[BostonCard]

A charitable way of looking at it is that it takes a good team to play poorly and still win the game.

Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

I think the point estimate on the number of wins for the rest of the season is 1n 0 is a distinct possibility.  Our remaining schedule consists of three good to very good teams, and one ok team.  We should win Big game, but we will not if we have anything approaching this stinking pile of garbage.

Love better get better quickly.

BC

[BostonCard]

A charitable way of looking at it is that it takes a good team to play poorly and still win the game.

Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

I think the point estimate on the number of wins for the rest of the season is 1n 0 is a distinct possibility.  Our remaining schedule consists of three good to very good teams, and one ok team.  We should win Big game, but we will not if we have anything approaching this stinking pile of garbage.

Love better get better quickly.

BC

[ChicagoCard]

Call me crazy, I think Shaw makes the change. It's Costello going forward.

[ChicagoCard]

Call me crazy, I think Shaw makes the change. It's Costello going forward.

[Trevmiesterj]

[quote author=needle link=topic=17791.msg208454#msg208454 date=1509078825]
I feel dirty.

Yeah, but my kitchen floor is clean and my 5 toilets are sparkling and lime-free...
[/quote]

Who uses 5 toilets?

[Trevmiesterj]

[quote author=needle link=topic=17791.msg208454#msg208454 date=1509078825]
I feel dirty.

Yeah, but my kitchen floor is clean and my 5 toilets are sparkling and lime-free...
[/quote]

Who uses 5 toilets?

[cardcrimson]

Call me crazy, I think Shaw makes the change. It's Costello going forward.

You're Crazy.

[cardcrimson]

Call me crazy, I think Shaw makes the change. It's Costello going forward.

You're Crazy.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

So, I've had some time to collect my thoughts and I've figured it out. Shaw didn't put Costello in because he wanted the team to struggle mightily so the Hman voters would see how valuable Love is.

Brillant.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

So, I've had some time to collect my thoughts and I've figured it out. Shaw didn't put Costello in because he wanted the team to struggle mightily so the Hman voters would see how valuable Love is.

Brillant.

[ChicagoCard]

It will happen.

[ChicagoCard]

It will happen.

[SamAtoms1980]

Ugly with a capital U.

Fleming is right.

BC

I would have gone for ugly with a capital F.

We've had Tech mogul caliber games, we've had Tree caliber games, and we've had Stanford-man-or-woman caliber games.  This was an "Honorable heathen" caliber game.

[SamAtoms1980]

Ugly with a capital U.

Fleming is right.

BC

I would have gone for ugly with a capital F.

We've had Tech mogul caliber games, we've had Tree caliber games, and we've had Stanford-man-or-woman caliber games.  This was an "Honorable heathen" caliber game.

[JohnR34231]

[quote author=JPRI link=topic=17791.msg208453#msg208453 date=1509078807]
A charitable way of looking at it is that it takes a good team to play poorly and still win the game.

Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

I think the point estimate on the number of wins for the rest of the season is 1n 0 is a distinct possibility.  Our remaining schedule consists of three good to very good teams, and one ok team.  We should win Big game, but we will not if we have anything approaching this stinking pile of garbage.


Love better get better quickly.

BC
[/quote]

I said it was a charitable way. There are, as you point out, certainly plenty of other ways to look at it.
I certainly agree if Love can't play against Wazzu and the Huskies, our chances of pulling out victories are slim at best.

[JohnR34231]

[quote author=JPRI link=topic=17791.msg208453#msg208453 date=1509078807]
A charitable way of looking at it is that it takes a good team to play poorly and still win the game.

Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

I think the point estimate on the number of wins for the rest of the season is 1n 0 is a distinct possibility.  Our remaining schedule consists of three good to very good teams, and one ok team.  We should win Big game, but we will not if we have anything approaching this stinking pile of garbage.


Love better get better quickly.

BC
[/quote]

I said it was a charitable way. There are, as you point out, certainly plenty of other ways to look at it.
I certainly agree if Love can't play against Wazzu and the Huskies, our chances of pulling out victories are slim at best.

[ChicagoCard]

I just feel so dang rotten about Holder. That drive should have been over. And Holder made what should have been the stop. The two players, Edwards and the other guy, were equally getting after it. Hope he and Barton recover fully and are back next season.

[ChicagoCard]

I just feel so dang rotten about Holder. That drive should have been over. And Holder made what should have been the stop. The two players, Edwards and the other guy, were equally getting after it. Hope he and Barton recover fully and are back next season.

