Some Perspective on the Recent Past

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Some Perspective on the Recent Past - Goose - 12-21-2020

https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-u-health-experts-underestimated-221548196.html

This is an interesting and IMHO balanced review of the events in the early stages of the epidemic and how it was viewed in the USA. It isn't reassuring in that it shows how easy it is to be wrong when predicting an epidemic. However, I think it does highlight the reality of the problems.

RE: Some Perspective on the Recent Past - Genuine Realist - 12-22-2020

(12-21-2020, 05:10 PM)Goose Wrote: https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-u-health-experts-underestimated-221548196.html

This is an interesting and IMHO balanced review of the events in the early stages of the epidemic and how it was viewed in the USA. It isn't reassuring in that it shows how easy it is to be wrong when predicting an epidemic. However, I think it does highlight the reality of the problems.

It's a good article, but suffers from the same exasperating tendency to focus on the US exclusively.

Ten months ago I took a look at the timelines in other Western nations, and was interested to learn that the pattern of events was almost identical- relative optimism throughout January, rising concern during February, and either institutional alarm or panic (take your pick) in the first ten days of March. The United States was neither ahead nor behind the curve at the time. (Sharp criticism of policy is better directed at decisions made after March.) This was unexpectedly controversial, I think because of Presidential politics, but the pattern was just about universal. at the outset, everyone moved in lockstep, and slow motion, because no one had different information.

I've mentioned before that it is a mistake to write history too early, and I'll stick with that. However, my intuition is that covid was viewed as a 'normal' seasonal flu throughout January by most experts (including Fauci), manageable by conventional means. What changed in February, I think, was the clinical experience in Italy, which sent alarm bells out all over the world. That data was duly noted by experts in the various nations, and the identical pattern of response reflects the mundane fact that the data was overwhelming.

With Presidential politics now receding, it seems to me timely to ask why the experience of a Western nation was necessary to call attention to this crisis. I think it is more than timely to examine what information China shared and didn't share, and why the WHO was so sanguine late into January. It's not going to help Trump now to take a hard look on how this plague was unleashed on the entire world with so little warning

RE: Some Perspective on the Recent Past - Farm93 - 12-22-2020

(12-22-2020, 09:52 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:
(12-21-2020, 05:10 PM)Goose Wrote: https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-u-health-experts-underestimated-221548196.html

This is an interesting and IMHO balanced review of the events in the early stages of the epidemic and how it was viewed in the USA. It isn't reassuring in that it shows how easy it is to be wrong when predicting an epidemic. However, I think it does highlight the reality of the problems.
It's a good article, but suffers from the same exasperating tendency to focus on the US exclusively.

Ten months ago I took a look at the timelines in other Western nations, and was interested to learn that the pattern of events was almost identical- relative optimism throughout January, rising concern during February, and either institutional alarm or panic (take your pick) in the first ten days of March. The United States was neither ahead nor behind the curve at the time. (Sharp criticism of policy is better directed at decisions made after March.) This was unexpectedly controversial, I think because of Presidential politics, but the pattern was just about universal. at the outset, everyone moved in lockstep, and slow motion, because no one had different information.

I've mentioned before that it is a mistake to write history too early, and I'll stick with that. However, my intuition is that covid was viewed as a 'normal' seasonal flu throughout January by most experts (including Fauci), manageable by conventional means. What changed in February, I think, was the clinical experience in Italy, which sent alarm bells out all over the world. That data was duly noted by experts in the various nations, and the identical pattern of response reflects the mundane fact that the data was overwhelming.

With Presidential politics now receding, it seems to me timely to ask why the experience of a Western nation was necessary to call attention to this crisis. I think it is more than timely to examine what information China shared and didn't share, and why the WHO was so sanguine late into January. It's not going to help Trump now to take a hard look on how this plague was unleashed on the entire world with so little warning

GR- Timely to examine anything now? No

Let's wait until January 21 2021. Then those in either party that have not been retweeting election conspiracy theories the last 5 weeks can work together to assess what exactly happened in the USA.

I really don't care what China did or didn't do in terms of communication. Using the latest GOP position on China, we should view China as the greatest threat to the USA. If true they are unlikely to share information on new novel viruses that could do as much damage to the USA's position in economics and geopolitical politics as COVID-19.

