10-17-2015, 05:01 PM
Rooting for SC here. They're so hapless it's hard to really hate them. ND is just pure filth. Also, SC win is better for our SOS.
Week 7 in opponents
10-17-2015, 05:02 PM
(10-17-2015, 05:01 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Also, SC win is better for our SOS.
I don't really think it matters much, since we play both teams. I'm not a SOS expert though.
(10-17-2015, 05:01 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Also, SC win is better for our SOS.
I don't really think it matters much, since we play both teams. I'm not a SOS expert though.
10-17-2015, 05:04 PM
Yup but it goes out two levels. SC plays more of the other teams we play, so if they have a better record it's good for our SOS.
10-17-2015, 05:08 PM
(10-17-2015, 05:04 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Yup but it goes out two levels. SC plays more of the other teams we play, so if they have a better record it's good for our SOS.
True, not a massive difference, but still a difference. But does SOS matter as much as the eye-test with the committee? (I honestly have no idea.)
(10-17-2015, 05:04 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Yup but it goes out two levels. SC plays more of the other teams we play, so if they have a better record it's good for our SOS.
True, not a massive difference, but still a difference. But does SOS matter as much as the eye-test with the committee? (I honestly have no idea.)
10-17-2015, 05:10 PM
(10-17-2015, 05:08 PM)French Rage link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13220.msg135342#msg135342 date=1445126674]
Yup but it goes out two levels. SC plays more of the other teams we play, so if they have a better record it's good for our SOS.
True, not a massive difference, but still a difference. But does SOS matter as much as the eye-test with the committee? (I honestly have no idea.)
[/quote]
I'm of the belief that a perhaps top-10 ND team presents a better resume building opportunity for us than SC salvaging their season. Obviously nobody knows the mentality of the committee though.
(10-17-2015, 05:08 PM)French Rage link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13220.msg135342#msg135342 date=1445126674]
Yup but it goes out two levels. SC plays more of the other teams we play, so if they have a better record it's good for our SOS.
True, not a massive difference, but still a difference. But does SOS matter as much as the eye-test with the committee? (I honestly have no idea.)
[/quote]
I'm of the belief that a perhaps top-10 ND team presents a better resume building opportunity for us than SC salvaging their season. Obviously nobody knows the mentality of the committee though.
10-17-2015, 05:23 PM
RESUME DOESN'T MATTER. Seriously, if we're 12-1 we're in. If we're N-2 we're not. It doesn't matter what else happens.
USC is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Cal in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for USC sucks, but we want them to win.
USC is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Cal in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for USC sucks, but we want them to win.
RESUME DOESN'T MATTER. Seriously, if we're 12-1 we're in. If we're N-2 we're not. It doesn't matter what else happens.
USC is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Cal in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for USC sucks, but we want them to win.
USC is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Cal in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for USC sucks, but we want them to win.
10-17-2015, 05:37 PM
I wouldn't say resume *doesn't* matter, but it certainly matters much less than record.
I wouldn't say resume *doesn't* matter, but it certainly matters much less than record.
10-17-2015, 05:38 PM
(10-17-2015, 05:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:RESUME DOESN'T MATTER. Seriously, if we're 12-1 we're in. If we're N-2 we're not. It doesn't matter what else happens.
Under Stanford Control is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Low APR U in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for Under Stanford Control sucks, but we want them to win.
It would depend on the records. They way I see it, it goes (undefeated teams) > (1-loss conference champion) > (other 1 loss teams). If all of the other conferences get an undefeated team through, that would be bad. Maybe based on exactly who those teams are and how their resumes look, a 1-loss us (if it happens) squeezes past, but I would hope we don't have to rely on squeezing. So the first thing to hope for is for undefeateds to lose. Then to hope 1-loss teams are from Big12 and ACC, since a 1-loss Pac12 team would have to outrank a 1-loss Big12 or ACC. With the B1G and SEC it would depend on who the teams are.
(I will admit I'm pulling some of this out of my ass but I would think it holds that way. FSU makes it in last year because they are undefeated and from a Power 5. If you run the table you're in no questions asked. Then 1-loss Pac12, B1G, and SEC teams make it in, especially since they are conference champs. TCU and Baylor were left out by the weakness of the conference, and the lack of an extra championship game, but I'd think if either was undefeated they knock off one of the 1-loss conference champs.)
