worst time.

Rose Bowl Stanford 27 Michigan 24. Book your flight boys.

Who is posting under Phogge's handle?

[JohnR34231]

Eason hasn’t taken a snap in three years. Oregon looked beatable in their bowl. The Pirate will have a melt down at the worst time.

Rose Bowl Stanford 27 Michigan 24. Book your flight boys.

Who is posting under Phogge's handle?

[BostonCard]

I detect a hint of sarcasm there.

BC

---

If I may channel my inner Jim Mora here, can I just say

Bowl Game?!?

That 5% No Bowl Game should be a lot higher.  The schedule is brutal and I don't see this team being able to replace the talent that was lost to graduation and the NFL draft.  Looking at the schedule, I do not see six wins.  I don't even see five wins.

That is a very real possibility.  We could go 0-3 against our non-conference slate, and go 1-4 against the rest of the North, and 2-2 against the South.  That’s unlikely but it is within the realm of the possible.

If we get to six, it’s because we get a win against northwestern at home, beat both Cal and OSU in our PAC-12 north slate, and go 3-1 against the PAC-12 south.

My best case scenario sees us win 2/3 non-conference, go 3-2 against the PAC-12 North and sweep the PAC-12 south.  That gets us to 9 wins.

Anything more than that would take some teams stumble unexpectedly.

BC

[BostonCard]

I detect a hint of sarcasm there.

BC

---

If I may channel my inner Jim Mora here, can I just say

Bowl Game?!?

That 5% No Bowl Game should be a lot higher.  The schedule is brutal and I don't see this team being able to replace the talent that was lost to graduation and the NFL draft.  Looking at the schedule, I do not see six wins.  I don't even see five wins.

That is a very real possibility.  We could go 0-3 against our non-conference slate, and go 1-4 against the rest of the North, and 2-2 against the South.  That’s unlikely but it is within the realm of the possible.

If we get to six, it’s because we get a win against northwestern at home, beat both Cal and OSU in our PAC-12 north slate, and go 3-1 against the PAC-12 south.

My best case scenario sees us win 2/3 non-conference, go 3-2 against the PAC-12 North and sweep the PAC-12 south.  That gets us to 9 wins.

Anything more than that would take some teams stumble unexpectedly.

BC

[JohnR34231]

Just about anything is a possibility.
Let's say (perish the thought) Costello goes down in the first game and is out for the season.
Not sure just who we would beat then. Maybe OSU and Colorado.
Saying you can't see five wins is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things, though.

[JohnR34231]

Just about anything is a possibility.
Let's say (perish the thought) Costello goes down in the first game and is out for the season.
Not sure just who we would beat then. Maybe OSU and Colorado.
Saying you can't see five wins is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things, though.

[Phogge]

Still me. Why the hell not? The football conference has become what is now described as a mid-major (in basketball). Everyone has questions. Doubts about the ILB and safety positions. But the O line can’t be as bad as last year, the receivers have experience, Adebo is the best corner in D1, the outside rush should be potent, the D line finally has depth even though there is no star, the QB considered jumping to the NFL but stayed and the RB’s have potential including a freshman who can lug it and catch it and played in a great system in high school.

Screw Oregon.

[Phogge]

Still me. Why the hell not? The football conference has become what is now described as a mid-major (in basketball). Everyone has questions. Doubts about the ILB and safety positions. But the O line can’t be as bad as last year, the receivers have experience, Adebo is the best corner in D1, the outside rush should be potent, the D line finally has depth even though there is no star, the QB considered jumping to the NFL but stayed and the RB’s have potential including a freshman who can lug it and catch it and played in a great system in high school.

Screw Oregon.

[BostonCard]

Just about anything is a possibility.
Let's say (perish the thought) Costello goes down in the first game and is out for the season.
Not sure just who we would beat then. Maybe OSU and Colorado.
Saying you can't see five wins is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things, though.

If Mills is capable of playing, then we could actually wind up better than if Costello was our starter; if, on the other hand, Mills' knee is not up to the task, then we are probably done for.

Not being able to see five wins is pessimistic, but it isn't completely impossible.  Chances are, though, that some other teams will also have question marks and we will probably win a game or two that on paper we shouldn't.  My best guess is 7-5, (Northwestern, @OSU, Cal, @Colorado, Arizona and UCLA gets us to six and I'll say @USC to get to 7).  My upshot is 9-3; my downside take would be 4-8. 

I do like the new and improved TC.  Who bought him the new cardinal colored glasses?

BC

[BostonCard]

Just about anything is a possibility.
Let's say (perish the thought) Costello goes down in the first game and is out for the season.
Not sure just who we would beat then. Maybe OSU and Colorado.
Saying you can't see five wins is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things, though.

If Mills is capable of playing, then we could actually wind up better than if Costello was our starter; if, on the other hand, Mills' knee is not up to the task, then we are probably done for.

