Try this number - Printable Version
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Try this number - Hulk01 - 10-29-2014
Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game. With that, the average is 9.0
Of over 65 yards: 5.5
Of over 75 yards: 0.9
Of under 15 yards: 2.1
No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!
Re: Try this number - CTcard - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 09:19 AM)Hulk01 link Wrote:Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game. With that, the average is 9.0
Of over 65 yards: 5.5
Of over 75 yards: 0.9
Of under 15 yards: 2.1
No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!
Your numbers seem to indicate that we want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yardline.
[Okay, or within their 25.]
Re: Try this number - OutsiderFan - 10-29-2014
These numbers are yet more statistical evidence of how silly it is to kick FGs and punt so much.
Case in point, UC the last two weeks before halftime:
UCLA: UC has ball at midfield, punts, and downs ball inside the UCLA 5. In less than a minute, UCLA scores a TD with 13 secs left. UC has no chance to score its own points again before half.
Oregon: UC has ball 4th and 2 from its own 30 or so and punts. Two plays later, Oregon is scrimmaging from where UC punted, and scored a TD with 33 secs left. UC moves ball to Oregon 40 before half, but fails to score again before half.
In both cases, had UC gone for it, they would have either:
A. Made a first down and scored points before half
B. Made a first down, not scored points before half, but kept the opponent from scoring more before half
C. Failed to get the first down, but allowed the opponent to score faster so UC could have also had a shot at more points before half
All three of these outcomes were better than the actual outcome that came as a result of punting. The decision to punt arguably cost UC the UCLA game.Â
Re: Try this number - stupac2 - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 10:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:These numbers are yet more statistical evidence of how silly it is to kick FGs and punt so much.
Case in point, UC the last two weeks before halftime:
UCLA: UC has ball at midfield, punts, and downs ball inside the UCLA 5. In less than a minute, UCLA scores a TD with 13 secs left. UC has no chance to score its own points again before half.
Oregon: UC has ball 4th and 2 from its own 30 or so and punts. Two plays later, Oregon is scrimmaging from where UC punted, and scored a TD with 33 secs left. UC moves ball to Oregon 40 before half, but fails to score again before half.
In both cases, had UC gone for it, they would have either:
A. Made a first down and scored points before half
B. Made a first down, not scored points before half, but kept the opponent from scoring more before half
C. Failed to get the first down, but allowed the opponent to score faster so UC could have also had a shot at more points before half
All three of these outcomes were better than the actual outcome that came as a result of punting. The decision to punt arguably cost UC the UCLA game.
Well, that's when you have a terrible defense. I'd be fine with Stanford punting in situations like those, although it depends on what the yardage was at the 50.
Re: Try this number - BostonCard - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 09:22 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=11018.msg103846#msg103846 date=1414599591]
Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game. With that, the average is 9.0
Of over 65 yards: 5.5
Of over 75 yards: 0.9
Of under 15 yards: 2.1
No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!
Your numbers seem to indicate that we want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yardline.
[Okay, or within their 25.]
[/quote]
Well, you don't know how many opportunities our opposition had from that distance. Opponents have had the ball within their own 20 to start a drive (allowing for a drive of over 80 yards) 38 times, and between their 20 and 40 45 times. In contrast, they have started their drives within our 20 yard line only twice.
On a points per drive metric, here is the breakdown:
Starting   drives  Points per drive
opp 0 - 20Â Â Â Â 38Â Â Â Â Â 0.42
opp 20 - 40Â Â Â 45Â Â Â Â Â 1.13
40 - 40Â Â Â Â Â Â 6Â Â Â Â Â 0
Stan 40 - 20Â Â 5Â Â Â Â Â 1.2
Stan 20 - 0Â Â Â 2Â Â Â Â Â 7
A linear regression suggests that for every yard of starting position we give up, the opponent gains 0.03 points, though the effect is non-linear, and increases dramatically as the opponent approaches our side of the field. On average, our opponents get 0.9 point per possession, so arguably pushing them back 30 yards by punting is worth it from a defensive perspective (though note that by punting, we are giving up a chance to score).