(10-17-2015, 05:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:RESUME DOESN'T MATTER. Seriously, if we're 12-1 we're in. If we're N-2 we're not. It doesn't matter what else happens.
Under Stanford Control is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Low APR U in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for Under Stanford Control sucks, but we want them to win.
It would depend on the records. They way I see it, it goes (undefeated teams) > (1-loss conference champion) > (other 1 loss teams). If all of the other conferences get an undefeated team through, that would be bad. Maybe based on exactly who those teams are and how their resumes look, a 1-loss us (if it happens) squeezes past, but I would hope we don't have to rely on squeezing. So the first thing to hope for is for undefeateds to lose. Then to hope 1-loss teams are from Big12 and ACC, since a 1-loss Pac12 team would have to outrank a 1-loss Big12 or ACC. With the B1G and SEC it would depend on who the teams are.
(I will admit I'm pulling some of this out of my ass but I would think it holds that way. FSU makes it in last year because they are undefeated and from a Power 5. If you run the table you're in no questions asked. Then 1-loss Pac12, B1G, and SEC teams make it in, especially since they are conference champs. TCU and Baylor were left out by the weakness of the conference, and the lack of an extra championship game, but I'd think if either was undefeated they knock off one of the 1-loss conference champs.)
10-17-2015, 05:40 PM
(10-17-2015, 05:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:RESUME DOESN'T MATTER. Seriously, if we're 12-1 we're in. If we're N-2 we're not. It doesn't matter what else happens.
Under Stanford Control is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Low APR U in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for Under Stanford Control sucks, but we want them to win.
This is almost certainly true (certainly the latter portion). The biggest thing we have to do is continue to win. Given that we are playing 9 Pac-12 games, and OOC games against Notre Dame and Northwestern, our strength of schedule isn't going to be materially affected by the outcome of the game (especially since we play both opponents). So, I default to which one hurts our opponents more; since USC is in turmoil already losing this game doesn't change anything. OTOH, a loss by Notre Dame eliminates them from playoff contention.
Sadly, aside from that first drive, though, it has been all Notre Dame. SC is lucky it's not 28-7.
BC
(10-17-2015, 05:23 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:RESUME DOESN'T MATTER. Seriously, if we're 12-1 we're in. If we're N-2 we're not. It doesn't matter what else happens.
Under Stanford Control is already out of the playoff hunt, ND isn't. ND being in the playoff is the worst possible outcome of any season (except perhaps Low APR U in the playoff), so you ALWAYS root against them. Especially if the opponent is already out.
Rooting for Under Stanford Control sucks, but we want them to win.
This is almost certainly true (certainly the latter portion). The biggest thing we have to do is continue to win. Given that we are playing 9 Pac-12 games, and OOC games against Notre Dame and Northwestern, our strength of schedule isn't going to be materially affected by the outcome of the game (especially since we play both opponents). So, I default to which one hurts our opponents more; since USC is in turmoil already losing this game doesn't change anything. OTOH, a loss by Notre Dame eliminates them from playoff contention.
Sadly, aside from that first drive, though, it has been all Notre Dame. SC is lucky it's not 28-7.
BC
10-17-2015, 05:45 PM
N.D. OL Alex Bars is down. Bars is second-string at his position, backup to OL Quenton Nelson. (both, incidentally, were Stanford recruits.)
N.D. OL Alex Bars is down. Bars is second-string at his position, backup to OL Quenton Nelson. (both, incidentally, were Stanford recruits.)
10-17-2015, 05:48 PM
(10-17-2015, 05:37 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:I wouldn't say resume *doesn't* matter, but it certainly matters much less than record.
Well sure, some team's resumes matter. But if we take our goal as making the playoff, then you have these facts:
1) The only contenders are the Power 5 winners and ND.
2) The contenders will basically be sorted by losses (meaning it's highly unlikely that a team with N losses is bumped by a team with N+1 losses).
3) Ties go to the better conference.
4) Close calls after that defer to OOC resume.
(It's certainly possible that this is wrong, since we're only working off of 1 year of data and we're talking about a bunch of people making a decision it's hardly scientific, but given the way people's perception of CFB works and given that, according to reporting last year, the committee doesn't really use advanced stats, the above is probably right.)