However, the Pac Rim nations weren't so naive about what happened in China and were taking decisive action in late January and early February. As many of those countries are our allies it probably makes sense to understand what they saw in January and February rather than imagine a world where China communicates openly about potential pandemics that would then allow the USA and Western European nations to maintain their global standing.

RE: Some Perspective on the Recent Past - Genuine Realist - 12-22-2020

(12-22-2020, 10:25 AM)Farm93 Wrote:
(12-22-2020, 09:52 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:
(12-21-2020, 05:10 PM)Goose Wrote: https://www.yahoo.com/news/many-u-health-experts-underestimated-221548196.html

This is an interesting and IMHO balanced review of the events in the early stages of the epidemic and how it was viewed in the USA. It isn't reassuring in that it shows how easy it is to be wrong when predicting an epidemic. However, I think it does highlight the reality of the problems.
It's a good article, but suffers from the same exasperating tendency to focus on the US exclusively.

Ten months ago I took a look at the timelines in other Western nations, and was interested to learn that the pattern of events was almost identical- relative optimism throughout January, rising concern during February, and either institutional alarm or panic (take your pick) in the first ten days of March. The United States was neither ahead nor behind the curve at the time. (Sharp criticism of policy is better directed at decisions made after March.) This was unexpectedly controversial, I think because of Presidential politics, but the pattern was just about universal. at the outset, everyone moved in lockstep, and slow motion, because no one had different information.

I've mentioned before that it is a mistake to write history too early, and I'll stick with that. However, my intuition is that covid was viewed as a 'normal' seasonal flu throughout January by most experts (including Fauci), manageable by conventional means. What changed in February, I think, was the clinical experience in Italy, which sent alarm bells out all over the world. That data was duly noted by experts in the various nations, and the identical pattern of response reflects the mundane fact that the data was overwhelming.

With Presidential politics now receding, it seems to me timely to ask why the experience of a Western nation was necessary to call attention to this crisis. I think it is more than timely to examine what information China shared and didn't share, and why the WHO was so sanguine late into January. It's not going to help Trump now to take a hard look on how this plague was unleashed on the entire world with so little warning

GR- Timely to examine anything now? No

Let's wait until January 21 2021. Then those in either party that have not been retweeting election conspiracy theories the last 5 weeks can work together to assess what exactly happened in the USA.

I really don't care what China did or didn't do in terms of communication. Using the latest GOP position on China, we should view China as the greatest threat to the USA. If true they are unlikely to share information on new novel viruses that could do as much damage to the USA's position in economics and geopolitical politics as COVID-19.

However, the Pac Rim nations weren't so naive about what happened in China and were taking decisive action in late January and early February. As many of those countries are our allies it probably makes sense to understand what they saw in January and February rather than imagine a world where China communicates openly about potential pandemics that would then allow the USA and Western European nations to maintain their global standing.

I do believe the Pacific Rim nations were using SARS protocols because of the disasters they suffered in the last half-decade. The West was not so lucky. But this is what I mean by writing history too early.

Never mind the GOP or the Democrats. If China unleashed this monster due to bureaucratic inertia or national embarrassment, with the millions of death, trillions in economic damage, and all the rest, it should be held accountable. You don't let that nation off the hook on the basis of some partisan bias or another. Misplaced priorities.

RE: Some Perspective on the Recent Past - Goose - 12-22-2020

(12-22-2020, 12:55 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: If China unleashed this monster due to bureaucratic inertia or national embarrassment, with the millions of death, trillions in economic damage, and all the rest, it should be held accountable. You don't let that nation off the hook on the basis of some partisan bias or another. Misplaced priorities.

As you are undoubtedly aware, more and more data is suggesting that the virus was widely spread well before Wuhan became the poster child of the epidemic. This is a good example illustrating your "too soon to know" argument, which I think has lots of merit. That said, it is difficult to imagine how one can hold any nation "accountable" for errors in judgement or even for policies detrimental to other nations. We don't hold China "accountable" for human rights abuses, or the 5 dash line or violating their agreements regarding Honk Kong. What can we do, declare war, a naval blockade? If everything a nation did that was "stupid" was punished by the world community where would any of us be? And who would decide?

RE: Some Perspective on the Recent Past - Genuine Realist - 12-23-2020

(12-22-2020, 09:18 PM)Goose Wrote:
(12-22-2020, 12:55 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: If China unleashed this monster due to bureaucratic inertia or national embarrassment, with the millions of death, trillions in economic damage, and all the rest, it should be held accountable. You don't let that nation off the hook on the basis of some partisan bias or another. Misplaced priorities.

