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BCS possibilities - 97fan - 11-04-2012
It went unremarked on here, but doesn't Boise State's loss give Stanford a significant boost in the BCS race?
Under the scenario where Stanford loses to Oregon, but still finishes 9-3 and in the top 14 of the BCS standings, I believe we'd need four of the following five pieces to fall into place:
1) Only one ACC team qualifies for the BCS. It looks like the ACC champ will most likely be Fla. State. We'd benefit from Clemson losing to S. Carolina. But I'm not sure if that would be enough to knock them out of the top 14. They are #13 now, and we are #14. Not sure that a loss to S.C. would hurt them more than Stanford would be hurt by a loss to Oregon.
2) Only one Big-12 team qualifies for the BCS. This likely requires at least one more loss by both Oklahoma and Texas, since K-State has a two-game lead in the conference, and there's no conference championship game. Both Oklahoma and Texas have tough remaining schedules. Texas has Iowa State, TCU and at K-State. Oklahoma is at West Virginia, home against Ok. State, and at TCU.
3) No team from outside the outside the six BCS conferences finishes in the top 16 of the standings. This is where the Boise loss is helpful. La. Tech and Toledo are both one-loss teams, but I'm not sure that either will finish in the top 16. La. Tech was #25 in the BCS standings last week, and Toledo was not ranked.
4) Big 10 only gets one team in. It's pretty hard to see how the Big 10 gets two berths, given that undefeated Ohio State is ineligible for the post-season. But we should be rooting for two-loss Nebraska and two-loss Northwestern to lose, just to be safe.
5) Big East only gets one team in. Again, it seems unlikely that this crappy conference would get two berths. One scenario where it might happen is if Rutgers wins out and beats undefeated Louisville in the last game of the season. Then Rutgers would be the league champs and get an automatic berth, and a one-loss Louisville might get an at-large.
BCS possibilities - 97fan - 11-04-2012
It went unremarked on here, but doesn't Boise State's loss give Stanford a significant boost in the BCS race?
Under the scenario where Stanford loses to Oregon, but still finishes 9-3 and in the top 14 of the BCS standings, I believe we'd need four of the following five pieces to fall into place:
1) Only one ACC team qualifies for the BCS. It looks like the ACC champ will most likely be Fla. State. We'd benefit from Clemson losing to S. Carolina. But I'm not sure if that would be enough to knock them out of the top 14. They are #13 now, and we are #14. Not sure that a loss to S.C. would hurt them more than Stanford would be hurt by a loss to Oregon.
2) Only one Big-12 team qualifies for the BCS. This likely requires at least one more loss by both Oklahoma and Texas, since K-State has a two-game lead in the conference, and there's no conference championship game. Both Oklahoma and Texas have tough remaining schedules. Texas has Iowa State, TCU and at K-State. Oklahoma is at West Virginia, home against Ok. State, and at TCU.
3) No team from outside the outside the six BCS conferences finishes in the top 16 of the standings. This is where the Boise loss is helpful. La. Tech and Toledo are both one-loss teams, but I'm not sure that either will finish in the top 16. La. Tech was #25 in the BCS standings last week, and Toledo was not ranked.
4) Big 10 only gets one team in. It's pretty hard to see how the Big 10 gets two berths, given that undefeated Ohio State is ineligible for the post-season. But we should be rooting for two-loss Nebraska and two-loss Northwestern to lose, just to be safe.
5) Big East only gets one team in. Again, it seems unlikely that this crappy conference would get two berths. One scenario where it might happen is if Rutgers wins out and beats undefeated Louisville in the last game of the season. Then Rutgers would be the league champs and get an automatic berth, and a one-loss Louisville might get an at-large.
Re: BCS possibilities - fullmetal - 11-04-2012
Don't worry about Texas--I suspect they will get mowed down by the K-State juggernaut like most every other team. Oklahoma probably wins out; I'd say WVU has the best chance of beating the Sooners, but the Sooners whupped Texas Tech pretty badly, and Tech did quite a number on WVU in turn.Â
Re: BCS possibilities - fullmetal - 11-04-2012
Don't worry about Texas--I suspect they will get mowed down by the K-State juggernaut like most every other team. Oklahoma probably wins out; I'd say WVU has the best chance of beating the Sooners, but the Sooners whupped Texas Tech pretty badly, and Tech did quite a number on WVU in turn.Â
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-04-2012
The story is easy to follow, though not one loved on this board.
The SEC is likely to have 5-6 teams in the final BCS top 14. Having 6 teams from one conference in the final 14 will create a lack of options for the BCS bowls.