Given all that the number of scenarios where beating 10-1 ND matter are vanishingly small, especially because 9-2 ND still gives us a ton of credit while (probably) keeping them out of the playoff. And when you factor in ND being our main recruiting competitor, we want them to be as bad as possible.
Plus ND is by far the most annoying program in college football. I find it utterly incomprehensible that anyone could ever root for them in any circumstances.
(10-17-2015, 05:37 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:I wouldn't say resume *doesn't* matter, but it certainly matters much less than record.
Well sure, some team's resumes matter. But if we take our goal as making the playoff, then you have these facts:
1) The only contenders are the Power 5 winners and ND.
2) The contenders will basically be sorted by losses (meaning it's highly unlikely that a team with N losses is bumped by a team with N+1 losses).
3) Ties go to the better conference.
4) Close calls after that defer to OOC resume.
(It's certainly possible that this is wrong, since we're only working off of 1 year of data and we're talking about a bunch of people making a decision it's hardly scientific, but given the way people's perception of CFB works and given that, according to reporting last year, the committee doesn't really use advanced stats, the above is probably right.)
Given all that the number of scenarios where beating 10-1 ND matter are vanishingly small, especially because 9-2 ND still gives us a ton of credit while (probably) keeping them out of the playoff. And when you factor in ND being our main recruiting competitor, we want them to be as bad as possible.
Plus ND is by far the most annoying program in college football. I find it utterly incomprehensible that anyone could ever root for them in any circumstances.
10-17-2015, 05:52 PM
Speaking of former Stanford recruits, Equanimeous St. Brown blocked a punt, that was then returned by Amir Carlisle for a touchdown.
Both were Stanford recruits (and Carlisle I believe had committed to us at one point).
BC
Both were Stanford recruits (and Carlisle I believe had committed to us at one point).
BC
Speaking of former Stanford recruits, Equanimeous St. Brown blocked a punt, that was then returned by Amir Carlisle for a touchdown.
Both were Stanford recruits (and Carlisle I believe had committed to us at one point).
BC
Both were Stanford recruits (and Carlisle I believe had committed to us at one point).
BC
More trickeration. USC scores on a wide receiver pass to Juju Smith.
BC
BC
10-17-2015, 06:00 PM
Nice to have a left handed, former QB to throw that pass
Eric
"the older we get the better we were"
10-17-2015, 06:01 PM
Also nice to have a former second team all-state high school punter at QB to quick-kick.
BC
BC
Also nice to have a former second team all-state high school punter at QB to quick-kick.
BC
BC
10-17-2015, 06:04 PM
Wow... USC is explosive. It's hard to believe they lost to us, let alone to UW.
BC
BC
Wow... USC is explosive. It's hard to believe they lost to us, let alone to UW.
BC
BC
10-17-2015, 06:05 PM
(10-17-2015, 06:04 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Wow... Under Stanford Control is explosive. It's hard to believe they lost to us, let alone to UW.
BC
That was my thought too. He was gone before he'd even gotten the first down. Pretty incredible.
"hard to believe for us too" -- many computer systems (which love them)
10-17-2015, 06:15 PM
Anyway, as explosive as they are offensively, their losses can be attributed to:
1) a massive strategic misfire plus turnover problems (UW); if they just run the dang ball they probably win by a touchdown, even with turnovers.
2) a precise Stanford offense plus a defense that did *just enough*. Also N.D. appears unable to deal with Kessler's chronic inability to complete passes beyond like ten yards.
1) a massive strategic misfire plus turnover problems (UW); if they just run the dang ball they probably win by a touchdown, even with turnovers.
2) a precise Stanford offense plus a defense that did *just enough*. Also N.D. appears unable to deal with Kessler's chronic inability to complete passes beyond like ten yards.
Anyway, as explosive as they are offensively, their losses can be attributed to:
1) a massive strategic misfire plus turnover problems (UW); if they just run the dang ball they probably win by a touchdown, even with turnovers.
2) a precise Stanford offense plus a defense that did *just enough*. Also N.D. appears unable to deal with Kessler's chronic inability to complete passes beyond like ten yards.
1) a massive strategic misfire plus turnover problems (UW); if they just run the dang ball they probably win by a touchdown, even with turnovers.
2) a precise Stanford offense plus a defense that did *just enough*. Also N.D. appears unable to deal with Kessler's chronic inability to complete passes beyond like ten yards.
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