[BigEasyCard]

Stanford 34

USC 21

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Stanford 34

USC 21

Geaux Cardinal!

[PalmTree]

Stanford 31
University of South Figueroa and Child's Way 24

Tree D needs to bring the wood and plenty of it....

[PalmTree]

Stanford 31
University of South Figueroa and Child's Way 24

Tree D needs to bring the wood and plenty of it....

[Brannerite]

Stanford 31
University Sans Control 20

[Brannerite]

Stanford 31
University Sans Control 20

[Red State]

SU 24-13

[Red State]

SU 24-13

[shinsengumi]

Stanford 24
SC 20

[shinsengumi]

Stanford 24
SC 20

[CTcard]

Almost forgot,

Might Trees 24
Evil Empire 13

Renewed grumbling about a sluggish offense ensues.

[CTcard]

Almost forgot,

Might Trees 24
Evil Empire 13

Renewed grumbling about a sluggish offense ensues.

[61_Shasta]

Wear 'em down, we have them next Friday!

[61_Shasta]

Wear 'em down, we have them next Friday!

[thunder_chik]

Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

[thunder_chik]

Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

[washingtonismoney]

Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

To be fair, SC's offensive numbers should've led to more points. They just fizzled on third downs and in the redzone.

[washingtonismoney]

Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

To be fair, SC's offensive numbers should've led to more points. They just fizzled on third downs and in the redzone.

[martyup]

Stanford 28, University of Seventh Choice 10

Congrats HKWD.  Nearly nailed it.  Our defense outplayed Cardboard expectations.  Luv it. 8)

[martyup]

Stanford 28, University of Seventh Choice 10

Congrats HKWD.  Nearly nailed it.  Our defense outplayed Cardboard expectations.  Luv it. 8)

[82 Card]

Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

Should have paid more attention to Hank's SC blogger. She nailed the SC score.

[82 Card]

Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

Should have paid more attention to Hank's SC blogger. She nailed the SC score.

[stupac2]

[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=15637.msg171598#msg171598 date=1474169805]
Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

To be fair, SC's offensive numbers should've led to more points. They just fizzled on third downs and in the redzone.
[/quote]

I noticed that too, the offensive production numbers were pretty similar for both of us. I don't think we had a ton of hidden yards, but I'd have to check field position stats which will have to wait for tomorrow. Though I think they handily won the penalty yardage "battle", how many false starts did they get, 5? That doesn't help.

[stupac2]

[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=15637.msg171598#msg171598 date=1474169805]
Interesting that most of us overestimated the U $C point total.

To be fair, SC's offensive numbers should've led to more points. They just fizzled on third downs and in the redzone.
[/quote]

I noticed that too, the offensive production numbers were pretty similar for both of us. I don't think we had a ton of hidden yards, but I'd have to check field position stats which will have to wait for tomorrow. Though I think they handily won the penalty yardage "battle", how many false starts did they get, 5? That doesn't help.

[Hurlburt88]

I am pleased that I nailed our score, but yes I way over-estimated their ability to score on us.  Congrats to our defense and in particular our pass defense! 

[Hurlburt88]

I am pleased that I nailed our score, but yes I way over-estimated their ability to score on us.  Congrats to our defense and in particular our pass defense! 

[BostonCard]