There are 10 slots and 4 at-large slots. So the trick becomes for the BCS 14 to be overwhelmed with teams from one or two conferences and that looks like it will happen this year.Â
The SEC will get two invites. (3 at-large left)
Notre Dame will get one invite. (2 at-large left)
For simplicity, and because I think it is likely the Big12 will get a second invite too. (1 At-large left)
How then to make an undesirable Pac-12 #2 team a pseudo automatic pick?
These teams must be in the final top 14
Bama
SEC #2 (for now Georgia)
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Big 12 #2 (for now Oklahoma)
Louisville
Oregon
Florida State
Nebraska (currently #16)
That's 9 teams for 10 BCS slots. With 5 Top 14 slots left. Imagine Stanford is in the 14 and Oregon State is not.
How could Stanford become a forced pick? It really is already there.
Along with Bama, Georgia, K-State & Oklahoma the SEC/Big12 combined must have 4 other teams in the top 14.
SEC #3 Florida BCS #6 - Would not be an option
SEC #4 LSU BCS #7 - Would not be an option
SEC #5 South Carolina BCS #8 - Would not be an option
SEC #6 Texas A&M BCS #15 and/or Texas #17 need to move up. Clemson MUST move out. But Clemson ends with #5 South Carolina and two very bad ACC teams. It is not out of the question Stanford finishes in the top 14 with Texas A&M, while Clemson with a loss sits outside the 14. Clemson is clearly going to be pick #10 (at large #4) if the season ended now. ESPN even noted that during the BCS show.
Given the current list only Clemson and Louisiana Tech are left to get pushed away. Ironically, Louisiana Tech ends their year with... San Jose State!!
If SEC #6 and/or Big12 #3 sits in the BCS top 14 and Clemson/LaTech are not in the top 14, then the Pac-12's #2 would have to be selected if it sits in the top 14.
All three of Stanford's final 3 opponents are in the BCS top 25, the potential is there to go 2-1 and finish in the top 14. With the right mix of BCS 14 Stanford (or any Pac-12 #2 in the top 14) would have to be selected. The BCS bowl stuck with Stanford might hate it and might want a different team, but it would have to take Stanford because there were no other choices available. The secret then is Big12 and SEC to clog the 14 and for just two more teams to stay out of the way.
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-04-2012
The story is easy to follow, though not one loved on this board.
The SEC is likely to have 5-6 teams in the final BCS top 14. Having 6 teams from one conference in the final 14 will create a lack of options for the BCS bowls.
There are 10 slots and 4 at-large slots. So the trick becomes for the BCS 14 to be overwhelmed with teams from one or two conferences and that looks like it will happen this year.Â
The SEC will get two invites. (3 at-large left)
Notre Dame will get one invite. (2 at-large left)
For simplicity, and because I think it is likely the Big12 will get a second invite too. (1 At-large left)
How then to make an undesirable Pac-12 #2 team a pseudo automatic pick?
These teams must be in the final top 14
Bama
SEC #2 (for now Georgia)
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Big 12 #2 (for now Oklahoma)
Louisville
Oregon
Florida State
Nebraska (currently #16)
That's 9 teams for 10 BCS slots. With 5 Top 14 slots left. Imagine Stanford is in the 14 and Oregon State is not.
How could Stanford become a forced pick? It really is already there.
Along with Bama, Georgia, K-State & Oklahoma the SEC/Big12 combined must have 4 other teams in the top 14.
SEC #3 Florida BCS #6 - Would not be an option
SEC #4 LSU BCS #7 - Would not be an option
SEC #5 South Carolina BCS #8 - Would not be an option
SEC #6 Texas A&M BCS #15 and/or Texas #17 need to move up. Clemson MUST move out. But Clemson ends with #5 South Carolina and two very bad ACC teams. It is not out of the question Stanford finishes in the top 14 with Texas A&M, while Clemson with a loss sits outside the 14. Clemson is clearly going to be pick #10 (at large #4) if the season ended now. ESPN even noted that during the BCS show.
Given the current list only Clemson and Louisiana Tech are left to get pushed away. Ironically, Louisiana Tech ends their year with... San Jose State!!
If SEC #6 and/or Big12 #3 sits in the BCS top 14 and Clemson/LaTech are not in the top 14, then the Pac-12's #2 would have to be selected if it sits in the top 14.
All three of Stanford's final 3 opponents are in the BCS top 25, the potential is there to go 2-1 and finish in the top 14. With the right mix of BCS 14 Stanford (or any Pac-12 #2 in the top 14) would have to be selected. The BCS bowl stuck with Stanford might hate it and might want a different team, but it would have to take Stanford because there were no other choices available. The secret then is Big12 and SEC to clog the 14 and for just two more teams to stay out of the way.
