05-23-2017, 12:18 PM
OK, now for all the marbles against our nemesis the past several years, the Florida Gators.Â
I. BACKGROUND AND LOGISTICS
* Logistics: The match was originally scheduled to air on ESPNU at 5pm ET/2pm PT, but was first pushed back to 6pm ET/3pm PT, and has apparently now been pushed back to no earlier than 8pm ET/5pm PT, per Florida's team twitter account. The NCAA is still holding out hope that they can play it outdoors, but it looks like the men's final is going to start at 4pm ET/1pm PT at the UGA indoor courts in Athens. Since I'd expect 5 and 6 to be two of our stronger courts against Florida, playing indoor on UGA's courts would seem to be a disadvantage. At this point, just send us back to Atlanta!
* Rankings: Florida is ranked and seeded #1. Stanford is ranked #6 and seeded #7. Florida has three losses on the year, two to Vanderbilt (4-2 in the regular season and 4-3 in the SEC final) and one to Georgia (4-1). Stanford's losses were to, well, Florida (4-1) and #12 Pepperdine (5-2).Â
* Road to the final: Florida beat #20 Texas A&M 4-1 in the R16, #9 Oklahoma State 4-1 in the QFs, and #4 Vanderbilt 4-2 in the semifinals. By contrast, Stanford beat #10 Michigan 4-1 in the R16, #2 North Carolina 4-2 in the QFs, and #3 Ohio State 4-3 in the semifinals. We've had the harder road, and as Taylor Davidson's trip to the hospital in the wee hours this morning shows, we're feeling it a little.Â
* Head to head: Back in February, Stanford lost 4-1 to Florida in Gainesville. In that match, Florida rolled to the doubles point with a 6-3 win at #1 and a 6-1 win at #3. Doyle then lost quickly at #2, Higuchi got a point on the board with a 6-2, 6-1 win, Lampl lost 7-5 in the third set to make it 3-1, and Florida sealed the deal at #1, where Davidson lost her third set 6-0. (At the time, Lord was trailing in her third set at #3, and Arbuthnott had lost her first set 7-6 and was on serve late in the second set.) So, not all that close.Â
II. BUT WHAT ABOUT VANDERBILT?Â
Stanford beat Vanderbilt 4-3 at Taube the week after the Florida loss, and Vanderbilt beat Florida twice, 4-2 in the regular season and 4-3 in the SEC final. (They avenged those losses with a 4-2 semifinal win yesterday.) A few points about those matches:Â
(1) Our top three were different than today in both the Florida loss and the Vanderbilt win. Davidson was at 1, Doyle was at 2, and Lord was at 3. So the matchups aren't the same.
(2) Against Vanderbilt, Stanford won the doubles point with strong wins at #2 and #3. Vanderbilt's Sharma then beat Davidson handily at #1, Lord got the win at #3 over Sellyn, 6-0, 7-5, Doyle lost in three sets to Campbell at #2, Higuchi beat Smith in three sets at #6, Lampl lost a third-set tiebreaker to Rosca, and Arbuthnott clinched by winning her own third-set tiebreaker over Kurtz. When Vanderbilt beat Florida the first time, they did it by getting the doubles point, and getting singles wins at 1, 2, and 6, losing or trailing at 3, 4, and 5. When they did it the second time, Vandy lost the doubles point, but got singles wins at 1, 2, 3, and 6. Yesterday, Florida won by getting the doubles point and reversing course at #1, finally beating Sharma there (Vandy still won at 2 and 3, and 6 was still ongoing when the match was decided).Â
(3) So, there are some lessons there. If you want to beat Florida, you get the doubles point. (Duh, right?) They're vulnerable at #2 and #6. We're good at #2 and #6.Â
III. THE MATCHUPS
But ultimately, looking at the individual matches, this isn't as much like UNC or Ohio State where we can reasonably envision a path to a win based on past results and guess how things might play out. No, to win, we need to pull some upsets--the Florida player is ranked higher in all doubles matches and singles matches except for #5, where both players are unranked. We can pull it off--this is Stanford women's tennis, after all--but we are by no means favored. Here are the matchups, assuming Davidson can go:
Doubles:
#1. #39 Arbuthnott/Davidson vs. #11 Anna Danilina/Ingrid Neel
#2. #46 Doyle/Lord vs. #20 Brooke Austin/Kourtney Keegan
#3. Higuchi/Lampl vs. #45 Josie Kuhlman/Belina Woolcock
So, Florida is favored at each doubles spot. Back in February, the #1 and #2 Florida pairs were swapped. Austin/Keegan beat Arbuthnott/Davidson 6-3, Kuhlman/Woolcock beat Higuchi/Lampl 6-1, and Doyle/Lord were tied 4-4 with Danilina/Neel. Hard to overstate how important the doubles point is in a match like this. It's always mathematically important, of course, as one point of the seven available. But when singles wins start looking harder to find, doubles can provide a brobdingnagian psychological boost in addition to the mathematical one.Â
Singles:
#1. #38 Doyle vs. #6 Woolcock. Doyle lost 6-1, 6-3 to Neel in February at #2.Â
#2. #28 Lord vs. #23 Kuhlman. Lord was trailing Danilina 4-1 in the third set at #3 when the match was decided.
