01-29-2012, 07:48 AM
(01-29-2012, 05:57 AM)MT link Wrote:...Very interesting stats and observations, MT.
I had thought this year's team would be nearly the quality of last year's team. At this point, I don't think so. We've got two great players, and a good player. We've got several possibilities for the other two positions, but no one has stepped up. Two weeks ago, I was in the 6th row at the Baylor-Texas game. Right now, I don't think we'd have much of a chance against Baylor.
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01:21 0:17 3PT attempt by Toni [? ? ?]
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When I looked at the plus/minus, I was surprised by the numbers:
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I'm afraid I agree on your pessimism for how we would do against the top teams at this point. As Tennessee struggles, our marquee win over Tennessee is turning out not to be such a good sign of strength. Then with highly competitive games at the University of South Central and at home against Oregon State we should have already received the proverbial "wake up call" before playing C.AL. With four injuries shrinking our depth, and Nneka possibly concealing some kind of issue this week (like Jayne Appel did for much of her senior year) the avid Stanford WBB fan has a lot to worry about!
I'm also growing concerned about guard play for next year. Whatever else one may say about Lindy, try to imagine how much worse the fatigue factor might have been in yesterday's game if we did not have her. Then keep in mind that she graduates and we have no guards in the incoming class. We have to hope that Jasmine and Alex recover fully from their injuries, that Sara James blossoms as a contributor, and that Toni and Amber avoid the injury plague. Just 5 of our 15 scholarships will be guards.
I had not noticed the pattern of poor clock management until you pointed it out. But I (and the whole section of fans next to me) did groan when Toni took that shot with 17 seconds on the shot clock. She must have been very confident she could make it--and if it goes in it might well have put the game away.
I'm not sure what to make of those interesting plus/minus figures. Obviously it is a much more holistic way to judge a player's contribution and may be one of the few statistical ways to make sure a player gets credit for her defensive contributions (along with everything else.) My guess is that the plus/minus is particularly sensitive to turnovers--each turnover, after all, could be a 4 point (or more) swing. This might help to explain why Taylor comes out so well--she had 0 turnovers and 4 assists. And Amber comes out badly because of her 3 turnovers in 10 minutes.Â