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-04-2012
Isn't it strange that for the past two years, we were worried that if Stanford dropped out of the top 4, we would be overlooked for a BCS bowl, and now we might be #14, and be actually forced into a BCS bowl?
What a dumb system. Still pissed that we would've had two straight years with a shot at the national championship if only college football had picked a reasonable playoff system a couple years earlier.
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-04-2012
Isn't it strange that for the past two years, we were worried that if Stanford dropped out of the top 4, we would be overlooked for a BCS bowl, and now we might be #14, and be actually forced into a BCS bowl?
What a dumb system. Still pissed that we would've had two straight years with a shot at the national championship if only college football had picked a reasonable playoff system a couple years earlier.
Re: BCS possibilities - Hank 91 - 11-04-2012
Before reading your post I had spent the last thirty minutes or so looking at the schedules of the teams in front of us. Thanks, Farm93, for explaining that in such detail. Now my head hurts. I think I'll just focus all my spiritual energy towards willing a win over Oregon State, then moving on from there.
Re: BCS possibilities - Hank 91 - 11-04-2012
Before reading your post I had spent the last thirty minutes or so looking at the schedules of the teams in front of us. Thanks, Farm93, for explaining that in such detail. Now my head hurts. I think I'll just focus all my spiritual energy towards willing a win over Oregon State, then moving on from there.
Re: BCS possibilities - Cardinal96 - 11-04-2012
Given where UCLA and OSU are currently ranked, finishing the season 2-1 will definitely have us top 14. Anyone know of the chance that we get picked by the Rose Bowl to match with a Big Ten team assuming Oregon plays in the title game? If we finish 2-1, we would likely be the only Pac 12 team ranked in the BCS top 14 along with Oregon.
EDIT: the above scenario assumes Clemson would also be in the top 14. I wanted to understand if there was a chance we could leapfrog Clemson (or another possible team that wasn't eliminated by virtue of being in a conference with two selections already).
Re: BCS possibilities - Cardinal96 - 11-04-2012
Given where UCLA and OSU are currently ranked, finishing the season 2-1 will definitely have us top 14. Anyone know of the chance that we get picked by the Rose Bowl to match with a Big Ten team assuming Oregon plays in the title game? If we finish 2-1, we would likely be the only Pac 12 team ranked in the BCS top 14 along with Oregon.
EDIT: the above scenario assumes Clemson would also be in the top 14. I wanted to understand if there was a chance we could leapfrog Clemson (or another possible team that wasn't eliminated by virtue of being in a conference with two selections already).
Re: BCS possibilities - Hank 91 - 11-04-2012
Here's the text from the BCS site:
Quote:If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-12 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.
There are two ways we get to the Rose Bowl:
1. Winning out.
2. Oregon and Alabama win out and play in the NCG.
Since #1 isn't very complicated, let's look at #2. I think the key part of the text up above is this: "...the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick." The Sugar Bowl would lose Alabama, the presumptive #1, so they'd get first shot at Notre Dame and take them faster than you can say red beans and rice. The Rose Bowl would be next, and everything they've ever said and done makes one believe they'd want a Pac-12 vs. Big Ten matchup. If Stanford's in the top 14, you can book passage to Pasadena.
Here's the link to the complete selection procedures:
http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
Re: BCS possibilities - Hank 91 - 11-04-2012
Here's the text from the BCS site:
Quote:If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-12 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.
There are two ways we get to the Rose Bowl:
1. Winning out.
2. Oregon and Alabama win out and play in the NCG.
Since #1 isn't very complicated, let's look at #2. I think the key part of the text up above is this: "...the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick." The Sugar Bowl would lose Alabama, the presumptive #1, so they'd get first shot at Notre Dame and take them faster than you can say red beans and rice. The Rose Bowl would be next, and everything they've ever said and done makes one believe they'd want a Pac-12 vs. Big Ten matchup. If Stanford's in the top 14, you can book passage to Pasadena.
Here's the link to the complete selection procedures:
http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
Re: BCS possibilities - g1313 - 11-04-2012
(11-04-2012, 07:43 PM)NYCCardinalFan link Wrote:Given where UCLA and OSU are currently ranked, finishing the season 2-1 will definitely have us top 14. Anyone know of the chance that we get picked by the Rose Bowl to match with a Big Ten team assuming Oregon plays in the title game? If we finish 2-1, we would likely be the only Pac 12 team ranked in the BCS top 14 along with Oregon.