[doubledub]

On the post game radio show Shaw says we were outplayed and outfought for 3 and a half quarters...nothing about the coaching.

Sounds like an apologist for chryst, but he can't really throw him under the bus.

Said Bryce Love is a maybe for WSU.

And John Platz is a chicken with his postgame interviews. Never a tough question.

[doubledub]

On the post game radio show Shaw says we were outplayed and outfought for 3 and a half quarters...nothing about the coaching.

Sounds like an apologist for chryst, but he can't really throw him under the bus.

Said Bryce Love is a maybe for WSU.

And John Platz is a chicken with his postgame interviews. Never a tough question.

[washingtonismoney]

Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

Well, like it or don't, I think this comes down to Chryst, who seems like an unusually inconsistent QB. And as he goes, so too goes the team. Let's compare Chryst to the previous ... less-than-stellar QBs in Shaw's past. For sake of convenience we'll use Adjusted QBR for full games. For contrast, we'll note that Kevin Hogan's 2015 season was rated 87.3 -- third in the nation.

CHRYST:
sub-15 QBR games: 3 (I'm presuming Chryst's latest performance will rate this poorly. Maybe wrongly)
50-70 QBR games: 2
70-80: 2
80-90+: 3

BURNS:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 4
70-80: 1
80-90+: 2

NUNES:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 5
70-80: 0
80-90: 1

So, comparing the three QBs, Chryst is mindbloggingly poor *much more frequently* than Nunes and Burns, which is pretty shocking. On the other hand, he is pretty good (70-80) and excellent (80+) more frequently than Nunes and Burns too.

To me, the archetypal Chryst plays are:
1) him getting batted down at the line
2) him escaping pressure and then throwing the TD pass to Irwin. (which, granted, was negated by penalty, but not my point here. It was a great, breathtaking play from Chryst.)

It's pretty easy, if you're not analytical and rigorous, to write off 1) as just some random stuff and to focus on 2). But frequency and consistency really matter.

To put it in another sport's term, it's not all that impressive to make a layup. It's really impressive to make  70% of your layups. That's the problem with Chryst. He simply doesn't make enough of his layups, but (I'm guessing) accomplishes what he does in such seductive fashion that it's easy for the coaches to think that eventually the light bulb will turn on.

But it won't. Chryst is way too inconsistent. For a player with some fantastic physical tools, he has an unusual number of throws straight into the dirt or blocked by a defensive lineman. These are, of course, the worst kinds of misses because they don't even give your receivers a chance. But in some ways they're such weird plays that they're easy to write off. At a certain point Shaw needs to just start counting and realize that it's not happening for Chryst.

[washingtonismoney]

Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

Well, like it or don't, I think this comes down to Chryst, who seems like an unusually inconsistent QB. And as he goes, so too goes the team. Let's compare Chryst to the previous ... less-than-stellar QBs in Shaw's past. For sake of convenience we'll use Adjusted QBR for full games. For contrast, we'll note that Kevin Hogan's 2015 season was rated 87.3 -- third in the nation.

CHRYST:
sub-15 QBR games: 3 (I'm presuming Chryst's latest performance will rate this poorly. Maybe wrongly)
50-70 QBR games: 2
70-80: 2
80-90+: 3

BURNS:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 4
70-80: 1
80-90+: 2

NUNES:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 5
70-80: 0
80-90: 1

So, comparing the three QBs, Chryst is mindbloggingly poor *much more frequently* than Nunes and Burns, which is pretty shocking. On the other hand, he is pretty good (70-80) and excellent (80+) more frequently than Nunes and Burns too.

To me, the archetypal Chryst plays are:
1) him getting batted down at the line
2) him escaping pressure and then throwing the TD pass to Irwin. (which, granted, was negated by penalty, but not my point here. It was a great, breathtaking play from Chryst.)

It's pretty easy, if you're not analytical and rigorous, to write off 1) as just some random stuff and to focus on 2). But frequency and consistency really matter.

To put it in another sport's term, it's not all that impressive to make a layup. It's really impressive to make  70% of your layups. That's the problem with Chryst. He simply doesn't make enough of his layups, but (I'm guessing) accomplishes what he does in such seductive fashion that it's easy for the coaches to think that eventually the light bulb will turn on.

But it won't. Chryst is way too inconsistent. For a player with some fantastic physical tools, he has an unusual number of throws straight into the dirt or blocked by a defensive lineman. These are, of course, the worst kinds of misses because they don't even give your receivers a chance. But in some ways they're such weird plays that they're easy to write off. At a certain point Shaw needs to just start counting and realize that it's not happening for Chryst.

