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Up next, as Spiny_Norman notes, is North Carolina. That match will be at 12pm ET/9am PT (so, not as bad as today, for either the players or the fans back in California), and you can follow along through the same link on the University of Georgia athletics website.Â
Some details about the teams:
* UNC is the #2 overall seed in the tournament, despite being ranked #4 in the ITA rankings. Stanford, by contrast, is the #7 seed while being ranked #6, so it's much closer than you'd expect to see from a 2-7 matchup.Â
* UNC is 33-2 on the year, while Stanford's win over Michigan gives the Cardinal a 24-2 record. Both teams lost to #1 Florida, while UNC also lost to #8 Georgia Tech and Stanford lost to #12 Pepperdine (which, by the way, is an excellent team that is better than its ranking--it dominates the weak WCC, so the Waves can't get enough quality wins to climb higher in the rankings).Â
* Common opponents: Oregon (Stanford won 7-0 and 4-0, UNC won 4-0); Texas (Stanford won 4-2, UNC won 4-0); Cal (Stanford won 4-3 and 4-1, UNC won 4-2); and Florida (Stanford lost 4-1, UNC lost 4-2). Not a ton to learn there, except to underscore that this is a close matchup.Â
* UNC cruised 4-0 today, to be sure, but some of that is an accident of timing. They won in straight sets at the top 3 courts, but Duke won the first sets at the 4, 5, and 6 courts. Duke was close to booking a win at the #4 court as UNC was serving out a 6-4, 6-4 win at #3, so if Duke could have extended that match and sent that match to a third set, all of a sudden you're looking at a 3-1 match with #3 going to a third set and Duke leading at #5 and #6. Momentum is a crazy thing in every sport, but it definitely exists in college tennis, too. Â
That reveals an interesting matchup issue. UNC is very strong at the top 3 courts, while Stanford is strong on the back courts. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see UNC win at the top 3 spots with Stanford winning the bottom 3 spots and doubles being the deciding factor.Â
The matchups:
Singles:Â
* At #1, #38 Caroline Doyle faces #2 Hayley Carter. Carter is nasty. Spiny_Norman is absolutely correct not to expect a win here.Â
* At #2, we should see a very competitive match, as #28 Lord faces #18 Sara Daavettila. Lord has been ranked as high as #8 this year, so she can absolutely do it. Lord, at her best, is the best player on the team--she found a crazy high gear in January en route to winning the Freeman Memorial Championships, where she beat four players currently in the Top 50. Sure would be nice for her to find that on Sunday!
* At #3, #54 Davidson plays #35 Jessie Aney, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Davidson dominated her. I also wouldn't be surprised if Davidson lost in straight sets. But more likely, it'll be something like today, with it going the distance after a couple of uneven sets.Â
* At #4, #90 Lampl plays #74 Alexa Graham, who was trailing 7-5, 4-1 (30-love) when her match was suspended today. This should be a very even match. But it's NCAAs, so I'm not betting against Lampl.
* At #5, Arbuthnott is unranked (which is bizarre, given how terrific she's been this year) and she plays #100 Makenna Jones. By ranking and considering the stakes, you'd expect this one to be close. That said, Arbuthnott crushed Jones 6-1, 6-3 at the Freeman Memorial Championships (a preseason tournament). The match was outside the main bracket, however, so it's not terribly predictive. A positive data point, though.Â
* At #6, #71 Higuchi plays unranked Chloe Oullet-Pizer. Anything other than a Higuchi straight sets win is now surprising to me, and no reason to think that won't continue on Sunday.Â
Basically, UNC should win at #1 and Stanford should win at #6, but the other four singles matches should be competitive.Â
Doubles:
Before that, though, we'll know how things stand in doubles:
* At #1, UNC will be favored (the duo of Carter and Aney is ranked #4, while Davidson/Arbuthnott are ranked #39)
* At #2, Doyle and Lord are ranked #46, and UNC's duo of Cassandra Vazquez (who doesn't play singles) and Graham is unranked, but UNC has shuffled its doubles lineups this year a decent amount, so they haven't really picked up enough rankings points as a team to be ranked. Vazquez played part of the year with Aney, and the points they earned together are still good enough for the #78 ranking nationally.Â
* At #3, Higuchi/Lampl vs. Jones/Daavettila. Daavettila played part of the year with Carter, and the points they earned together are still good enough for the #27 ranking nationally.Â
Thus, for Stanford to win the doubles point, we'll need wins from the #2 and #3 spots, which will be difficult but doable.Â
All in all, UNC is probably favored, but not heavily. It's not hard to envision a scenario where Stanford wins a tight doubles point, gets a quick win from Higuchi to go up 2-0, and gets two more wins somewhere from 2-5, and pulls out a 4-2 or 4-3 win.Â