Not being able to see five wins is pessimistic, but it isn't completely impossible.  Chances are, though, that some other teams will also have question marks and we will probably win a game or two that on paper we shouldn't.  My best guess is 7-5, (Northwestern, @OSU, Cal, @Colorado, Arizona and UCLA gets us to six and I'll say @USC to get to 7).  My upshot is 9-3; my downside take would be 4-8. 

I do like the new and improved TC.  Who bought him the new cardinal colored glasses?

BC

[JohnR34231]

Just about anything is a possibility.
Let's say (perish the thought) Costello goes down in the first game and is out for the season.
Not sure just who we would beat then. Maybe OSU and Colorado.
Saying you can't see five wins is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things, though.

If Mills is capable of playing, then we could actually wind up better than if Costello was our starter; if, on the other hand, Mills' knee is not up to the task, then we are probably done for.

Not being able to see five wins is pessimistic, but it isn't completely impossible.  Chances are, though, that some other teams will also have question marks and we will probably win a game or two that on paper we shouldn't.  My best guess is 7-5, (Northwestern, @OSU, Cal, @Colorado, Arizona and UCLA gets us to six and I'll say @USC to get to 7).  My upshot is 9-3; my downside take would be 4-8. 

I do like the new and improved TC.  Who bought him the new cardinal colored glasses?

BC

If Mills's knee is OK I think the key word in your comment is wind up. He may eventually be better than Costello but won't be for a while. He just hasn't played enough.
As far as TC's 180 is concerned, somehow I think he's just having fun with us.

[JohnR34231]

Just about anything is a possibility.
Let's say (perish the thought) Costello goes down in the first game and is out for the season.
Not sure just who we would beat then. Maybe OSU and Colorado.
Saying you can't see five wins is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things, though.

If Mills is capable of playing, then we could actually wind up better than if Costello was our starter; if, on the other hand, Mills' knee is not up to the task, then we are probably done for.

Not being able to see five wins is pessimistic, but it isn't completely impossible.  Chances are, though, that some other teams will also have question marks and we will probably win a game or two that on paper we shouldn't.  My best guess is 7-5, (Northwestern, @OSU, Cal, @Colorado, Arizona and UCLA gets us to six and I'll say @USC to get to 7).  My upshot is 9-3; my downside take would be 4-8. 

I do like the new and improved TC.  Who bought him the new cardinal colored glasses?

BC

If Mills's knee is OK I think the key word in your comment is wind up. He may eventually be better than Costello but won't be for a while. He just hasn't played enough.
As far as TC's 180 is concerned, somehow I think he's just having fun with us.

[BostonCard]

People I trust who have seen both of them closely say he's already better.  It's not quite as cut and dry as Luck versus Pritchard, but it might be more like the dilemma we would have had if Hogan had been the incumbent and Luck the younger QB.

BC

[BostonCard]

People I trust who have seen both of them closely say he's already better.  It's not quite as cut and dry as Luck versus Pritchard, but it might be more like the dilemma we would have had if Hogan had been the incumbent and Luck the younger QB.

BC

[JohnR34231]

People I trust who have seen both of them closely say he's already better.  It's not quite as cut and dry as Luck versus Pritchard, but it might be more like the dilemma we would have had if Hogan had been the incumbent and Luck the younger QB.

BC

Those people haven't seen him in a game.
Anyway, if Costello does get injured I hope you are right.
Of course, the $64 question is will his knee hold up.

[JohnR34231]

People I trust who have seen both of them closely say he's already better.  It's not quite as cut and dry as Luck versus Pritchard, but it might be more like the dilemma we would have had if Hogan had been the incumbent and Luck the younger QB.

BC

Those people haven't seen him in a game.
Anyway, if Costello does get injured I hope you are right.
Of course, the $64 question is will his knee hold up.

[Phogge]

Who is Mills?

[Phogge]

Who is Mills?

[winflop]

I'll be happy if they play in ANY bowl game this year - before or after Christmas IDC

[winflop]

I'll be happy if they play in ANY bowl game this year - before or after Christmas IDC

[ADPinWDC]

Possible Results here:  Middle Case, we go 8-4.  
[How does one insert an image???]  

If we beat 2 of the best 4:  OREG, WASH, NDAM all in PA or @WAST up in Pullman and avoid upsets, then we go 10-2.  
As others have said, injuries could translate into losses as they did last year in the middle of the season. 
But we get TWO perfectly placed BYES.  Never had that before !

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=...ater&ifg=1

[ADPinWDC]

Possible Results here:  Middle Case, we go 8-4.  
[How does one insert an image???]  

If we beat 2 of the best 4:  OREG, WASH, NDAM all in PA or @WAST up in Pullman and avoid upsets, then we go 10-2.  
As others have said, injuries could translate into losses as they did last year in the middle of the season. 
But we get TWO perfectly placed BYES.  Never had that before !

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=...ater&ifg=1