Member	Stanford	SoCal	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Points	Bonus	Final tally
HisKneeWasDown	28	10	18	1	1.5	75	0	75
eric	24	7	17	6	3	74	0	74
el arbol	31	14	17	8	4	73	0	73
Bruce Feldman	27	13	14	3	4.5	72	0	72
Opposing Blogger	24	10	14	3	4.5	72	0	72
Red State	24	13	11	6	6	70	0	70
CTcard	24	13	11	6	6	70	0	70
Sonof80sCard	34	17	17	14	7	68	0	68
Hank 91	34	17	17	14	7	68	0	68
cardfan77	34	17	17	14	7	68	0	68
Hulk01	30	16	14	9	7.5	65	0	65
Snorlax94	23	13	10	7	7.5	65	0	65
indiancardinal	34	16	18	13	7.5	65	0	65
JJJ	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
PrinceLightfoot	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
dabigv	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
Card Fan in OR	35	17	18	15	8.5	62	0	62
Extra Point	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
washingtonismoney	27	16	11	6	9	57	0	57
standfan	30	17	13	10	9	57	0	57
pefloresjr	30	17	13	10	9	57	0	57
SamAtoms1980	36	17	19	16	10	54	0	54
Rennaisance Man	27	17	10	7	10.5	53	0	53
81alum	27	17	10	7	10.5	53	0	53
Boston Card	28	18	10	9	11.5	51	0	51
winflop	34	20	14	17	11.5	51	0	51
ColoradoTree	38	20	18	21	11.5	51	0	51
Trevmiesterj	34	20	14	17	11.5	51	0	51
Griffin78	37	21	16	21	11.5	51	0	51
Mick	23	17	6	11	12.5	46	0	46
SeattleTree	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
murky	38	17	21	18	13	45	0	45
TreesAndBirds	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
thunder_chik	34	21	13	18	13	45	0	45
Robber Baron 83	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
FarmBoy	38	17	21	18	13	45	0	45
Brannerite	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
2 for 2028	30	20	10	13	13.5	38	0	38
CornFed	41	24	17	28	14	37	0	37
CompSci87	31	21	10	15	14.5	36	0	36
Publius	28	20	8	11	14.5	36	0	36
CPSteeple	28	20	8	11	14.5	36	0	36
Kyle Bonagura	31	21	10	15	14.5	36	0	36
DC 86	31	21	10	15	14.5	36	0	36
Sea Loon	27	20	7	10	15	31	0	31
Papa John	38	13	25	14	15	31	0	31
Durty Nelly	27	20	7	10	15	31	0	31
vataha	27	20	7	10	15	31	0	31
martyup	30	21	9	14	15	31	0	31
Stymie	42	24	18	29	15.5	26	0	26
pcgoode	38	24	14	25	15.5	26	0	26
Las Vegas Spread	31	22	9	16	16	24	0	24
FarmDad.01	38	10	28	11	16.5	23	0	23
Kevin Gemmell	27	21	6	11	16.5	23	0	23
Ted Miller	24	20	4	13	16.5	23	0	23
shinsengumi	24	20	4	13	16.5	23	0	23
David Lombardi	35	24	11	22	17	19	0	19
Row80Critic	31	23	8	17	17.5	18	0	18
Mick	31	23	8	17	17.5	18	0	18
akiddoc	13	3	10	21	17.5	18	0	18
Big Brother	33	24	9	20	18	15	0	15
PalmTree	31	24	7	18	19	14	0	14
needle	30	24	6	17	19.5	13	0	13
amartinsu13	38	27	11	28	20	12	0	12

[BostonCard]

Member	Stanford	SoCal	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Points	Bonus	Final tally
HisKneeWasDown	28	10	18	1	1.5	75	0	75
eric	24	7	17	6	3	74	0	74
el arbol	31	14	17	8	4	73	0	73
Bruce Feldman	27	13	14	3	4.5	72	0	72
Opposing Blogger	24	10	14	3	4.5	72	0	72
Red State	24	13	11	6	6	70	0	70
CTcard	24	13	11	6	6	70	0	70
Sonof80sCard	34	17	17	14	7	68	0	68
Hank 91	34	17	17	14	7	68	0	68
cardfan77	34	17	17	14	7	68	0	68
Hulk01	30	16	14	9	7.5	65	0	65
Snorlax94	23	13	10	7	7.5	65	0	65
indiancardinal	34	16	18	13	7.5	65	0	65
JJJ	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
PrinceLightfoot	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
dabigv	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
Card Fan in OR	35	17	18	15	8.5	62	0	62
Extra Point	31	17	14	11	8.5	62	0	62
washingtonismoney	27	16	11	6	9	57	0	57
standfan	30	17	13	10	9	57	0	57
pefloresjr	30	17	13	10	9	57	0	57
SamAtoms1980	36	17	19	16	10	54	0	54
Rennaisance Man	27	17	10	7	10.5	53	0	53
81alum	27	17	10	7	10.5	53	0	53
Boston Card	28	18	10	9	11.5	51	0	51
winflop	34	20	14	17	11.5	51	0	51
ColoradoTree	38	20	18	21	11.5	51	0	51
Trevmiesterj	34	20	14	17	11.5	51	0	51
Griffin78	37	21	16	21	11.5	51	0	51
Mick	23	17	6	11	12.5	46	0	46
SeattleTree	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
murky	38	17	21	18	13	45	0	45
TreesAndBirds	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
thunder_chik	34	21	13	18	13	45	0	45
Robber Baron 83	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
FarmBoy	38	17	21	18	13	45	0	45
Brannerite	31	20	11	14	13	45	0	45
2 for 2028	30	20	10	13	13.5	38	0	38
CornFed	41	24	17	28	14	37	0	37
CompSci87	31	21	10	15	14.5	36	0	36
Publius	28	20	8	11	14.5	36	0	36
CPSteeple	28	20	8	11	14.5	36	0	36
Kyle Bonagura	31	21	10	15	14.5	36	0	36
DC 86	31	21	10	15	14.5	36	0	36
Sea Loon	27	20	7	10	15	31	0	31
Papa John	38	13	25	14	15	31	0	31
Durty Nelly	27	20	7	10	15	31	0	31
vataha	27	20	7	10	15	31	0	31
martyup	30	21	9	14	15	31	0	31
Stymie	42	24	18	29	15.5	26	0	26
pcgoode	38	24	14	25	15.5	26	0	26
Las Vegas Spread	31	22	9	16	16	24	0	24
FarmDad.01	38	10	28	11	16.5	23	0	23
Kevin Gemmell	27	21	6	11	16.5	23	0	23
Ted Miller	24	20	4	13	16.5	23	0	23
shinsengumi	24	20	4	13	16.5	23	0	23
David Lombardi	35	24	11	22	17	19	0	19
Row80Critic	31	23	8	17	17.5	18	0	18
Mick	31	23	8	17	17.5	18	0	18
akiddoc	13	3	10	21	17.5	18	0	18
Big Brother	33	24	9	20	18	15	0	15
PalmTree	31	24	7	18	19	14	0	14
needle	30	24	6	17	19.5	13	0	13
amartinsu13	38	27	11	28	20	12	0	12

