04-10-2020, 12:13 AM
It really looks like SCC growth rate is pretty darn close to 1.0.
From the testing results:
(March 25) 70, 52, 76, 68, 51, 50, 73, 61, 54, 45, 51, 47, 63 (April 6)
We're 4x the incubation period since the start of shelter-in-place.
There might be a small downslope, but not much. I know SCC is a small sample compared to the whole country, but SCC has a lead on much of the country. 2M population is not that small a number.
At 1.0, with the current shelter-in-place restrictions, what can be done to reduce the incidence?
Mask usage may help - I hope it does but I will be surprised if it is a silver bullet. The numbers that were out before this epidemic suggested it may reduce flu infections by a half. But the flu was a different beast.
Warmer weather may help. I've seen as many studies saying no as saying yes. If it does help, we'll get enough of a break that we'll be in a vulnerable position when it hits again. The time delays would mean that we'll react late and a number of people will die.
At 50 symptomatic cases a day, that's about 2 deaths a day in SCC, with a modest estimate of 4% CFR (S. Korea is 1.8%, China, as a country, is 4%, some other places are much higher)
Drop the shelter-in-place and we're quickly back to exponential growth, but not starting at 1.
Some here seem to think that a lot of asymptomatic cases are good because it lowers the IFR. But it doesn't lower the number of symptomatic cases or deaths. Suppose the IFR is 0.5%. 0.5% of the US population is 1.65 Million. 0.9%? 3M. That's one way to lower the unemployment rate.
At this time, we don't know whether the asymptomatic cases have immunity, or whether they'll have worse problems with the disease later. And we don't know if the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic is the same for all ages.
From the testing results:
(March 25) 70, 52, 76, 68, 51, 50, 73, 61, 54, 45, 51, 47, 63 (April 6)
We're 4x the incubation period since the start of shelter-in-place.
There might be a small downslope, but not much. I know SCC is a small sample compared to the whole country, but SCC has a lead on much of the country. 2M population is not that small a number.
At 1.0, with the current shelter-in-place restrictions, what can be done to reduce the incidence?
Mask usage may help - I hope it does but I will be surprised if it is a silver bullet. The numbers that were out before this epidemic suggested it may reduce flu infections by a half. But the flu was a different beast.
Warmer weather may help. I've seen as many studies saying no as saying yes. If it does help, we'll get enough of a break that we'll be in a vulnerable position when it hits again. The time delays would mean that we'll react late and a number of people will die.
At 50 symptomatic cases a day, that's about 2 deaths a day in SCC, with a modest estimate of 4% CFR (S. Korea is 1.8%, China, as a country, is 4%, some other places are much higher)
Drop the shelter-in-place and we're quickly back to exponential growth, but not starting at 1.
Some here seem to think that a lot of asymptomatic cases are good because it lowers the IFR. But it doesn't lower the number of symptomatic cases or deaths. Suppose the IFR is 0.5%. 0.5% of the US population is 1.65 Million. 0.9%? 3M. That's one way to lower the unemployment rate.
At this time, we don't know whether the asymptomatic cases have immunity, or whether they'll have worse problems with the disease later. And we don't know if the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic is the same for all ages.