[Spiny_Norman]

FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

The tournament starts with 72 holes of medal play (there will be a cut after 54 holes; only the top 15 12 teams play the final round).  Then the top 8 teams advance to match play.  The teams that play in the finals will play 6 straight days of golf.  Today is Day 1.  Don't overreact to the results. Stanford is at 311, +23 which is T3, a good position.  The goal is to survive and advance. 

The team needs to eat and then get some sleep.  They will be teeing off tomorrow beginning at 7:30 am central time (weather permitting).

Btw, the average score for the players in the afternoon wave who have completed their rounds is nearly identical to the average score from this morning.  By the numbers, we don't yet see an advantage or a penalty for those in the afternoon. The conditions are about equally tough for everyone.

[Spiny_Norman]

FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

The tournament starts with 72 holes of medal play (there will be a cut after 54 holes; only the top 15 12 teams play the final round).  Then the top 8 teams advance to match play.  The teams that play in the finals will play 6 straight days of golf.  Today is Day 1.  Don't overreact to the results. Stanford is at 311, +23 which is T3, a good position.  The goal is to survive and advance. 

The team needs to eat and then get some sleep.  They will be teeing off tomorrow beginning at 7:30 am central time (weather permitting).

Btw, the average score for the players in the afternoon wave who have completed their rounds is nearly identical to the average score from this morning.  By the numbers, we don't yet see an advantage or a penalty for those in the afternoon. The conditions are about equally tough for everyone.

[oldalum]

FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

At least statistically that is certainly possible but unlikely. Two teams are 10+ strokes ahead of the field of 24, and both teams are in the same group of three (out of 8). The odds of two leaders being in the same group are only 1 in 8, but the odds of two runaway leaders being in the same group are less than that. Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently)

[oldalum]

FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

At least statistically that is certainly possible but unlikely. Two teams are 10+ strokes ahead of the field of 24, and both teams are in the same group of three (out of 8). The odds of two leaders being in the same group are only 1 in 8, but the odds of two runaway leaders being in the same group are less than that. Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently)

[Farm93]

[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=16912.msg193435#msg193435 date=1495239570]
FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

At least statistically that is certainly possible but unlikely. Two teams are 10+ strokes ahead of the field of 24, and both teams are in the same group of three (out of 8). The odds of two leaders being in the same group are only 1 in 8, but the odds of two runaway leaders being in the same group are less than that. Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently)
[/quote]
Not only that but Miami, the third team in the group, is also sitting just one stroke out of third.  #1, #2 and one stroke out of third all from the same group???!!!  A group without a single team ranked in the NCAA top 10? Hmmmm...

Statistics are fine, but easier to check out weather.com in this case.  As Stanford played the first 6 holes the strongest rain of the day, and the last heavy rain, pushed across the course.  Then as these three schools hit the course, that rain cell of yellow and orange on radar had moved away. 

BTW if I am a coach, I would have wanted to be in that last block of teams.  I actually hoped the morning groups would keep struggling as weather.com had a forecast for a rain-free late afternoon (~4PM local time).  And in tournament level golf there is often a benefit to playing right after rain as hard greens are softer and easier to attack.

Stroke play is not the end of the deal here, so even if these two schools maintained most of this statistically lucky lead over the next three days it would not matter too much.

Oddly, it may help Stanford.  I might be easier to battle Kent State and their weather assisted stroke plan result than Alabama or some of the other top 10 team that got drenched in the rain and didn't rally up to finish strong, like Stanford.

FWIW - It will be interesting to see how all of the teams respond to a mentally tough day.  Most of the teams could still make the final 8 with a few good days.  It will probably make the next few days more entertaining as great teams try to make up ground.

[Farm93]

[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=16912.msg193435#msg193435 date=1495239570]
FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

At least statistically that is certainly possible but unlikely. Two teams are 10+ strokes ahead of the field of 24, and both teams are in the same group of three (out of 8). The odds of two leaders being in the same group are only 1 in 8, but the odds of two runaway leaders being in the same group are less than that. Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently)
[/quote]
Not only that but Miami, the third team in the group, is also sitting just one stroke out of third.  #1, #2 and one stroke out of third all from the same group???!!!  A group without a single team ranked in the NCAA top 10? Hmmmm...

