[Goose]

Storm Shadow is already in Ukraine! From below thread it seems they are indeed being launched from Ukrainian aircraft. Has not yet been used/tested it sounds like.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status...72768?s=20

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/...47169?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/165...11682?s=20

One way to mitigate air defense weakness is to attack your opponent's air force on the ground....

Good news that it is moving this fast. Hopefully this means they had been working on this for a while and the time to operational use will be relatively short. There are lots of defensive fortifications/logistics targets in the Donbas and all along the "land bridge" that could be attacked by this missile. Obviously there are very lucrative targets in Crimea as well.

I am still skeptical about how well this is all going to play together, but at the very least it complicates the Russian air defense task greatly. Right now, they really don't have to worry much about Ukraine attacking deeply into the occupied parts of the country because the Ukrainians have too few aircraft and they can't afford the losses that would result. The cruise missiles don't have that issue, can take a planned, circuitous path, and fly low all the way.

It seems improbable that the UK would give Ukraine the "go ahead" to hit air bases in Russia proper using a UK supplied weapon. I guess it is not impossible they would do so, but I do think it would arguably constitute a large escalation. It would be "nice", because allowing Russia to bang away at Ukraine with ALCMs from aircraft at these bases is a "real big problem". It is a walk in the park for Russian air and a nightmare for Ukraine. Even if the UK was of the opinion that allowing Ukraine to do the same to Russia was indeed a symmetrical action by "the west", I am pretty sure they would have needed to tell everybody in NATO, and I can't IMAGINE that getting buy-in. Even if they just told the US, I don't think it would fly :-). If they didn't tell the US and it happens, I don't want to think about the consequences. OTOH, maybe I am wrong and the US has bought in to the idea. Seems hard to belive to me, what do other's think? I guess it doesn't matter until they fly.

Good thread on storm shadows capabilities
https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1...31264?s=20

Indeed a good source of info. I also think it relevant that the accuracy of the Storm Shadow as an ALCM is nominally better than that of an ATACMs is correct. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current open source literature about the actual accuracy of the "current" version of the ATACMs missile. What is undoubtedly true however is that the US doesn't have a lot of these missiles and IMO that has really increased the army's reluctance to part with them. The Precision Strike Missile program (and the associated requirements back and forth) has "overhung" the existing ATACMs for way too long. This is an example of, among other things, "the prefect being the enemy of good enough".

There are a couple of things that do need to be considered for both longer range weapons. One that I have mentioned before is the effect of GPS jamming on accuracy. What the real situation in Ukraine is in this regard I don't know but it does sound like this is a big problem that can get bigger. You can bet that all significant Russian air bases have GPS jammers. The second is that ALCMs are not very good against time-sensitive targets unless you have aircraft "stacked" for such tasking.

The time it takes to plan the mission, fuel and arm the aircraft, get in the air and launch the missile is much greater than communicating the target coordinates to the ATACMs battery who then shoots. The US found this to be true in Iraq. The first takes a few hours, the second less than 15 minutes. In many cases, that matters. Of course, the USAF "solved" that by stacking aircraft that could be tasked in "near real time". It was still slower than the ATACMs, but not as much. Of course, they couldn't do this 24/7. Consumed too many assets that often didn't do anything. OTOH, if there was no ATACMs within range of the target of opportunity, the air launched missile was the only option. Thus the need for the extended range precision strike missile.

[Goose]

Storm Shadow is already in Ukraine! From below thread it seems they are indeed being launched from Ukrainian aircraft. Has not yet been used/tested it sounds like.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status...72768?s=20

https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/...47169?s=20

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/165...11682?s=20

One way to mitigate air defense weakness is to attack your opponent's air force on the ground....

Good news that it is moving this fast. Hopefully this means they had been working on this for a while and the time to operational use will be relatively short. There are lots of defensive fortifications/logistics targets in the Donbas and all along the "land bridge" that could be attacked by this missile. Obviously there are very lucrative targets in Crimea as well.

I am still skeptical about how well this is all going to play together, but at the very least it complicates the Russian air defense task greatly. Right now, they really don't have to worry much about Ukraine attacking deeply into the occupied parts of the country because the Ukrainians have too few aircraft and they can't afford the losses that would result. The cruise missiles don't have that issue, can take a planned, circuitous path, and fly low all the way.

It seems improbable that the UK would give Ukraine the "go ahead" to hit air bases in Russia proper using a UK supplied weapon. I guess it is not impossible they would do so, but I do think it would arguably constitute a large escalation. It would be "nice", because allowing Russia to bang away at Ukraine with ALCMs from aircraft at these bases is a "real big problem". It is a walk in the park for Russian air and a nightmare for Ukraine. Even if the UK was of the opinion that allowing Ukraine to do the same to Russia was indeed a symmetrical action by "the west", I am pretty sure they would have needed to tell everybody in NATO, and I can't IMAGINE that getting buy-in. Even if they just told the US, I don't think it would fly :-). If they didn't tell the US and it happens, I don't want to think about the consequences. OTOH, maybe I am wrong and the US has bought in to the idea. Seems hard to belive to me, what do other's think? I guess it doesn't matter until they fly.

Good thread on storm shadows capabilities
https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1...31264?s=20

Indeed a good source of info. I also think it relevant that the accuracy of the Storm Shadow as an ALCM is nominally better than that of an ATACMs is correct. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current open source literature about the actual accuracy of the "current" version of the ATACMs missile. What is undoubtedly true however is that the US doesn't have a lot of these missiles and IMO that has really increased the army's reluctance to part with them. The Precision Strike Missile program (and the associated requirements back and forth) has "overhung" the existing ATACMs for way too long. This is an example of, among other things, "the prefect being the enemy of good enough".

There are a couple of things that do need to be considered for both longer range weapons. One that I have mentioned before is the effect of GPS jamming on accuracy. What the real situation in Ukraine is in this regard I don't know but it does sound like this is a big problem that can get bigger. You can bet that all significant Russian air bases have GPS jammers. The second is that ALCMs are not very good against time-sensitive targets unless you have aircraft "stacked" for such tasking.

The time it takes to plan the mission, fuel and arm the aircraft, get in the air and launch the missile is much greater than communicating the target coordinates to the ATACMs battery who then shoots. The US found this to be true in Iraq. The first takes a few hours, the second less than 15 minutes. In many cases, that matters. Of course, the USAF "solved" that by stacking aircraft that could be tasked in "near real time". It was still slower than the ATACMs, but not as much. Of course, they couldn't do this 24/7. Consumed too many assets that often didn't do anything. OTOH, if there was no ATACMs within range of the target of opportunity, the air launched missile was the only option. Thus the need for the extended range precision strike missile.