[French Rage]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11018.msg103847#msg103847 date=1414599749]
[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=11018.msg103846#msg103846 date=1414599591]
Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game.  With that, the average is 9.0

Of over 65 yards: 5.5

Of over 75 yards: 0.9

Of under 15 yards: 2.1

No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!

Your numbers seem to indicate that we want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yardline.
[Okay, or within their 25.]
[/quote]

Well, you don't know how many opportunities our opposition had from that distance.  Opponents have had the ball within their own 20 to start a drive (allowing for a drive of over 80 yards) 38 times, and between their 20 and 40 45 times.  In contrast, they have started their drives within our 20 yard line only twice.

On a points per drive metric, here is the breakdown:
Starting      drives    Points per drive
opp 0 - 20        38          0.42
opp 20 - 40      45          1.13
40 - 40            6          0
Stan 40 - 20    5          1.2
Stan 20 - 0      2          7

A linear regression suggests that for every yard of starting position we give up, the opponent gains 0.03 points, though the effect is non-linear, and increases dramatically as the opponent approaches our side of the field.  On average, our opponents get 0.9 point per possession, so arguably pushing them back 30 yards by punting is worth it from a defensive perspective (though note that by punting, we are giving up a chance to score).

BC
[/quote]

So we should always give them the ball at midfield.

[French Rage]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11018.msg103847#msg103847 date=1414599749]
[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=11018.msg103846#msg103846 date=1414599591]
Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game.  With that, the average is 9.0

Of over 65 yards: 5.5

Of over 75 yards: 0.9

Of under 15 yards: 2.1

No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!

Your numbers seem to indicate that we want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yardline.
[Okay, or within their 25.]
[/quote]

Well, you don't know how many opportunities our opposition had from that distance.  Opponents have had the ball within their own 20 to start a drive (allowing for a drive of over 80 yards) 38 times, and between their 20 and 40 45 times.  In contrast, they have started their drives within our 20 yard line only twice.

On a points per drive metric, here is the breakdown:
Starting      drives    Points per drive
opp 0 - 20        38          0.42
opp 20 - 40      45          1.13
40 - 40            6          0
Stan 40 - 20    5          1.2
Stan 20 - 0      2          7

A linear regression suggests that for every yard of starting position we give up, the opponent gains 0.03 points, though the effect is non-linear, and increases dramatically as the opponent approaches our side of the field.  On average, our opponents get 0.9 point per possession, so arguably pushing them back 30 yards by punting is worth it from a defensive perspective (though note that by punting, we are giving up a chance to score).

BC
[/quote]

So we should always give them the ball at midfield.