Statistics are fine, but easier to check out weather.com in this case.  As Stanford played the first 6 holes the strongest rain of the day, and the last heavy rain, pushed across the course.  Then as these three schools hit the course, that rain cell of yellow and orange on radar had moved away. 

BTW if I am a coach, I would have wanted to be in that last block of teams.  I actually hoped the morning groups would keep struggling as weather.com had a forecast for a rain-free late afternoon (~4PM local time).  And in tournament level golf there is often a benefit to playing right after rain as hard greens are softer and easier to attack.

Stroke play is not the end of the deal here, so even if these two schools maintained most of this statistically lucky lead over the next three days it would not matter too much.

Oddly, it may help Stanford.  I might be easier to battle Kent State and their weather assisted stroke plan result than Alabama or some of the other top 10 team that got drenched in the rain and didn't rally up to finish strong, like Stanford.

FWIW - It will be interesting to see how all of the teams respond to a mentally tough day.  Most of the teams could still make the final 8 with a few good days.  It will probably make the next few days more entertaining as great teams try to make up ground.

[oldalum]

Again, a good indication of how well our team played today is that our playing partners, #3 Florida and #2 Alabama, finished at +32 and +40 respectively (versus our +23), and they did have to play in the exact same conditions as we did. Alabama had to count two players who ended +13 and +15. I suspect Coach Walker is very pleased with how the team did today, with disaster potentially looming on every hole.

[oldalum]

Again, a good indication of how well our team played today is that our playing partners, #3 Florida and #2 Alabama, finished at +32 and +40 respectively (versus our +23), and they did have to play in the exact same conditions as we did. Alabama had to count two players who ended +13 and +15. I suspect Coach Walker is very pleased with how the team did today, with disaster potentially looming on every hole.

[Hulk01]

Northwestern's campus  is just an hour drive from Rich Harvest Farms.  The Wildcat’s, a top 15 team, have played and mapped this course and know its quirks.  And they’re sleeping at home and playing in their time zone.

Of the four other teams that teed off at the same time as Northwestern and Kent State, #11 South Carolina is in seventh, #13 Miami is in 12th, #9 Furman in 18th, and #8 Duke is in 19th.  And two of the nation’s top ten teams aren’t in the tournament.  So I don’t detect ah advantage in the 1:36 tee time.

And we, along with Alabama and Florida, played only four holes before NW and Kent State teed off.  We played those holes in +2.  Northwestern played them in +6, Kent State in +3. 

The disadvantage in this event appears to be playing on a team from the deep South.  Duke and Furman again, along with Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, all suffered bad days.  It will be a big surprise if at least three of those teams fail to climb back toward the top tomorrow. 

[Hulk01]

Northwestern's campus  is just an hour drive from Rich Harvest Farms.  The Wildcat’s, a top 15 team, have played and mapped this course and know its quirks.  And they’re sleeping at home and playing in their time zone.

Of the four other teams that teed off at the same time as Northwestern and Kent State, #11 South Carolina is in seventh, #13 Miami is in 12th, #9 Furman in 18th, and #8 Duke is in 19th.  And two of the nation’s top ten teams aren’t in the tournament.  So I don’t detect ah advantage in the 1:36 tee time.

And we, along with Alabama and Florida, played only four holes before NW and Kent State teed off.  We played those holes in +2.  Northwestern played them in +6, Kent State in +3. 

The disadvantage in this event appears to be playing on a team from the deep South.  Duke and Furman again, along with Alabama, Florida, and Florida State, all suffered bad days.  It will be a big surprise if at least three of those teams fail to climb back toward the top tomorrow. 

[Hulk01]

There's nothing unusual in having two non-top ten college teams like Northwestern and Kent State being in the lead after a first round--or even after several more

Last year, the second place team after four rounds was the nation's #12 team--us.  #13 Washington finished fourth, #15 Virginia was fifth, and #18 South Carolina was seventh.  Meanwhile, #4 Florida and #5 Georgia didn't even get to the final day of stoke play.  They failed to make the 15 team cut after three rounds.