[BostonCard]

continued:

Member	Stanford	SoCal	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Points	Bonus	Final tally
Chantel Jennings	28	24	4	15	20.5	11	0	11
hurlburt88	27	24	3	14	21	10	0	10
fullmetal	42	13	29	18	21	10	0	10
RobinsonsHeave	31	27	4	21	23.5	8	0	8
MSmith23	30	27	3	20	24	7	0	7
leftcoast	31	28	3	22	25	6	0	6
SUBuddha	46	16	30	25	25.5	5	0	5
Bill Connelly	33	30	3	26	27	4	0	4
GoodGrief	48	13	35	24	30	3	0	3
HisKneeWasDown	55	17	38	35	38.5	2	0	2
CrazedZooChimp	55	6	49	32	44	1	0	1
Median	31	20	11	14	13
Average	31.9	18.6	13.1	13.5	10.4	CORRECT	INCORRECT
Actual Scores	27	10	17			75	0

[BostonCard]

continued:

Member	Stanford	SoCal	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Points	Bonus	Final tally
Chantel Jennings	28	24	4	15	20.5	11	0	11
hurlburt88	27	24	3	14	21	10	0	10
fullmetal	42	13	29	18	21	10	0	10
RobinsonsHeave	31	27	4	21	23.5	8	0	8
MSmith23	30	27	3	20	24	7	0	7
leftcoast	31	28	3	22	25	6	0	6
SUBuddha	46	16	30	25	25.5	5	0	5
Bill Connelly	33	30	3	26	27	4	0	4
GoodGrief	48	13	35	24	30	3	0	3
HisKneeWasDown	55	17	38	35	38.5	2	0	2
CrazedZooChimp	55	6	49	32	44	1	0	1
Median	31	20	11	14	13
Average	31.9	18.6	13.1	13.5	10.4	CORRECT	INCORRECT
Actual Scores	27	10	17			75	0

[BostonCard]

Hiskneewasdown would have won, missing the score by only one point, but he actually put in two predictions 28-10 and 55-17.  Not sure how to deal with that... So I congratulations to eric, whose 24-7 prediction nailed the 17 point spread, but was off by a field goal on mean score.  Somehow we survived the game without Teejers making an offering to the woofing gods, which means that I think for the first time since I've done this, 75 people picked the correct winner, and nobody, not even the opposing blogger (whose 24-10 prediction was pretty darned good), picked the wrong winner.

BC

[BostonCard]

Hiskneewasdown would have won, missing the score by only one point, but he actually put in two predictions 28-10 and 55-17.  Not sure how to deal with that... So I congratulations to eric, whose 24-7 prediction nailed the 17 point spread, but was off by a field goal on mean score.  Somehow we survived the game without Teejers making an offering to the woofing gods, which means that I think for the first time since I've done this, 75 people picked the correct winner, and nobody, not even the opposing blogger (whose 24-10 prediction was pretty darned good), picked the wrong winner.