[deepred]

So, I've had some time to collect my thoughts and I've figured it out. Shaw didn't put Costello in because he wanted the team to struggle mightily so the Hman voters would see how valuable Love is.

Brillant.

I think Shaw was keeping things close to the vest. Trying to put as little of Costello on film as possible for future opponents. (see also: only showing one play when we are within 3 yards of the end zone)

[deepred]

So, I've had some time to collect my thoughts and I've figured it out. Shaw didn't put Costello in because he wanted the team to struggle mightily so the Hman voters would see how valuable Love is.

Brillant.

I think Shaw was keeping things close to the vest. Trying to put as little of Costello on film as possible for future opponents. (see also: only showing one play when we are within 3 yards of the end zone)

[BostonCard]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17791.msg208475#msg208475 date=1509079302]
Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

Well, like it or don't, I think this comes down to Chryst, who seems like an unusually inconsistent QB. And as he goes, so too goes the team. Let's compare Chryst to the previous ... less-than-stellar QBs in Shaw's past. For sake of convenience we'll use Adjusted QBR for full games. For contrast, we'll note that Kevin Hogan's 2015 season was rated 87.3 -- third in the nation.

CHRYST:
sub-15 QBR games: 3 (I'm presuming Chryst's latest performance will rate this poorly. Maybe wrongly)
50-70 QBR games: 2
70-80: 2
80-90+: 3

BURNS:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 4
70-80: 1
80-90+: 2

NUNES:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 5
70-80: 0
80-90: 1

So, comparing the three QBs, Chryst is mindbloggingly poor *much more frequently* than Nunes and Burns, which is pretty shocking. On the other hand, he is pretty good (70-80) and excellent (80+) more frequently than Nunes and Burns too.

To me, the archetypal Chryst plays are:
1) him getting batted down at the line
2) him escaping pressure and then throwing the TD pass to Irwin. (which, granted, was negated by penalty, but not my point here. It was a great, breathtaking play from Chryst.)

It's pretty easy, if you're not analytical and rigorous, to write off 1) as just some random stuff and to focus on 2). But frequency and consistency really matter.

To put it in another sport's term, it's not all that impressive to make a layup. It's really impressive to make  70% of your layups. That's the problem with Chryst. He simply doesn't make enough of his layups, but (I'm guessing) accomplishes what he does in such seductive fashion that it's easy for the coaches to think that eventually the light bulb will turn on.

But it won't. Chryst is way too inconsistent. For a player with some fantastic physical tools, he has an unusual number of throws straight into the dirt or blocked by a defensive lineman. These are, of course, the worst kinds of misses because they don't even give your receivers a chance. But in some ways they're such weird plays that they're easy to write off. At a certain point Shaw needs to just start counting and realize that it's not happening for Chryst.
[/quote]

ESPN box score says 25.5 for tonight, which is bad.  Probably was under 15 until the last drive (and then only starting with the fourth down throw to Smith).

BC

[BostonCard]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17791.msg208475#msg208475 date=1509079302]
Well, except this isn’t the first time we’ve played poorly this year.  I mean, bad teams don’t win 6 games (some of them blowouts against decent teams), but this performance would be more than 3 standard deviations below what a “good team” ought to do.  laying an egg like that once is improbable, but it happens (see Uw, Clemson, and WSU last week).  Doing it twice in a season suggests at best you are inconsistent or not so good.

Well, like it or don't, I think this comes down to Chryst, who seems like an unusually inconsistent QB. And as he goes, so too goes the team. Let's compare Chryst to the previous ... less-than-stellar QBs in Shaw's past. For sake of convenience we'll use Adjusted QBR for full games. For contrast, we'll note that Kevin Hogan's 2015 season was rated 87.3 -- third in the nation.

CHRYST:
sub-15 QBR games: 3 (I'm presuming Chryst's latest performance will rate this poorly. Maybe wrongly)
50-70 QBR games: 2
70-80: 2
80-90+: 3

BURNS:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 4
70-80: 1
80-90+: 2

NUNES:
sub-15 QBR games: 0
30-50 QBR games: 5
70-80: 0
80-90: 1

So, comparing the three QBs, Chryst is mindbloggingly poor *much more frequently* than Nunes and Burns, which is pretty shocking. On the other hand, he is pretty good (70-80) and excellent (80+) more frequently than Nunes and Burns too.