As you are undoubtedly aware, more and more data is suggesting that the virus was widely spread well before Wuhan became the poster child of the epidemic. This is a good example illustrating your "too soon to know" argument, which I think has lots of merit. That said, it is difficult to imagine how one can hold any nation "accountable" for errors in judgement or even for policies detrimental to other nations. We don't hold China "accountable" for human rights abuses, or the 5 dash line or violating their agreements regarding Honk Kong. What can we do, declare war, a naval blockade? If everything a nation did that was "stupid" was punished by the world community where would any of us be? And who would decide?

I am aware of the data you mention. No one in his right mind would suggest that the case against China is proven, or even that a prima facie case can be made. But there is good reason to investigate further. This whole subject has been warped by Presidential politics, in that a brobdingnagian number of American intelligentsia hoped that mishandling of covid would be the final straw with Trump, which indeed it proved to be. But the fact that there is plenty of reason to blame Trump does not mean that we should not inquire - and there is substantial basis for inquiry. Let me summarize.

(a) Although there is data that indicates the virus was widespread, the first outbreak reported in large terms was in Wuhan in December of 2019. The first reports were that it had originated out of a live animal market there. This was the conventional view through the first two months of the outbreak.

Maybe that's not so . . . but are you or anyone aware of any other locus of infection? Somewhere in Hungary or elsewhere? I'm not. So I will begin with the Ockham's Razor notion that the virus probably originates in close conjunction with the first serious contagious event - and that is in Wuhan in December 2019. Correct me if I'm wrong.

(b) There is also the behavior of the Chinese government. First, there is the censorship and repression of Dr. Li Wenliang, whose death made him an international hero. The government attempted to the doctor's attempt to warn the larger world of how dangerous and difficult the virus was. I'm a career criminal justice professional, both public defender and DA. In my neck of the woods, I'd describe the behavior as exhibiting consciousness of guilt. What the hell is there to censor if there isn't some responsibility? I would like either confirm or negate some Chernobyl hypothesis, that what happened was some junior apparatchik goofing up, then becoming more concerned with obscuring his or her responsibility than dealing with the crisis, then the next, and next rising levels of incompetence, until finally the whole government is compromised, and more interested in avoiding embarrassment than preventing the deaths of millions of people and massive social dislocation. (One of the ironies about worry about anti-Chinese prejudice in this area is that I know a ton of Chinese emigres - and not one of them has anything but contempt for that government.) That's the classic 'greater good' rationalization that has been core to much Communist wrongdoing.

© There is also the Chinese dis- or misinformation to the World Health Organization. The specific point was the denial well into January that human-to-human transmission was possible. I am posting the WHO timeline, by the WHO itself, here. Critically, China denied human transmission of thevirus had occurred, and I believe it was for sounding the alarm on that, that Wenliang was politically targeted. That deliberate distortion put every health agency in the world off-guard.

It also withheld the virus gene sequencing until mid-January.

Why do these things if the virus originated elsewhere? If the Chinese government was not responsible?

(d) I don't consider this water under the bridge. The damage to human society has been incalculable. There are more dead than during the Armenian genocide. The consequences are going to reverberate for decades. If a person or persons is responsible, I'd like to see them identified. The case against China is by no means conclusive, but it exists, it has a rational basis,, and I'd like to see it examined in detail. I don't think racial or cultural sensitivity should deter an investigation, any more than it did with any others. In fact, it seems to me that willful disinterest in the subject is more likely to lead to xenophobia than a thoughtful investigation.

RE: Some Perspective on the Recent Past - BostonCard - 12-27-2020

This will add fuel to the fire that China is still hiding things...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus-citizen-journalist.html

Quote:Ms. Zhang’s prosecution is part of the Chinese Communist Party’s continuing campaign to recast China’s handling of the outbreak as a succession of wise, triumphant moves by the government. Critics who have pointed to officials’ early missteps have been arrested, censored or threatened by police; three other citizen journalists disappeared from Wuhan before Ms. Zhang did, though none of the rest has been publicly charged.

I have been critical of our own response, but at least we all have the freedom to be critical. In China I would have long ago been arrested.

BC