11-12-2012, 09:47 PM
I've been looking the current BCS rankings in detail and Im feeling really good about staying in the Top 14 if Oregon wins out and we beat UCLA. I'd rather see us win out and take the Pac-12, but just in case we don't...
Currently we're ranked 13th with a .5705 BCS average. Were closer in average BCS average to #8 Texas A&M (.6621) than we are to the team just below us, #14 Nebraska (.4679), so we are a relatively strong #13 right now. The computers like us a lot more than the humans do (#11 computer average, 13th in both polls) and an Oregon loss and UCLA win is unlikely to change our computer rankings much. Computers are 1/3 of the total, but the strong computer rankings help a lot as you move down the rankings. I took a deeper look at the teams around us in the rankings.
*Â There are only 6 possible teams that I think could pass us and wed have to be passed by two teams to finish 15th (obviously) if we don't pass anyone else
*Â Nebraska has to win out and pull off an upset in their championship game (they play Wisconsin who beat them earlier in a close game at Nebraska), but if they win out theyll probably jump us
*Â Texas and Michigan would have to win out and pull off big road upsets (@KSU and @Ohio State respectively), but if they do they will probably jump us
* Wed have to get demolished in the polls to get passed by any of 3 other teams: the Louisville/Rutgers winner, LA Tech, or the TxTech/OkSt winner. They are all right around 3-loss $C currently in the polls, so thats likely about where wed end up with another loss. The computers hate Louisville, Rutgers and LA Tech. I would worry most about OkSt if they beat OU and TxTech.
*Â The poll ordering vs. the teams listed above will be influenced by how we do on Saturday. We should be the top-ranked 3 loss team with 2 of our 3 losses coming to undefeated teams on the road and the 3rd loss on the road to a top 25 team (if Wash. wins out) and of course, a win against USC who is currently right in that same region in the polls.
*Â The other Pac-10 teams (USC, UCLA, and OSU) dont factor into this scenario. All 3 will have at least one more loss if Oregon wins out and we beat UCLA.
* We are very close in points to the 3 teams above us and they all have very tough games remaining. FSU still plays Florida, Clemson plays S. Carolina and OK has 3 tough games: @WV, Ok State and then @TCU. FSU & Clemson play their tough games at the end of the season (its bad in the polls to lose late) and any of the 3 could get blown out which would really help us pass them.
* Im feeling confident because I think well end up passing one of the 3 teams above and unless really crazy things happen, well only get passed by one of the 6 teams that could pass us. All depends on the result this Saturday and how close it is.
* One other note Ive seen a lot of debate about whether the Rose would take us over Notre Dame. Id be shocked if they don't. The Rose Bowl cares far more about tradition than any other bowl. I just cant imagine them blowing up a Big 10 / Pac-12 matchup, even for an undefeated Notre Dame. Jerry Palm and the other most knowledgeable commentators who don't have us in the Rose project us losing to UCLA or think we don't finish in the top 14.
Currently we're ranked 13th with a .5705 BCS average. Were closer in average BCS average to #8 Texas A&M (.6621) than we are to the team just below us, #14 Nebraska (.4679), so we are a relatively strong #13 right now. The computers like us a lot more than the humans do (#11 computer average, 13th in both polls) and an Oregon loss and UCLA win is unlikely to change our computer rankings much. Computers are 1/3 of the total, but the strong computer rankings help a lot as you move down the rankings. I took a deeper look at the teams around us in the rankings.
*Â There are only 6 possible teams that I think could pass us and wed have to be passed by two teams to finish 15th (obviously) if we don't pass anyone else
*Â Nebraska has to win out and pull off an upset in their championship game (they play Wisconsin who beat them earlier in a close game at Nebraska), but if they win out theyll probably jump us
*Â Texas and Michigan would have to win out and pull off big road upsets (@KSU and @Ohio State respectively), but if they do they will probably jump us
* Wed have to get demolished in the polls to get passed by any of 3 other teams: the Louisville/Rutgers winner, LA Tech, or the TxTech/OkSt winner. They are all right around 3-loss $C currently in the polls, so thats likely about where wed end up with another loss. The computers hate Louisville, Rutgers and LA Tech. I would worry most about OkSt if they beat OU and TxTech.
*Â The poll ordering vs. the teams listed above will be influenced by how we do on Saturday. We should be the top-ranked 3 loss team with 2 of our 3 losses coming to undefeated teams on the road and the 3rd loss on the road to a top 25 team (if Wash. wins out) and of course, a win against USC who is currently right in that same region in the polls.
*Â The other Pac-10 teams (USC, UCLA, and OSU) dont factor into this scenario. All 3 will have at least one more loss if Oregon wins out and we beat UCLA.
* We are very close in points to the 3 teams above us and they all have very tough games remaining. FSU still plays Florida, Clemson plays S. Carolina and OK has 3 tough games: @WV, Ok State and then @TCU. FSU & Clemson play their tough games at the end of the season (its bad in the polls to lose late) and any of the 3 could get blown out which would really help us pass them.
* Im feeling confident because I think well end up passing one of the 3 teams above and unless really crazy things happen, well only get passed by one of the 6 teams that could pass us. All depends on the result this Saturday and how close it is.
* One other note Ive seen a lot of debate about whether the Rose would take us over Notre Dame. Id be shocked if they don't. The Rose Bowl cares far more about tradition than any other bowl. I just cant imagine them blowing up a Big 10 / Pac-12 matchup, even for an undefeated Notre Dame. Jerry Palm and the other most knowledgeable commentators who don't have us in the Rose project us losing to UCLA or think we don't finish in the top 14.