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Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - Printable Version

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Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - LuckE2Bhere - 08-15-2013

I'm certainly no expert, and this post may just prove me to be a starry-eyed homer, but while I'm confident that Oregon is a Top 10 program, I'm not so sure they should be at the very top of the pre-season rankings.  In a gross over-simplification, it seems to me that great coaches value "the guys in the trenches", while many casual observers (and sportswriters) myopically devote their attention to "skill players".

Take this AP story, for example: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/oregon-moves-without-chip-kelly-175412441--ncaaf.html

The writer does (briefly) mention the departures of Jordan, Alonso and Boyette (as well as Barner), but much as everyone predicted that we'd suck post-Toby, post-Harbaugh and post-Luck, the article is clearly focused on the departure of Kelly and the return of Mariota and DAT (who I concede to be studs).  The discussion of their new facilities and incoming recruits (who rarely deliver an immediate impact) also seems classicly superficial to me.

CBSSports.com has the Quacks projected as a "comfortable No. 3 ahead of Stanford", but understanding that we don't have a lot of returning rushing or receiving yards, with the "return" of Gaffney and our depth at RB, great strength pretty much everywhere else save receivers, plus the fact that Team Nike returns just one LB (and no OGs), aren't we at least a relative value play here?



Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - StannyBoy - 08-15-2013

their offense should be fine but they have no depth at LB and in their secondary. Definitely not a NC contender IMO.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - oman - 08-15-2013

Well, hell.

Crossing fingers for Alamo Bowl.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - washingtonismoney - 08-15-2013

The trenches problem for Oregon is mostly when they have the ball and are playing a really good front 7. Their defensive front seven has been quite good for a while; their LBs this year might be mediocre but their DL should be pretty darn good. So I don't agree with the premise of the question.

The main source of uncertainty I see with Oregon is the coaching change. Stanford fans know full well that sometimes promoting the in-house coordinator works really well (Shaw) and sometimes not-so-well (Dowhower, for example). It's a crapshoot. Oregon has all the tools to make Helfrich a success, and certainty his pedigree is good, but you never know until you do it.

EDIT: by the way, anyone who doubts they'll be successful from a W-L perspective should just look at their schedule. Only an Idiotfacian effort could yield more than two losses barring a pestilence of injuries.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - fullmetal - 08-15-2013

(08-15-2013, 12:02 PM)oman link Wrote:Well, hell.

Crossing fingers for Alamo Bowl.

All offense and no defense?  Definitely a contender for the Alamo Bowl.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - Spiny_Norman - 08-15-2013

Oregon may be inexperienced at some positions, but by the time the Ducks go up against Stanford they will have played 8 games.  Barring injuries, the players will be battle-tested.  While Oregon has a new HC, Nick Aliotti is still the DC.  He is certainly capable and has a lot of talented players to work with.  The schedule is very favorable since the Ducks miss both USC and ASU.  Finally, Oregon has the best player in the conference in Mariota.  I can understand why writers might like them a bit more than the Cardinal.

However here is my suggestion - stop reading pre-season analyses and wait until the team actually plays some games.  Then decide for yourself if Oregon looks like a National Championship contender or pretender.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - AthleticsDynasty - 08-15-2013

Superficial is the right word. We beat them at their place with a less experienced QB and have more returning talent and aren't breaking in a new head coach

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - yvonne - 08-15-2013

(08-15-2013, 12:33 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:Oregon may be inexperienced at some positions, but by the time the Ducks go up against Stanford they will have played 8 games.  Barring injuries, the players will be battle-tested.  While Oregon has a new HC, Nick Aliotti is still the DC.  He is certainly capable and has a lot of talented players to work with.  The schedule is very favorable since the Ducks miss both Under Stanford Control and ASU.  Finally, Oregon has the best player in the conference in Mariota.  I can understand why writers might like them a bit more than the Cardinal.

However here is my suggestion - stop reading pre-season analyses and wait until the team actually plays some games.  Then decide for yourself if Oregon looks like a National Championship contender or pretender.

