[stupac2]

I don't know how anyone can be certain on this point. There's at least a slight chance that he's a terrible coach, no? I'm not saying he is, but I think you have to allow for the possibility.

Well, there's probably a close to 100% chance that he's not as brilliant as Kelly. The question is "does it matter?" It's hard to say. Maybe Chip was worth a few points per game above a replacement coach, and Helfrich isn't. Most of the time it won't matter, sometimes it will. It's also possible that after a long time under Kelly Helfrich won't be much of a downgrade at all. And, of course, you can't really rule out that he was a good OC but not fit to be a HC. It really is impossible to say right now.

My gut is that Oregon won't be much worse off. But there are brobdingnagian error bars on that prediction.

[stupac2]

I don't know how anyone can be certain on this point. There's at least a slight chance that he's a terrible coach, no? I'm not saying he is, but I think you have to allow for the possibility.

Well, there's probably a close to 100% chance that he's not as brilliant as Kelly. The question is "does it matter?" It's hard to say. Maybe Chip was worth a few points per game above a replacement coach, and Helfrich isn't. Most of the time it won't matter, sometimes it will. It's also possible that after a long time under Kelly Helfrich won't be much of a downgrade at all. And, of course, you can't really rule out that he was a good OC but not fit to be a HC. It really is impossible to say right now.

My gut is that Oregon won't be much worse off. But there are brobdingnagian error bars on that prediction.