SC County reports 85 new cases today - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: SC County reports 85 new cases today (/thread-19229.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: Emergency (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-11.html)
+--- Forum: Covid-19 (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-12.html)
+--- Thread: SC County reports 85 new cases today (/thread-19229.html)
SC County reports 85 new cases today - chrisk - 03-25-2020
by far the highest daily count yet, with the new total 459
Only 1 new death reported, for a total of 17
On the other hand, San Mateo County reported only 4 new cases today
The per capita totals for the counties are not so extreme. It will be interesting to see how the next few days go.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - Snorlax94 - 03-25-2020
I know it was expected but still,
:(
A quote from the accompanying article in the Mercury News:
“
Quote:Dr. Sara Cody, the county’s director of public health, addressed the Board of Supervisors in a meeting Tuesday and said the expectation is the case number will continue to climb.
“Our case counts are rising and we anticipate they will continue to do so,” Cody said. “It’s hard to understand where we are in the epidemic curve for a number of reasons.”
Case numbers in other Bay Area counties are also expected to continue increasing as testing becomes more readily acailable.”
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-3-new-covid-19-deaths-in-santa-clara-county-375-total-cases/
————-
Separately, someone we know told my wife she started feeling sick about two weeks ago with mild symptoms and “finally” was able to be tested and texted us to let us know after she got her positive test result (we last saw her 4 weeks ago and have had no symptoms, so I think we are in the clear in respect to that interaction).
So, based on the incredibly valid sample size of 1, in this one anecdotal case they are still processing/getting around to testing people who felt sick before the lockdown
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - M T - 03-25-2020
The SCC website says the total is 459. The wikimedia page tracking this (for the graph) indicates that's 84 new today, vs 73 new yesterday and 67 two days before that. (The 67 was pretty clearly caused by a delay in reporting test results as the day before it was unusually low.)
Unfortunately, when viewed on a log scale (dropping the data into a spreadsheet), that graph doesn't show any downturn yet. The number of cases (or hospitalizations) is doubling a little less than 5 days.
| Date | Positives | Hospitalized |
|---|---|---|
| March 9 | 43 | ? |
| March 14 | 91 | 38 |
| March 19 | 196 | 65 |
| March 24 | 459 | 137 |
The bad news is that SCC is finding just 12% 67% of the expected number of symptomatic cases, based on hospitalizations.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - BostonCard - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 07:46 PM)M T Wrote: The bad news is that SCC is still finding just 12% of the expected number of symptomatic cases, based on hospitalizations.
My impression was that ~20% of symptomatic cases required hospitalization. With 137 hospitalizations, you'd expect 685 total cases, and they've found 459 (about 2/3). Based on deaths and assuming a naive CFR of 2%, you'd expect about 850 cases, of which they have found 459 (a little over half). These are, of course, estimates, but they don't suggest a massive undercount of cases.
BC
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - M T - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 08:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(03-25-2020, 07:46 PM)M T Wrote: The bad news is that SCC is still finding just 12% of the expected number of symptomatic cases, based on hospitalizations.
My impression was that ~20% of symptomatic cases required hospitalization. With 137 hospitalizations, you'd expect 685 total cases, and they've found 459 (about 2/3). Based on deaths and assuming a naive CFR of 2%, you'd expect about 850 cases, of which they have found 459 (a little over half). These are, of course, estimates, but they don't suggest a massive undercount of cases.
BC
You're absolutely right. I screwed up. (I reloaded the data from the website into a spreadsheet, but I had swapped columns so the wrong numbers went into the calculation.)
Using the correct data, and as BC calculated, today's confirmed cases are 67% of the estimate of symptomatic cases from hospitalizations. Personally, I'd stay away from estimating the symptomatic cases from the deaths because of the uncertainty of the demographics involved, and the relatively small number of deaths.
That percentage has been noisy but does seem to be coming up. 67% is the highest percentage reported so far. SCC may be getting through the log jam of testing.