BC
Re: Try this number - CTcard - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 12:35 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11018.msg103847#msg103847 date=1414599749]
[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=11018.msg103846#msg103846 date=1414599591]
Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game. With that, the average is 9.0
Of over 65 yards: 5.5
Of over 75 yards: 0.9
Of under 15 yards: 2.1
No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!
Your numbers seem to indicate that we want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yardline.
[Okay, or within their 25.]
[/quote]
Well, you don't know how many opportunities our opposition had from that distance.Â
On a points per drive metric, here is the breakdown:
Starting   drives  Points per drive
Stan 20 - 0Â Â Â 2Â Â Â Â Â 7
[/quote]
1. It was a joke.
I assumed it was obvious we don't really want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yard line.
2. I did indeed miss that Hulk was reporting pts/gm rather than pts/drive (which seems more natural).
Still, your numbers don't seem compatible with Hulk's.
[7 points on drives within the 20 means no more than 7 on drives within the 15 (exactly 7 as the beavs scored on a drive starting at the 5), which would lead to 7/8=0.88 pts/gm allowed on drives starting within our 15.]
But it doesn't really matter because ...
3. It was a joke.
Re: Try this number - BostonCard - 10-29-2014
Here's what I got for drives starting within our 20:
 Team Start Plays Yards Points
ASUÂ Â 88Â Â 4Â Â 12Â Â Â 7
OSUÂ Â 95Â Â 1Â Â 5Â Â Â 7
Note, I took the data from ESPN's drive charts, and they are not perfect. They were missing some data from the Davis game, and got at least one of the drives in the ASU game wrong. But, we have had two drives start within our 15, against ASU at our 12, and against OSU on our 5. Both resulted in touchdowns.
BC
Re: Try this number - French Rage - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 12:35 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=CTcard link=topic=11018.msg103847#msg103847 date=1414599749]
[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=11018.msg103846#msg103846 date=1414599591]
Points allowed per game on drives of over 50 yards, Stanford 2014: 8.1
(This excludes the garbage time drive allowed by our second team in last week's game. With that, the average is 9.0
Of over 65 yards: 5.5
Of over 75 yards: 0.9
Of under 15 yards: 2.1
No wonder people talk about the importance of field positon!
Your numbers seem to indicate that we want to give our opponents the ball within our 15 yardline.
[Okay, or within their 25.]
[/quote]
Well, you don't know how many opportunities our opposition had from that distance. Opponents have had the ball within their own 20 to start a drive (allowing for a drive of over 80 yards) 38 times, and between their 20 and 40 45 times. In contrast, they have started their drives within our 20 yard line only twice.
On a points per drive metric, here is the breakdown:
Starting   drives  Points per drive
opp 0 - 20Â Â Â Â 38Â Â Â Â Â 0.42
opp 20 - 40Â Â Â 45Â Â Â Â Â 1.13
40 - 40Â Â Â Â Â Â 6Â Â Â Â Â 0
Stan 40 - 20Â Â 5Â Â Â Â Â 1.2
Stan 20 - 0Â Â Â 2Â Â Â Â Â 7
A linear regression suggests that for every yard of starting position we give up, the opponent gains 0.03 points, though the effect is non-linear, and increases dramatically as the opponent approaches our side of the field. On average, our opponents get 0.9 point per possession, so arguably pushing them back 30 yards by punting is worth it from a defensive perspective (though note that by punting, we are giving up a chance to score).
BC
[/quote]
So we should always give them the ball at midfield.
Re: Try this number - CTcard - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 01:08 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Here's what I got for drives starting within our 20:
 Team Start Plays Yards Points
ASUÂ Â 88Â Â 4Â Â 12Â Â Â 7
OSUÂ Â 95Â Â 1Â Â 5Â Â Â 7
Note, I took the data from ESPN's drive charts, and they are not perfect. They were missing some data from the Davis game, and got at least one of the drives in the ASU game wrong. But, we have had two drives start within our 15, against ASU at our 12, and against OSU on our 5. Both resulted in touchdowns.
BC
Ouch, now I am feeling mathematically illiterate - bad news in my profession. I somehow turned 7 points per drive into 7 points total. Whoops.
... well, it was still a joke.
Re: Try this number - CTcard - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 01:28 PM)French Rage link Wrote:So we should always give them the ball at midfield.
There you go. Even better than my initial prescription of giving them the ball inside our 15.