BC

[82lsju]

Hiskneewasdown would have won, missing the score by only one point, but he actually put in two predictions 28-10 and 55-17.  Not sure how to deal with that...

BC

I think the 28-10 prediction was the "real prediction", 55-17 was looking to improve on the 2009 game.

[82lsju]

Hiskneewasdown would have won, missing the score by only one point, but he actually put in two predictions 28-10 and 55-17.  Not sure how to deal with that...

BC

I think the 28-10 prediction was the "real prediction", 55-17 was looking to improve on the 2009 game.

[HisKneeWasDown]

Hiskneewasdown would have won, missing the score by only one point, but he actually put in two predictions 28-10 and 55-17.  Not sure how to deal with that...
BC

Uh, oops. To be completely honest, I forgot I did the first one; I only remember my 55-17.

I'd propose a rule that the last entry is the final entry (just in case another idiot does what I did :-)

[HisKneeWasDown]

Hiskneewasdown would have won, missing the score by only one point, but he actually put in two predictions 28-10 and 55-17.  Not sure how to deal with that...
BC

Uh, oops. To be completely honest, I forgot I did the first one; I only remember my 55-17.

I'd propose a rule that the last entry is the final entry (just in case another idiot does what I did :-)

[PrinceLightfoot]

Hey BC,

Those who predicted a 34-17 ranked higher than those who predicted 31-17 who ranked higher than those who predicted 30-17.

Final score 27-10. 

I know this is just for fun, but using the final spread as the primary driver for rank ordering seems faulty given the results above. This becomes an exercise in predicting ANY score with the correct spread instead of predicting the final score. An easy fix would be to rank by absolute error first, then by the spread+mean error second so that those with the same absolute error are ranked appropriately. I think this has been discussed before and it is no biggie if it remains unchanged. I am just thankful you are providing your time to put this together for all of us.

[PrinceLightfoot]

Hey BC,

Those who predicted a 34-17 ranked higher than those who predicted 31-17 who ranked higher than those who predicted 30-17.

Final score 27-10. 

I know this is just for fun, but using the final spread as the primary driver for rank ordering seems faulty given the results above. This becomes an exercise in predicting ANY score with the correct spread instead of predicting the final score. An easy fix would be to rank by absolute error first, then by the spread+mean error second so that those with the same absolute error are ranked appropriately. I think this has been discussed before and it is no biggie if it remains unchanged. I am just thankful you are providing your time to put this together for all of us.

[BostonCard]

Well, I did offer a money-back satisfaction guarantee when I set this up, so I'm happy to offer you a refund ;)

In a more serious vein, I set up the rules in advance, and I am loth to switch them midway.  When Gauss ran the contest, he did go with absolute error, but given the importance of margin of victory and spread in Vegas, I wanted to make that part of the equation.  Moreover, there is still an advantage to getting close on the actual score, since the difference in mean score is also counted.  Thus, with the 27-10 final score, someone who guessed 28-11 is at an advantage to someone who guessed 35-18, even though they both got the margin correct.  Indeed, someone who guesses 28-9 and is thus two points off on the margin but guessed the mean correctly will score better than the person who guessed 35-18 (who nails the 17-point margin but misses the mean by 8 points). And of course, there is the 10 point bonus for anyone who guesses the exact score.

How about we revisit this a few weeks before next season, and if people feel strongly, I will change next year's contest back to absolute error.

BC

[BostonCard]

Well, I did offer a money-back satisfaction guarantee when I set this up, so I'm happy to offer you a refund ;)

In a more serious vein, I set up the rules in advance, and I am loth to switch them midway.  When Gauss ran the contest, he did go with absolute error, but given the importance of margin of victory and spread in Vegas, I wanted to make that part of the equation.  Moreover, there is still an advantage to getting close on the actual score, since the difference in mean score is also counted.  Thus, with the 27-10 final score, someone who guessed 28-11 is at an advantage to someone who guessed 35-18, even though they both got the margin correct.  Indeed, someone who guesses 28-9 and is thus two points off on the margin but guessed the mean correctly will score better than the person who guessed 35-18 (who nails the 17-point margin but misses the mean by 8 points). And of course, there is the 10 point bonus for anyone who guesses the exact score.

How about we revisit this a few weeks before next season, and if people feel strongly, I will change next year's contest back to absolute error.

BC