SCC is now posting the age decades of the confirmed cases.
Los Altos reported its second case from retirement/rehab facilities (1 in each of two).
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - Snorlax94 - 03-25-2020
Some info from sfgate that yes, indeed, ca is finally testing more. The total # of people ever tested in CA increased 2.5X Wednesday, and now many more labs are online.
Quote:“As of Wednesday afternoon, the U.S. had tested 433,545 people for the coronavirus, according to the unofficial COVID Tracking Project, which aggregates available state data. That’s up from only 103,000 people tested six days ago, when much of the country was already sheltering in place.
However, nearly one-quarter of those tests were conducted in one state: New York. By contrast California, with double New York’s population, had reported tested only 27,000 people until Wednesday, when Gov. Gavin Newsom announced 66,800 total had been tested. It was unclear how many of those new tests were still pending.
California largely attributed the spike in testing to "commercial, provider and academic labs that have increased testing capacity and are now reporting that data to the state." The most recent numbers included 2,535 positive cases and 53 deaths.”
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-updates-California-cases-how-many-15156045.php
And more details from the cdph
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-033.aspx
(You can get a sense of the progress by comparing daily press releases on the cdhp site)
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - M T - 03-26-2020
I am reminded of the Chinese proverb: "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"
Today's new cases in Santa Clara County are 83, one less than the 84 yesterday!
Today's total is 542 confirmed. 154 hospitalized (suggesting 70% of the cases have been detected, the highest so far).
I'm cautiously optimistic! I believe this is a day earlier than I expected. It could be noise, but it could be the start of a signal. We'll see over the next few days.
(03-25-2020, 07:46 PM)M T Wrote: The SCC website says the total is 459. The wikimedia page tracking this (for the graph) indicates that's 84 new today, vs 73 new yesterday and 67 two days before that. (The 67 was pretty clearly caused by a delay in reporting test results as the day before it was unusually low.)
Unfortunately, when viewed on a log scale (dropping the data into a spreadsheet), that graph doesn't show any downturn yet. The number of cases (or hospitalizations) is doubling a little less than 5 days.
Date Positives Hospitalized March 9 43 ? March 14 91 38 March 19 196 65 March 24 459 137
The bad news is that SCC is finding just 12% 67% of the expected number of symptomatic cases, based on hospitalizations.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - Snorlax94 - 03-26-2020
According to the ca dept of public health press release from thur, of the 77,000+ tests conducted in CA, 57,000+ are pending results.
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-034.aspx
So, we have seen results for only about 1/4 of the tests conducted so far, never mind the new tests being run each day.
The % positive may decrease — by quadrupling the number tested, hopefully we are testing a lot more people with mild symptoms and maybe even contacts, but the # of positive tests could double or even quadruple as those test results come in. Although, assuming the # hospitalized doesn’t rocket correspondingly, hopefully the % hospitalized and cfr will drop.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - Mick - 03-27-2020
One of the Santa Clara County public health officials estimated 2,000 deaths by the end of May.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - M T - 03-27-2020
(03-27-2020, 05:14 AM)Mick Wrote: One of the Santa Clara County public health officials estimated 2,000 deaths by the end of May.
They declined to say how that estimate was made, saying a better estimate is being prepared.
Someone else suggested it assumes 10% of the county's 2M infected and 1% of those dying. The 1% could be justified. I don't think there is any basis for say 10% vs 60% vs 5%.
Indeed, considering the SiP order, and that we know how many are hospitalized at the time that order begins to show up in the numbers, we can begin to estimate a tail on the number of infections from the experience elsewhere.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - BostonCard - 03-27-2020
I think a variant of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle stands; the act of estimating the severity of the outbreak affects the outbreak. That is, the worse the estimates of the number of sick and dead are, the stronger the measures taken to avert that outcome. The more moderate the estimate is, the less likely the measures will be to be taken, which puts things at risk for a worse outbreak.
