[washingtonismoney]

Seems to me this is a unique case, though, since really both Kline and Goff are "true freshman," in the sense that not only are they working with a new coach but also a very different system from the one used by the previous head coach. And, in fact, said new system is much closer to the one played by the actual true frosh in high school, whereas Kline has no prior experience playing it. The choice isn't as bold as it would otherwise be were Tedford still head coach, imo. And then add that Goff participated in spring practice, furthering evening the field between him and Kline.

I agree that the Goff-vs-Kline comparison is sui generis, but I think the sample size of true freshmen starting -- in a variety of different situations -- is high enough to conclude most true freshmen starting QBs stink, whatever the particular circumstances of this or that true freshman.

(Here's Matt Hinton's take on true freshman QBs -- ignore the stuff about improvement/regression on QBs -- for an example of the work: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/...uarterback

I've seen another study that argues true freshman QBs improve at a slower rate than redshirted ones, but we'll leave that for another time.

Anyway, note that when you look at the true freshmen starters since 2008, none of them finished the year with a higher QB rating than Hogan's, to give you a benchmark.)

[washingtonismoney]

Seems to me this is a unique case, though, since really both Kline and Goff are "true freshman," in the sense that not only are they working with a new coach but also a very different system from the one used by the previous head coach. And, in fact, said new system is much closer to the one played by the actual true frosh in high school, whereas Kline has no prior experience playing it. The choice isn't as bold as it would otherwise be were Tedford still head coach, imo. And then add that Goff participated in spring practice, furthering evening the field between him and Kline.

I agree that the Goff-vs-Kline comparison is sui generis, but I think the sample size of true freshmen starting -- in a variety of different situations -- is high enough to conclude most true freshmen starting QBs stink, whatever the particular circumstances of this or that true freshman.

(Here's Matt Hinton's take on true freshman QBs -- ignore the stuff about improvement/regression on QBs -- for an example of the work: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/...uarterback

I've seen another study that argues true freshman QBs improve at a slower rate than redshirted ones, but we'll leave that for another time.

Anyway, note that when you look at the true freshmen starters since 2008, none of them finished the year with a higher QB rating than Hogan's, to give you a benchmark.)