11-04-2012, 07:23 PM
The story is easy to follow, though not one loved on this board.
The SEC is likely to have 5-6 teams in the final BCS top 14. Having 6 teams from one conference in the final 14 will create a lack of options for the BCS bowls.
There are 10 slots and 4 at-large slots. So the trick becomes for the BCS 14 to be overwhelmed with teams from one or two conferences and that looks like it will happen this year.Â
The SEC will get two invites. (3 at-large left)
Notre Dame will get one invite. (2 at-large left)
For simplicity, and because I think it is likely the Big12 will get a second invite too. (1 At-large left)
How then to make an undesirable Pac-12 #2 team a pseudo automatic pick?
These teams must be in the final top 14
Bama
SEC #2 (for now Georgia)
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Big 12 #2 (for now Oklahoma)
Louisville
Oregon
Florida State
Nebraska (currently #16)
That's 9 teams for 10 BCS slots. With 5 Top 14 slots left. Imagine Stanford is in the 14 and Oregon State is not.
How could Stanford become a forced pick? It really is already there.
Along with Bama, Georgia, K-State & Oklahoma the SEC/Big12 combined must have 4 other teams in the top 14.
SEC #3 Florida BCS #6 - Would not be an option
SEC #4 LSU BCS #7 - Would not be an option
SEC #5 South Carolina BCS #8 - Would not be an option
SEC #6 Texas A&M BCS #15 and/or Texas #17 need to move up. Clemson MUST move out. But Clemson ends with #5 South Carolina and two very bad ACC teams. It is not out of the question Stanford finishes in the top 14 with Texas A&M, while Clemson with a loss sits outside the 14. Clemson is clearly going to be pick #10 (at large #4) if the season ended now. ESPN even noted that during the BCS show.
Given the current list only Clemson and Louisiana Tech are left to get pushed away. Ironically, Louisiana Tech ends their year with... San Jose State!!
If SEC #6 and/or Big12 #3 sits in the BCS top 14 and Clemson/LaTech are not in the top 14, then the Pac-12's #2 would have to be selected if it sits in the top 14.
All three of Stanford's final 3 opponents are in the BCS top 25, the potential is there to go 2-1 and finish in the top 14. With the right mix of BCS 14 Stanford (or any Pac-12 #2 in the top 14) would have to be selected. The BCS bowl stuck with Stanford might hate it and might want a different team, but it would have to take Stanford because there were no other choices available. The secret then is Big12 and SEC to clog the 14 and for just two more teams to stay out of the way.
The SEC is likely to have 5-6 teams in the final BCS top 14. Having 6 teams from one conference in the final 14 will create a lack of options for the BCS bowls.
There are 10 slots and 4 at-large slots. So the trick becomes for the BCS 14 to be overwhelmed with teams from one or two conferences and that looks like it will happen this year.Â
The SEC will get two invites. (3 at-large left)
Notre Dame will get one invite. (2 at-large left)
For simplicity, and because I think it is likely the Big12 will get a second invite too. (1 At-large left)
How then to make an undesirable Pac-12 #2 team a pseudo automatic pick?
These teams must be in the final top 14
Bama
SEC #2 (for now Georgia)
Notre Dame
Kansas State
Big 12 #2 (for now Oklahoma)
Louisville
Oregon
Florida State
Nebraska (currently #16)
That's 9 teams for 10 BCS slots. With 5 Top 14 slots left. Imagine Stanford is in the 14 and Oregon State is not.
How could Stanford become a forced pick? It really is already there.
Along with Bama, Georgia, K-State & Oklahoma the SEC/Big12 combined must have 4 other teams in the top 14.
SEC #3 Florida BCS #6 - Would not be an option
SEC #4 LSU BCS #7 - Would not be an option
SEC #5 South Carolina BCS #8 - Would not be an option
SEC #6 Texas A&M BCS #15 and/or Texas #17 need to move up. Clemson MUST move out. But Clemson ends with #5 South Carolina and two very bad ACC teams. It is not out of the question Stanford finishes in the top 14 with Texas A&M, while Clemson with a loss sits outside the 14. Clemson is clearly going to be pick #10 (at large #4) if the season ended now. ESPN even noted that during the BCS show.
Given the current list only Clemson and Louisiana Tech are left to get pushed away. Ironically, Louisiana Tech ends their year with... San Jose State!!
If SEC #6 and/or Big12 #3 sits in the BCS top 14 and Clemson/LaTech are not in the top 14, then the Pac-12's #2 would have to be selected if it sits in the top 14.
All three of Stanford's final 3 opponents are in the BCS top 25, the potential is there to go 2-1 and finish in the top 14. With the right mix of BCS 14 Stanford (or any Pac-12 #2 in the top 14) would have to be selected. The BCS bowl stuck with Stanford might hate it and might want a different team, but it would have to take Stanford because there were no other choices available. The secret then is Big12 and SEC to clog the 14 and for just two more teams to stay out of the way.