Also, "all models are wrong, some models are useful" - George Box
BC
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - oldalum - 03-27-2020
(03-27-2020, 05:14 AM)Mick Wrote: One of the Santa Clara County public health officials estimated 2,000 deaths by the end of May.
The attribution is incorrect: the estimate was produced by a City of San Jose emergency management office.
"Santa Clara County public health officials stressed Thursday that they did not produce or review the city’s projections and said they are not prepared to make their own."
article
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - OutsiderFan - 03-27-2020
I saw a news report that said the City of San Jose predicted the 2,000 death number.
San Jose has 1,000,000 people. An 80% infection rate with a 2% CFR would mean 16,000 deaths, so even 1% would be 8,000. The 2,000 was the best case scenario with social distancing working really well. I know everyone is trying to make sense of inconsistent and unverified data, but 2,000 seems way too low to me based on my understanding of the lethality and transmission intensity of this virus.
That said, Santa Clara County put out a statement in response saying it doesn't stand by the San Jose number and is developing its own projections.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - M T - 03-27-2020
And, today, the new case count is 32, down 51 compared to yesterday.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's lower than it should be, but I think this does indicate the corner is being turned.
Unfortunately, the number of hospitalizations is no longer being reported. To those of us not yet sick, that's perhaps almost as important as deaths, and surely more important than the unreliable number of cases.
(03-26-2020, 06:02 PM)M T Wrote: I am reminded of the Chinese proverb: "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"
Today's new cases in Santa Clara County are 83, one less than the 84 yesterday!
Today's total is 542 confirmed. 154 hospitalized (suggesting 70% of the cases have been detected, the highest so far).
I'm cautiously optimistic! I believe this is a day earlier than I expected. It could be noise, but it could be the start of a signal. We'll see over the next few days.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - M T - 03-29-2020
And, Friday's new cases in SCC dropped to 17 ! Yeah!
San Francisco county dropped from 56 new cases Thursday to 29 on Friday.
New cases in California are starting to slow percentage-wise (from up 26% Thursday to up 22% Friday), presumably due to the Bay Area's early shelter-in-place order. The statewide order should start showing up in new case numbers on Monday.
(03-27-2020, 04:02 PM)M T Wrote: And, today, the new case count is 32, down 51 compared to yesterday.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's lower than it should be, but I think this does indicate the corner is being turned.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - oldalum - 03-29-2020
Santa Clara County is providing a "dashboard" with useful graphs and stats: SCC Dashboard
One thing I noticed from my male perspective: males comprise 53% of cases but 76% of deaths.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - baymeadows3408 - 03-29-2020
(03-29-2020, 08:16 AM)oldalum Wrote: Santa Clara County is providing a "dashboard" with useful graphs and stats: SCC Dashboard
One thing I noticed from my male perspective: males comprise 53% of cases but 76% of deaths.
I wonder if body mass and efficiency has anything to do with it. Larger people need more oxygen to stay alive, and men tend to be larger than women. The only way to see if this hypothesis might be correct would be to see if weight and mortality rates are positively correlated or to compare survival/mortality rates of patients of similar weight, regardless of sex.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - dabigv13 - 03-29-2020
Males in general will have higher rates of heart disease or lung disease, but it seems this holds even for younger and healthier patients so I think there is also some component of immune dysregulation.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - oldalum - 03-29-2020
nice article today in the Merc on Dr. Sara Cody and the history of the County's response to the virus. Interesting tidbit:
Quote:Back in the early 2000s, with the country on edge after 9/11, Cody, Smith and Fenstersheib led the health department’s effort to build Santa Clara County’s model for a massive, coordinated emergency response to a bioterrorism attack or pandemic that included social distancing, shutting schools and the most extreme, mandating that people stay home. It’s the one they would turn to this month to slow the untraceable path of this new disease known as COVID-19"
This may be in part why she led and coordinated the Bay Area's response.
RE: SC County reports 85 new cases today - BostonCard - 03-29-2020
Prior planning prevents piss poor performance.
BC