College golf is funky.  (As if golf isn't)  You don't see the extreme differences in teams that you see n football or basketball.  One reason may be scholarship limitations.  In football and basketball, you have far more scholarships (85 and 13 respectively) than you have starters.  In golf, however, you have only 4.5, so your fifth and sometimes your fourth spots can be very iffy  Now throw in the fact that while football fields and basketball courts are basically the same wherever you go, golf courses run the gamut, including being covered in three very different types of grass.  Some courses--as many of you know--favor a certain style (Nicklaus is famous for designing courses that suit his high fade). 

And so on.

So this is golf.  And college tennis, perhaps also in part because of the 4.5 scholarship limit, has a little of this. Stanford's women have hinted at this by by twice winning national championships with teams not rated in the top ten.

[Hulk01]

There's nothing unusual in having two non-top ten college teams like Northwestern and Kent State being in the lead after a first round--or even after several more

Last year, the second place team after four rounds was the nation's #12 team--us.  #13 Washington finished fourth, #15 Virginia was fifth, and #18 South Carolina was seventh.  Meanwhile, #4 Florida and #5 Georgia didn't even get to the final day of stoke play.  They failed to make the 15 team cut after three rounds.

College golf is funky.  (As if golf isn't)  You don't see the extreme differences in teams that you see n football or basketball.  One reason may be scholarship limitations.  In football and basketball, you have far more scholarships (85 and 13 respectively) than you have starters.  In golf, however, you have only 4.5, so your fifth and sometimes your fourth spots can be very iffy  Now throw in the fact that while football fields and basketball courts are basically the same wherever you go, golf courses run the gamut, including being covered in three very different types of grass.  Some courses--as many of you know--favor a certain style (Nicklaus is famous for designing courses that suit his high fade). 

And so on.

So this is golf.  And college tennis, perhaps also in part because of the 4.5 scholarship limit, has a little of this. Stanford's women have hinted at this by by twice winning national championships with teams not rated in the top ten.

[oldalum]

Of the four other teams that teed off at the same time as Northwestern and Kent State, #11 South Carolina is in seventh, #13 Miami is in 12th, #9 Furman in 18th, and #8 Duke is in 19th.  And two of the nation’s top ten teams aren’t in the tournament.  So I don’t detect ah advantage in the 1:36 tee time.

And we, along with Alabama and Florida, played only four holes before NW and Kent State teed off.  We played those holes in +2.  Northwestern played them in +6, Kent State in +3. 

You inadvertently illustrated my point quite well! ( Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently), because the group of SoCarolina, Furman and Duke that teed off at the same time as NW and Kent St and did so poorly actually started on the 10th hole (as did we), while NW and Kent St started at the same time on the first hole. And the first four holes of the course that we actually played better than NW and Kent State: we played them much later than them, rather than 4 holes ahead of them. So NW and Kent State did in fact have much different and presumably better conditions for the holes they played at the times they played them than we did or than the even better comparison group you cited. And we know the weather changed, because the Duke website's recap says they started on 10 and played their first nine holes in a heavy rain. Based on this round, I would say that the back nine plays much worse in bad rain than the front nine. So while NW and Kent State certainly played well, I doubt they were playing that much better than everyone else.

[oldalum]

Of the four other teams that teed off at the same time as Northwestern and Kent State, #11 South Carolina is in seventh, #13 Miami is in 12th, #9 Furman in 18th, and #8 Duke is in 19th.  And two of the nation’s top ten teams aren’t in the tournament.  So I don’t detect ah advantage in the 1:36 tee time.

And we, along with Alabama and Florida, played only four holes before NW and Kent State teed off.  We played those holes in +2.  Northwestern played them in +6, Kent State in +3. 

You inadvertently illustrated my point quite well! ( Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently), because the group of SoCarolina, Furman and Duke that teed off at the same time as NW and Kent St and did so poorly actually started on the 10th hole (as did we), while NW and Kent St started at the same time on the first hole. And the first four holes of the course that we actually played better than NW and Kent State: we played them much later than them, rather than 4 holes ahead of them. So NW and Kent State did in fact have much different and presumably better conditions for the holes they played at the times they played them than we did or than the even better comparison group you cited. And we know the weather changed, because the Duke website's recap says they started on 10 and played their first nine holes in a heavy rain. Based on this round, I would say that the back nine plays much worse in bad rain than the front nine. So while NW and Kent State certainly played well, I doubt they were playing that much better than everyone else.