EDIT: the above scenario assumes Clemson would also be in the top 14. I wanted to understand if there was a chance we could leapfrog Clemson (or another possible team that wasn't eliminated by virtue of being in a conference with two selections already).
I read a quote from a Rose Bowl executive this week that said that they would prefer a traditional Big 10 - Pac 12 matchup, but if there is not an eligible Pac-12 team they would be happy to take the domers. Read into that what you will, but I think if we are in the Top 14 and the Rose Bowl still has a choice, we make it.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8580673/notre-dame-fighting-irish-present-attractive-option-bcs-bowls-officials-say
Re: BCS possibilities - g1313 - 11-04-2012
(11-04-2012, 07:43 PM)NYCCardinalFan link Wrote:Given where UCLA and OSU are currently ranked, finishing the season 2-1 will definitely have us top 14. Anyone know of the chance that we get picked by the Rose Bowl to match with a Big Ten team assuming Oregon plays in the title game? If we finish 2-1, we would likely be the only Pac 12 team ranked in the BCS top 14 along with Oregon.
EDIT: the above scenario assumes Clemson would also be in the top 14. I wanted to understand if there was a chance we could leapfrog Clemson (or another possible team that wasn't eliminated by virtue of being in a conference with two selections already).
I read a quote from a Rose Bowl executive this week that said that they would prefer a traditional Big 10 - Pac 12 matchup, but if there is not an eligible Pac-12 team they would be happy to take the domers. Read into that what you will, but I think if we are in the Top 14 and the Rose Bowl still has a choice, we make it.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8580673/notre-dame-fighting-irish-present-attractive-option-bcs-bowls-officials-say
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-04-2012
I wouldn't be so sure about that H91- at least in public statements the Sugar Bowl hasn't been on the Irish jock like the Fiesta bowl has been...
Quote:Sugar Bowl spokesman John Sudsbury wasn't quite as effusive, but said the bowl committee would "look very close at them" if Notre Dame is eligible. Sudbury said a team with a storied past like Notre Dame's wouldn't necessarily have an advantage.
"Sometimes we like a team that is making a new name for itself or hasn't been in our bowl before," Sudsbury said. "It can help them. It's definitely a factor that we look at. But I'm not saying that would give them weight over somebody that doesn't have the same history."
I wouldn't be surprised if the Sugar Bowl picked Georgia over ND, that is if ND loses to SC. If ND is undefeated, I think they'd be the pick.
Was good to see the Rose Bowl response in their- seems to indicate if a P10 vs B10 matchup is possible they're gonna go for it.
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/49647520/ns/sports-college_football/
Re: BCS possibilities - dabigv13 - 11-04-2012
I wouldn't be so sure about that H91- at least in public statements the Sugar Bowl hasn't been on the Irish jock like the Fiesta bowl has been...
Quote:Sugar Bowl spokesman John Sudsbury wasn't quite as effusive, but said the bowl committee would "look very close at them" if Notre Dame is eligible. Sudbury said a team with a storied past like Notre Dame's wouldn't necessarily have an advantage.
"Sometimes we like a team that is making a new name for itself or hasn't been in our bowl before," Sudsbury said. "It can help them. It's definitely a factor that we look at. But I'm not saying that would give them weight over somebody that doesn't have the same history."
I wouldn't be surprised if the Sugar Bowl picked Georgia over ND, that is if ND loses to SC. If ND is undefeated, I think they'd be the pick.
Was good to see the Rose Bowl response in their- seems to indicate if a P10 vs B10 matchup is possible they're gonna go for it.
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/49647520/ns/sports-college_football/
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-04-2012
To get to the Rose Bowl Stanford does not need Bama to win out. Stanford merely needs to finish as Pac-12 #2 - Possible/Probable and for Oregon to be in the BCS CG.
Oregon's opponent could be Bama, Georgia, Notre Dame or Kansas State. That would not be very important. The Pac-12 South and loser of the Pac-12 CG would need to finish outside of the top 14. That seems likely since for Stanford to be in the top 14 that Pac-12 South team would have to have at least 4 losses and in most cases a loss to Stanford too.
Re: BCS possibilities - Farm93 - 11-04-2012
To get to the Rose Bowl Stanford does not need Bama to win out. Stanford merely needs to finish as Pac-12 #2 - Possible/Probable and for Oregon to be in the BCS CG.
Oregon's opponent could be Bama, Georgia, Notre Dame or Kansas State. That would not be very important. The Pac-12 South and loser of the Pac-12 CG would need to finish outside of the top 14. That seems likely since for Stanford to be in the top 14 that Pac-12 South team would have to have at least 4 losses and in most cases a loss to Stanford too.