#3. #54 Davidson vs. #31 Neel. Davidson lost to Woolcock in February at #1, but it went three sets (though Woolcock won 6-0 in the third).
#4. #90 Lampl vs. #44 Danilina. Lampl lost to Austin 7-5 in the third set at #4.Â
#5. Arbuthnott vs. Austin. Arbuthnott trailed Kuhlman 7-6, 5-4 at #5 back in February.
#6. #71 Higuchi vs. #59 Keegan. Higuchi beat Spencer Liang 6-2, 6-1 at #6, but Keegan has bumped Liang from the lineup.Â
So, it's an interesting situation where the rematch against Florida involves no individual rematches. All six players will be playing different Florida players than they played last time. Since last time didn't exactly go well for us, hopefully this lineup shuffling means our players go into the match with a clean mental slate without any baggage from the last match against Florida. But this is the toughest matchup for us. Woolcock can be beaten by a top #1, but our strength isn't at #1 this year. Their strongest courts are at 3-5, where we usually pick up a couple of points.Â
So how do we win, when the odds seem stacked against us, even if Davidson is ready to go? Well, come out firing with the doubles point, and put the Gators back on their heels. Get strong showings from Higuchi, Lord, and Arbuthnott, limit the damage to Doyle at 1, and hope Davidson and Lampl can stay in their matches. If Florida wins the doubles point, then you either need Lampl to elevate her game or for Davidson to somehow pull off yet another upset. For Taylor's sake, though, let's hope our players somehow race to quick and easy wins so she doesn't have to play another marathon match--she could use a nap!Â
(If Davidson can't go, an already daunting task starts to look grim. #6 turns from an asset to a liability, and wins at #3-#5 become somewhat less likely. But the benefit of this match continuing to be pushed back because of weather is it makes it likelier that Davidson will be available to play.)
I. BACKGROUND AND LOGISTICS
* Logistics: The match was originally scheduled to air on ESPNU at 5pm ET/2pm PT, but was first pushed back to 6pm ET/3pm PT, and has apparently now been pushed back to no earlier than 8pm ET/5pm PT, per Florida's team twitter account. The NCAA is still holding out hope that they can play it outdoors, but it looks like the men's final is going to start at 4pm ET/1pm PT at the UGA indoor courts in Athens. Since I'd expect 5 and 6 to be two of our stronger courts against Florida, playing indoor on UGA's courts would seem to be a disadvantage. At this point, just send us back to Atlanta!
* Rankings: Florida is ranked and seeded #1. Stanford is ranked #6 and seeded #7. Florida has three losses on the year, two to Vanderbilt (4-2 in the regular season and 4-3 in the SEC final) and one to Georgia (4-1). Stanford's losses were to, well, Florida (4-1) and #12 Pepperdine (5-2).Â
* Road to the final: Florida beat #20 Texas A&M 4-1 in the R16, #9 Oklahoma State 4-1 in the QFs, and #4 Vanderbilt 4-2 in the semifinals. By contrast, Stanford beat #10 Michigan 4-1 in the R16, #2 North Carolina 4-2 in the QFs, and #3 Ohio State 4-3 in the semifinals. We've had the harder road, and as Taylor Davidson's trip to the hospital in the wee hours this morning shows, we're feeling it a little.Â
* Head to head: Back in February, Stanford lost 4-1 to Florida in Gainesville. In that match, Florida rolled to the doubles point with a 6-3 win at #1 and a 6-1 win at #3. Doyle then lost quickly at #2, Higuchi got a point on the board with a 6-2, 6-1 win, Lampl lost 7-5 in the third set to make it 3-1, and Florida sealed the deal at #1, where Davidson lost her third set 6-0. (At the time, Lord was trailing in her third set at #3, and Arbuthnott had lost her first set 7-6 and was on serve late in the second set.) So, not all that close.Â
II. BUT WHAT ABOUT VANDERBILT?Â
Stanford beat Vanderbilt 4-3 at Taube the week after the Florida loss, and Vanderbilt beat Florida twice, 4-2 in the regular season and 4-3 in the SEC final. (They avenged those losses with a 4-2 semifinal win yesterday.) A few points about those matches:Â
(1) Our top three were different than today in both the Florida loss and the Vanderbilt win. Davidson was at 1, Doyle was at 2, and Lord was at 3. So the matchups aren't the same.