To me, the archetypal Chryst plays are:
1) him getting batted down at the line
2) him escaping pressure and then throwing the TD pass to Irwin. (which, granted, was negated by penalty, but not my point here. It was a great, breathtaking play from Chryst.)

It's pretty easy, if you're not analytical and rigorous, to write off 1) as just some random stuff and to focus on 2). But frequency and consistency really matter.

To put it in another sport's term, it's not all that impressive to make a layup. It's really impressive to make  70% of your layups. That's the problem with Chryst. He simply doesn't make enough of his layups, but (I'm guessing) accomplishes what he does in such seductive fashion that it's easy for the coaches to think that eventually the light bulb will turn on.

But it won't. Chryst is way too inconsistent. For a player with some fantastic physical tools, he has an unusual number of throws straight into the dirt or blocked by a defensive lineman. These are, of course, the worst kinds of misses because they don't even give your receivers a chance. But in some ways they're such weird plays that they're easy to write off. At a certain point Shaw needs to just start counting and realize that it's not happening for Chryst.
[/quote]

ESPN box score says 25.5 for tonight, which is bad.  Probably was under 15 until the last drive (and then only starting with the fourth down throw to Smith).

BC

[washingtonismoney]

ESPN box score says 25.5 for tonight, which is bad.  Probably was under 15 until the last drive (and then only starting with the fourth down throw to Smith).

BC

Neither Nunes nor Burns had a full game below 30,* so that particular figure doesn't invalidate my point. (Not saying that's what you're trying to do, just noting it for the record.)

*(Well, it depends on how you count the UNC game. Burns's was 28.4.)

Anyway, the weirdest part of Shaw's coaching career has arguably been his quarterbacks. I mean more than "will he switch them/will he won't," which is over-discussed. I guess Chryst's polarized career -- a lot of BAD and a lot of GOOD -- is a decent metaphor for Shaw's, too. Because he never has an adequate quarterback. There isn't a solid Sean Mannion-type guy.

It's either brilliant or great QBs (Luck, Hogan) or, ah, nice kids who are good student-athletes, shall we say.

[washingtonismoney]

ESPN box score says 25.5 for tonight, which is bad.  Probably was under 15 until the last drive (and then only starting with the fourth down throw to Smith).

BC

Neither Nunes nor Burns had a full game below 30,* so that particular figure doesn't invalidate my point. (Not saying that's what you're trying to do, just noting it for the record.)

*(Well, it depends on how you count the UNC game. Burns's was 28.4.)

Anyway, the weirdest part of Shaw's coaching career has arguably been his quarterbacks. I mean more than "will he switch them/will he won't," which is over-discussed. I guess Chryst's polarized career -- a lot of BAD and a lot of GOOD -- is a decent metaphor for Shaw's, too. Because he never has an adequate quarterback. There isn't a solid Sean Mannion-type guy.

It's either brilliant or great QBs (Luck, Hogan) or, ah, nice kids who are good student-athletes, shall we say.

[BostonCard]

Maybe I’m being pop psychologist here, but I have a feeling that Chryst’s problems are mental.  We obviously know he is capable of playing well, making the decisions and hitting the throws he needs to.  As you point out, he has had some good and great QBR games, and it was more than just going up against a bad defense.  But it seems like when he has a bad game, he is aiming his throws, thinking too much about his receiver, holding the ball too long, evidently waiting too long for the “right time”.  It feels as if he is pressing.  The times when he hasn’t is when his back is against the wall (game winning drives against UCLA and OSU tonight) and games when he just goes out and plays football (as cliched as that is),either because Love has given the team a big lead early, or he is just confident and goes out and plays, makes a couple of nice throws, and the confidence feeds on itself.  But have a couple mistakes (like the near interceptions tonight) and the confidence is gone, and the wheels start falling off.

My guess is the coaches really believe he is capable of playing at a high level routinely.  I’m not privy to what goes on behind the scenes, but yeah, I think they are waiting for the light to go off, and worry that if they pull him out of a game, that’s it.

But yeah, at some point you wonder if the QB will ever be able to put it all together.  How long do you wait before concluding that he just doesn’t have “it” and the light will go off too late or never at all, and that even if he has stretches of playing well, one bad throw and he falls back to his bad habits.  That’s more or less where I am with Chryst.  We have four games left plus a bowl, all against tough opponents.  We don’t have the luxury of having him play like he has too many times.

I hope Shaw starts Costello from here on out.  But if he sticks withChryst, I hope he knows something that I don’t and that Chryst rewards his “stubbornness”.