[oldalum]

There's nothing unusual in having two non-top ten college teams like Northwestern and Kent State being in the lead after a first round--or even after several more.

If this is replying to me, that was not my point. My point was about having two runaway leaders. After one round, the scores tend to be bunched. For example, last year the two top teams after the first round were only 3 ahead of third place. To have two teams so far distance themselves from the rest of the field (which is tightly bunched beginning at +23) means they are extreme outliers. So either they just played extremely better than everyone else (your theory) or they played well and also got some help that many of the other teams that would have normally been closer to them didn't get (my theory). No way to prove either theory so we'll just have to agree to disagree.  ;D

[oldalum]

There's nothing unusual in having two non-top ten college teams like Northwestern and Kent State being in the lead after a first round--or even after several more.

If this is replying to me, that was not my point. My point was about having two runaway leaders. After one round, the scores tend to be bunched. For example, last year the two top teams after the first round were only 3 ahead of third place. To have two teams so far distance themselves from the rest of the field (which is tightly bunched beginning at +23) means they are extreme outliers. So either they just played extremely better than everyone else (your theory) or they played well and also got some help that many of the other teams that would have normally been closer to them didn't get (my theory). No way to prove either theory so we'll just have to agree to disagree.  ;D

[Hulk01]

It's never occurred to me that some holes are more influenced by wet and cold weather than others, much less that an entire nine hole stretch might be. 

But here again, I think you find it incomprehensible--or close to it--that the #12 and #14 ranked college teams could be leading the national championship after the first round--unless they have some unusual, and perhaps unfair, advantage.  But this happens all the time in college golf-even after two, three or four rounds--again, think of last year and #!2 Stanford, #13 Washington, #15 UVA, and #20 South Carolina all making it to the final eight, while #4 Florida and #5 Georgia failed to crack the final #15. 

And to take it one step farther: Last year, #13 and #12 advanced to the final, where #13 won.  Right now, after a relatively small sample of holes, Northwestern and Kent State are this year's Washington and Stanford.

[Hulk01]

It's never occurred to me that some holes are more influenced by wet and cold weather than others, much less that an entire nine hole stretch might be. 

But here again, I think you find it incomprehensible--or close to it--that the #12 and #14 ranked college teams could be leading the national championship after the first round--unless they have some unusual, and perhaps unfair, advantage.  But this happens all the time in college golf-even after two, three or four rounds--again, think of last year and #!2 Stanford, #13 Washington, #15 UVA, and #20 South Carolina all making it to the final eight, while #4 Florida and #5 Georgia failed to crack the final #15. 

And to take it one step farther: Last year, #13 and #12 advanced to the final, where #13 won.  Right now, after a relatively small sample of holes, Northwestern and Kent State are this year's Washington and Stanford.

[FarmDad.01]

If you check out the weather forecast for Zip: 60554, quite possibly no golf today and if they can start the ayem groups, unlikely the afternoon groups can finish.

[FarmDad.01]

If you check out the weather forecast for Zip: 60554, quite possibly no golf today and if they can start the ayem groups, unlikely the afternoon groups can finish.

[DC 86]

There is no way to definitively settle this debate, and I hesitate to look for excuses or to denigrate teams' performances, but you fail to address old alum's critical point regarding the margin by which NW and Kent distanced themselves from the field. The twelve teams between T3 and T13 are all within six strokes of each other (+23 to +29) while NW is ten stokes ahead and Kent is eight strokes ahead of that group. So the distribution is unusual and the fact that NW and Kent played in the same group is noteworthy.

I suspect that the first rounds results are a combination of superior play and some sort of weather-related advantage. The good news is that under this format the only thing that matters is finishing in the top eight.

[DC 86]

There is no way to definitively settle this debate, and I hesitate to look for excuses or to denigrate teams' performances, but you fail to address old alum's critical point regarding the margin by which NW and Kent distanced themselves from the field. The twelve teams between T3 and T13 are all within six strokes of each other (+23 to +29) while NW is ten stokes ahead and Kent is eight strokes ahead of that group. So the distribution is unusual and the fact that NW and Kent played in the same group is noteworthy.

I suspect that the first rounds results are a combination of superior play and some sort of weather-related advantage. The good news is that under this format the only thing that matters is finishing in the top eight.