(2) Against Vanderbilt, Stanford won the doubles point with strong wins at #2 and #3. Vanderbilt's Sharma then beat Davidson handily at #1, Lord got the win at #3 over Sellyn, 6-0, 7-5, Doyle lost in three sets to Campbell at #2, Higuchi beat Smith in three sets at #6, Lampl lost a third-set tiebreaker to Rosca, and Arbuthnott clinched by winning her own third-set tiebreaker over Kurtz. When Vanderbilt beat Florida the first time, they did it by getting the doubles point, and getting singles wins at 1, 2, and 6, losing or trailing at 3, 4, and 5. When they did it the second time, Vandy lost the doubles point, but got singles wins at 1, 2, 3, and 6. Yesterday, Florida won by getting the doubles point and reversing course at #1, finally beating Sharma there (Vandy still won at 2 and 3, and 6 was still ongoing when the match was decided).Â
(3) So, there are some lessons there. If you want to beat Florida, you get the doubles point. (Duh, right?) They're vulnerable at #2 and #6. We're good at #2 and #6.Â
III. THE MATCHUPS
But ultimately, looking at the individual matches, this isn't as much like UNC or Ohio State where we can reasonably envision a path to a win based on past results and guess how things might play out. No, to win, we need to pull some upsets--the Florida player is ranked higher in all doubles matches and singles matches except for #5, where both players are unranked. We can pull it off--this is Stanford women's tennis, after all--but we are by no means favored. Here are the matchups, assuming Davidson can go:
Doubles:
#1. #39 Arbuthnott/Davidson vs. #11 Anna Danilina/Ingrid Neel
#2. #46 Doyle/Lord vs. #20 Brooke Austin/Kourtney Keegan
#3. Higuchi/Lampl vs. #45 Josie Kuhlman/Belina Woolcock
So, Florida is favored at each doubles spot. Back in February, the #1 and #2 Florida pairs were swapped. Austin/Keegan beat Arbuthnott/Davidson 6-3, Kuhlman/Woolcock beat Higuchi/Lampl 6-1, and Doyle/Lord were tied 4-4 with Danilina/Neel. Hard to overstate how important the doubles point is in a match like this. It's always mathematically important, of course, as one point of the seven available. But when singles wins start looking harder to find, doubles can provide a brobdingnagian psychological boost in addition to the mathematical one.Â
Singles:
#1. #38 Doyle vs. #6 Woolcock. Doyle lost 6-1, 6-3 to Neel in February at #2.Â
#2. #28 Lord vs. #23 Kuhlman. Lord was trailing Danilina 4-1 in the third set at #3 when the match was decided.
#3. #54 Davidson vs. #31 Neel. Davidson lost to Woolcock in February at #1, but it went three sets (though Woolcock won 6-0 in the third).
#4. #90 Lampl vs. #44 Danilina. Lampl lost to Austin 7-5 in the third set at #4.Â
#5. Arbuthnott vs. Austin. Arbuthnott trailed Kuhlman 7-6, 5-4 at #5 back in February.
#6. #71 Higuchi vs. #59 Keegan. Higuchi beat Spencer Liang 6-2, 6-1 at #6, but Keegan has bumped Liang from the lineup.Â
So, it's an interesting situation where the rematch against Florida involves no individual rematches. All six players will be playing different Florida players than they played last time. Since last time didn't exactly go well for us, hopefully this lineup shuffling means our players go into the match with a clean mental slate without any baggage from the last match against Florida. But this is the toughest matchup for us. Woolcock can be beaten by a top #1, but our strength isn't at #1 this year. Their strongest courts are at 3-5, where we usually pick up a couple of points.Â
So how do we win, when the odds seem stacked against us, even if Davidson is ready to go? Well, come out firing with the doubles point, and put the Gators back on their heels. Get strong showings from Higuchi, Lord, and Arbuthnott, limit the damage to Doyle at 1, and hope Davidson and Lampl can stay in their matches. If Florida wins the doubles point, then you either need Lampl to elevate her game or for Davidson to somehow pull off yet another upset. For Taylor's sake, though, let's hope our players somehow race to quick and easy wins so she doesn't have to play another marathon match--she could use a nap!Â
(If Davidson can't go, an already daunting task starts to look grim. #6 turns from an asset to a liability, and wins at #3-#5 become somewhat less likely. But the benefit of this match continuing to be pushed back because of weather is it makes it likelier that Davidson will be available to play.)

