(02-11-2019, 11:49 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I wish I could find the article, but the analytics find that the mid-range jumper is the least efficient shot in basketball. As a defense, you’ve generally won if you can force the other team to take midrange jumpers, even if they aren’t well defended. The reason is obvious; field goal percentage goes down as a function of distance from the basket, but once you hit the three point line, the value of each make goes up 50%. So, unless your mid-range jumper is 50% more likely to go in than your three point shot, you are better off backing up and taking the three, or working the ball inside further to get a higher percentage two.
BC
This is NBA data, but the pattern should be similar with college data...
![[Image: closest_defenders_pps.png]](https://cdn.toddwschneider.com/basketball/closest_defenders_pps.png)
You can see that even a closely guarded shot within 5 feet from the basket has a higher value than a wide open shot from midrange. The valley appears between 10 feet out and the three point line, and is only moderately influenced by how well defended the shot is.
BC
Yes, I referenced these analytics when I started this line of discussion. No doubt true. And it is exactly the kind of information that methodical, analytical Tara is deeply aware of. Based on our past shooting, it is clear that Tara does want either layups or treys.
However, the chart reflects averages which may not be true for certain players. There are players who make 90% of their free throws, and there are players who can practice and be trained to make a very high percentage from the elbow. If you recruit and train such a player, then you have a perfect zone-killer. If you don't, then you are utterly dependent on perfect execution to get open three point shots, and also on how dependable your shooting is from range to actually go in the hoop. And that is who we are.
Consider our three point shooting.
As a team for the season we are shooting .359 from three point range.
Against Oregon it was .227
Against Cal the first game it was .217
Against Utah it was .286
Gonzaga was an anomaly, where we shot .409 and still lost.
Now, looking at our best victories:
Against Baylor it was .433
Against Tennessee it was a whopping .583
Against ASU it was .400
Against Cal the second game it was .400
Not to be reductionist, but in all the most important games our three point shooting is pretty tightly correlated with the outcome. I suppose other things may be correlated too--rebounding, opponent's shooting percentage, etc. But the three point shooting seems to be more fickle than those other factors, and we seem to be more dependent on it this year than we have had to be in other eras.
This team has probably overperformed its talent early on--if you look at the fact that we have one senior starter on the team--and it did so by shooting lights out from three. But that shooting is cooling off and we have to find other ways to win when it does. But we haven't.