BC

[BostonCard]

Maybe I’m being pop psychologist here, but I have a feeling that Chryst’s problems are mental.  We obviously know he is capable of playing well, making the decisions and hitting the throws he needs to.  As you point out, he has had some good and great QBR games, and it was more than just going up against a bad defense.  But it seems like when he has a bad game, he is aiming his throws, thinking too much about his receiver, holding the ball too long, evidently waiting too long for the “right time”.  It feels as if he is pressing.  The times when he hasn’t is when his back is against the wall (game winning drives against UCLA and OSU tonight) and games when he just goes out and plays football (as cliched as that is),either because Love has given the team a big lead early, or he is just confident and goes out and plays, makes a couple of nice throws, and the confidence feeds on itself.  But have a couple mistakes (like the near interceptions tonight) and the confidence is gone, and the wheels start falling off.

My guess is the coaches really believe he is capable of playing at a high level routinely.  I’m not privy to what goes on behind the scenes, but yeah, I think they are waiting for the light to go off, and worry that if they pull him out of a game, that’s it.

But yeah, at some point you wonder if the QB will ever be able to put it all together.  How long do you wait before concluding that he just doesn’t have “it” and the light will go off too late or never at all, and that even if he has stretches of playing well, one bad throw and he falls back to his bad habits.  That’s more or less where I am with Chryst.  We have four games left plus a bowl, all against tough opponents.  We don’t have the luxury of having him play like he has too many times.

I hope Shaw starts Costello from here on out.  But if he sticks withChryst, I hope he knows something that I don’t and that Chryst rewards his “stubbornness”.

BC

[amartinsu13]

18.8 QBR for Chryst.  Abysmal.

https://imgur.com/a/6Wdr0

[amartinsu13]

18.8 QBR for Chryst.  Abysmal.

https://imgur.com/a/6Wdr0

[JeffInCorvallis]

Just returned from the game. Wow, what an inept performance. I've never had to say I am embarrassed that we won before. We were outplayed at nearly every level up until the Nall fumble.

Cannot understand why Shaw did not play Costello when Chryst was definitely struggling. Makes me think he has an undisclosed injury. But it's not all on Chryst. At times there were some nice holes for Scarlett and he either missed them completely or didn't hit them fast enough.

Defense played an average game against an undermanned opponent. I knew that Nall would get his yards against us. But untimely penalties were horrible. Roughing the passer. Roughing the kicker. Personal fouls. Almost always on third down.

[JeffInCorvallis]

Just returned from the game. Wow, what an inept performance. I've never had to say I am embarrassed that we won before. We were outplayed at nearly every level up until the Nall fumble.

Cannot understand why Shaw did not play Costello when Chryst was definitely struggling. Makes me think he has an undisclosed injury. But it's not all on Chryst. At times there were some nice holes for Scarlett and he either missed them completely or didn't hit them fast enough.

Defense played an average game against an undermanned opponent. I knew that Nall would get his yards against us. But untimely penalties were horrible. Roughing the passer. Roughing the kicker. Personal fouls. Almost always on third down.

[ChicagoCard]

Maybe I’m being pop psychologist here, but I have a feeling that Chryst’s problems are mental.

I have thought that too, and all the more reason Shaw wants to stick with him and to see him break through.

[ChicagoCard]

Maybe I’m being pop psychologist here, but I have a feeling that Chryst’s problems are mental.

I have thought that too, and all the more reason Shaw wants to stick with him and to see him break through.

[deepred]

What baffles me is Shaw was willing to play two QBs against Utah and Oregon, when Chryst wasn't playing this poorly. So why doesn't he play his second QB when Chryst is struggling?

[deepred]

What baffles me is Shaw was willing to play two QBs against Utah and Oregon, when Chryst wasn't playing this poorly. So why doesn't he play his second QB when Chryst is struggling?

[thunder_chik]

[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=17791.msg208474#msg208474 date=1509079282]
[quote author=needle link=topic=17791.msg208454#msg208454 date=1509078825]
I feel dirty.

Yeah, but my kitchen floor is clean and my 5 toilets are sparkling and lime-free...
[/quote]

Who uses 5 toilets?
[/quote]
We only use 4; the 5th is for guests.

[thunder_chik]

[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=17791.msg208474#msg208474 date=1509079282]
[quote author=needle link=topic=17791.msg208454#msg208454 date=1509078825]
I feel dirty.

Yeah, but my kitchen floor is clean and my 5 toilets are sparkling and lime-free...
[/quote]

Who uses 5 toilets?
[/quote]
We only use 4; the 5th is for guests.