That's probably good advice regard preseason prognostications about regarding another team, as well.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - stanfan - 08-15-2013

Oregon isn't going to slip because of the HC change.  If they have a problem, it will be at LB where they are, althought very talented, relatively inexperienced and not deep.  There is also a question at RB.  They have DAT, but he's not an every down running back.  Byron Marshall, who Stanford recruited, is the likely starter.  They have an all world frosh, but he's hurt and it remains to be seen how he'll adjust in his first year.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - StannyBoy - 08-15-2013

they're very unlucky to have lost out on RB Dontre Wilson who flipped to OSU last year. It sounds like he's going to be a star from day 1 in Columbus. But Thomas Tyner will probably be pretty damn good too.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - washingtonismoney - 08-15-2013

(08-15-2013, 03:01 PM)stanfan link Wrote:Oregon isn't going to slip because of the HC change. 

I don't know how anyone can be certain on this point. There's at least a slight chance that he's a terrible coach, no? I'm not saying he is, but I think you have to allow for the possibility.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - stupac2 - 08-15-2013

(08-15-2013, 03:12 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:I don't know how anyone can be certain on this point. There's at least a slight chance that he's a terrible coach, no? I'm not saying he is, but I think you have to allow for the possibility.
Well, there's probably a close to 100% chance that he's not as brilliant as Kelly. The question is "does it matter?" It's hard to say. Maybe Chip was worth a few points per game above a replacement coach, and Helfrich isn't. Most of the time it won't matter, sometimes it will. It's also possible that after a long time under Kelly Helfrich won't be much of a downgrade at all. And, of course, you can't really rule out that he was a good OC but not fit to be a HC. It really is impossible to say right now.

My gut is that Oregon won't be much worse off. But there are brobdingnagian error bars on that prediction.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - PrinceLightfoot - 08-15-2013

The hype will be there until they drop a game to someone other than Stanford this year. I agree with young_money - Oregon cannot afford injuries on the defense (especially LB) or OL this season. The depth is just not there. 

On a different note, am I the only one who finds it amusing when Helfrich tries to speak as clearly and quickly as Kelly did during interviews? It screams of I-am-just-like-Chip.



Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - JohnR34231 - 08-15-2013

My guess is that if you are going to see a drop off post-Kelly you won't see it for a couple of years. The kids there now are Kelly's recruits, they have learned his system, and I think Helfrich will be a decent caretaker.

The Ducks will be a contender for national honors. We may knock them off at home, but I sure can't see them losing many others.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - Mick - 08-16-2013

(08-15-2013, 03:01 PM)stanfan link Wrote:Oregon isn't going to slip because of the HC change. 

I'm not saying they will or won't slip.  But too many teams have slipped when promoting coordinators for me to  make that a blanket statement.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - AthleticsDynasty - 08-16-2013

(08-15-2013, 03:05 PM)young_money link Wrote:they're very unlucky to have lost out on RB Dontre Wilson who flipped to OSU last year. It sounds like he's going to be a star from day 1 in Columbus. But Thomas Tyner will probably be pretty damn good too.

Tyner scares me.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - Mick - 08-16-2013

(08-15-2013, 12:33 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:While Oregon has a new HC, Nick Aliotti is still the DC.  He is certainly capable and has a lot of talented players to work with.

Average points given up by Oregon to Stanford over past three years, 26 per game.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - Yellowlab - 08-18-2013

Check out the side bar "Nerds R US" on page 50.  The wedding Kelli writes about was ours!  (wbbfan+me)  My father-in-law tries to deny it, but there were too many witnesses.

Re: Oregon hype sounds somewhat superficial - Treefence - 08-18-2013

Their Offense should stay somewhat the same, I'm sure it'll still be reminiscent of Chip Kelly but maybe take a step back.  Their defense has always been a bit underrated, I think they will still be a very tough battle for Stanford, and they also have one of the best home field advantages in the league.Â