[Farm93]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-u-health...48196.html

This is an interesting and IMHO balanced review of the events in the early stages of the epidemic and how it was viewed in the USA. It isn't reassuring in that it shows how easy it is to be wrong when predicting an epidemic. However, I think it does highlight the reality of the problems.

It's a good article, but suffers from the same exasperating tendency to focus on the US exclusively.

Ten months ago I took a look at the timelines in other Western nations, and was interested to learn that the pattern of events was almost identical- relative optimism throughout January, rising concern during February, and either institutional alarm or panic (take your pick) in the first ten days of March. The United States was neither ahead nor behind the curve at the time. (Sharp criticism of policy is better directed at decisions made after March.) This was unexpectedly controversial, I think because of Presidential politics, but the pattern was just about universal. at the outset, everyone moved in lockstep, and slow motion, because no one had different information.

I've mentioned before that it is a mistake to write history too early, and I'll stick with that. However, my intuition is that covid was viewed as a 'normal' seasonal flu  throughout January by most experts (including Fauci), manageable by conventional means. What changed in February, I think, was the clinical experience in Italy, which sent alarm bells out all over the world. That data was duly noted by experts in the various nations, and the identical pattern of response reflects the mundane fact that the data was overwhelming.

With Presidential politics now receding, it seems to me timely to ask why the experience of a Western nation was necessary to call attention to this crisis. I think it is more than timely to examine what information China shared and didn't share, and why the WHO was so sanguine late into January. It's not going to help Trump now to take a hard look on how this plague was unleashed on the entire world with so little warning

GR- Timely to examine anything now?  No

Let's wait until January 21 2021.  Then those in either party that have not been retweeting election conspiracy theories the last 5 weeks can work together to assess what exactly happened in the USA. 

I really don't care what China did or didn't do in terms of communication.   Using the latest GOP position on China, we should view China as the greatest threat to the USA.  If true they are unlikely to share information on new novel viruses that could do as much damage to the USA's position in economics and geopolitical politics as COVID-19.

However, the Pac Rim nations weren't so naive about what happened in China and were taking decisive action in late January and early February.   As many of those countries are our allies it probably makes sense to understand what they saw in January and February rather than imagine a world where China communicates openly about potential pandemics that would then allow the USA and Western European nations to maintain their global standing.

[Farm93]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-u-health...48196.html

This is an interesting and IMHO balanced review of the events in the early stages of the epidemic and how it was viewed in the USA. It isn't reassuring in that it shows how easy it is to be wrong when predicting an epidemic. However, I think it does highlight the reality of the problems.

It's a good article, but suffers from the same exasperating tendency to focus on the US exclusively.

Ten months ago I took a look at the timelines in other Western nations, and was interested to learn that the pattern of events was almost identical- relative optimism throughout January, rising concern during February, and either institutional alarm or panic (take your pick) in the first ten days of March. The United States was neither ahead nor behind the curve at the time. (Sharp criticism of policy is better directed at decisions made after March.) This was unexpectedly controversial, I think because of Presidential politics, but the pattern was just about universal. at the outset, everyone moved in lockstep, and slow motion, because no one had different information.

I've mentioned before that it is a mistake to write history too early, and I'll stick with that. However, my intuition is that covid was viewed as a 'normal' seasonal flu  throughout January by most experts (including Fauci), manageable by conventional means. What changed in February, I think, was the clinical experience in Italy, which sent alarm bells out all over the world. That data was duly noted by experts in the various nations, and the identical pattern of response reflects the mundane fact that the data was overwhelming.

With Presidential politics now receding, it seems to me timely to ask why the experience of a Western nation was necessary to call attention to this crisis. I think it is more than timely to examine what information China shared and didn't share, and why the WHO was so sanguine late into January. It's not going to help Trump now to take a hard look on how this plague was unleashed on the entire world with so little warning

GR- Timely to examine anything now?  No

Let's wait until January 21 2021.  Then those in either party that have not been retweeting election conspiracy theories the last 5 weeks can work together to assess what exactly happened in the USA. 

I really don't care what China did or didn't do in terms of communication.   Using the latest GOP position on China, we should view China as the greatest threat to the USA.  If true they are unlikely to share information on new novel viruses that could do as much damage to the USA's position in economics and geopolitical politics as COVID-19.

However, the Pac Rim nations weren't so naive about what happened in China and were taking decisive action in late January and early February.   As many of those countries are our allies it probably makes sense to understand what they saw in January and February rather than imagine a world where China communicates openly about potential pandemics that would then allow the USA and Western European nations to maintain their global standing.