09-20-2026, 01:32 PM
Re: the Georgia Tech spread, Sagarin would have us as 5.5 point underdogs using a historically normal home field advantage and 3.5 point underdogs using the home field advantage that has evinced in college football so far this season, as low as a 2.5 point spread using some models from the last few years. SP+ looks like we should be a 4.5 to 6.5 point underdog. In other words, it seems to me that Vegas is currently pegging that Stanford will play Georgia Tech something like an average of how we've played so far in 2026. In terms of probability, this means that we have about a 37 percent chance of winning, with models varying between 32-39 percent.