[StanfordMatt]

No golf today. Field will be cut to 8 teams and move onto match play after 54 holes. This will make it even harder for top teams like Alabama who struggled on day 1 to recover.

[StanfordMatt]

No golf today. Field will be cut to 8 teams and move onto match play after 54 holes. This will make it even harder for top teams like Alabama who struggled on day 1 to recover.

[oldalum]

It's never occurred to me that some holes are more influenced by wet and cold weather than others, much less that an entire nine hole stretch might be. 

But here again, I think you find it incomprehensible--or close to it--that the #12 and #14 ranked college teams could be leading the national championship after the first round--unless they have some unusual, and perhaps unfair, advantage.

On the first sentence, it's not just water, it's wind strength, wind direction in particular, and gusting too. Some holes have wider fairway landing areas so are more forgiving in adverse conditions. Same for greens. Other holes may have ample landing spots for normal length drives but tight margins for shorter drives (which is probably partly why the tees were moved up 30-40 yards on a number of holes before play started in the first round). Doesn't have to be true for 9 holes in a row, and probably isn't. But I think it would be unlikely on a majority of courses for the first 9 holes in aggregate to be affected identically as the second 9 holes by extremes in conditions.

On your second quoted sentence above, I can definitively say you think wrong. I completely agree with your point.

[oldalum]

It's never occurred to me that some holes are more influenced by wet and cold weather than others, much less that an entire nine hole stretch might be. 

But here again, I think you find it incomprehensible--or close to it--that the #12 and #14 ranked college teams could be leading the national championship after the first round--unless they have some unusual, and perhaps unfair, advantage.

On the first sentence, it's not just water, it's wind strength, wind direction in particular, and gusting too. Some holes have wider fairway landing areas so are more forgiving in adverse conditions. Same for greens. Other holes may have ample landing spots for normal length drives but tight margins for shorter drives (which is probably partly why the tees were moved up 30-40 yards on a number of holes before play started in the first round). Doesn't have to be true for 9 holes in a row, and probably isn't. But I think it would be unlikely on a majority of courses for the first 9 holes in aggregate to be affected identically as the second 9 holes by extremes in conditions.

On your second quoted sentence above, I can definitively say you think wrong. I completely agree with your point.

[BobK]

We are + 4 early. 

[BobK]

We are + 4 early. 

[Hulk01]

Scores tending lower, but that highest-ranked teams started first.  Stanford is right where it was yesterday at this point.   

The big news is that Alabama, #2, may have just shot itself out of the event.  It's #4 and #5 have played 13 holes in 11-over.  And Florida isn't moving up.

ASU still solid, as is Northwestern.

[Hulk01]

Scores tending lower, but that highest-ranked teams started first.  Stanford is right where it was yesterday at this point.   

The big news is that Alabama, #2, may have just shot itself out of the event.  It's #4 and #5 have played 13 holes in 11-over.  And Florida isn't moving up.

ASU still solid, as is Northwestern.

[slide]

in a 3 way tie for 6th.  1 shot ahead of 9th.

[slide]

in a 3 way tie for 6th.  1 shot ahead of 9th.

[Hulk01]

Duke, Furman, and Florida still not trending up.  The final eight teams into match play might include not more than three top ten teams.

[Hulk01]

Duke, Furman, and Florida still not trending up.  The final eight teams into match play might include not more than three top ten teams.

[StanfordMatt]

Going to go out on a limb and say that Northwestern seems to know this course pretty well regardless of the weather or tee times.

[StanfordMatt]

Going to go out on a limb and say that Northwestern seems to know this course pretty well regardless of the weather or tee times.

[Hulk01]

#7 ASU just got hit with a two-hole barrage of bogeys and worse.   

Yes, Northwestern is playing from the junior tees.

[Hulk01]

#7 ASU just got hit with a two-hole barrage of bogeys and worse.   

Yes, Northwestern is playing from the junior tees.

[oldalum]

Everyone is playing under similar conditions today, so although it is early it is clear that Kent State is returning to the rest of the field as expected, and that Northwestern is playing on a different golf course.

[oldalum]

Everyone is playing under similar conditions today, so although it is early it is clear that Kent State is returning to the rest of the field as expected, and that Northwestern is playing on a different golf course.