[Goose]

In the past, other programs would pressure their recruits to commit early, but there was no visible "or else" deadline other than the Feb LOI date.  Now, the Dec early signing date gives those schools a precise indication of who is solid and who is not, and specific leverage to use against the unsigned recruits, since after the Dec date they know more completely how many and which type of holes they need to fill in Feb.  In other words, a more tangible threat to Stanford's "please wait until Feb before you make a final decision" pitch.

Fully agree here.

But a noticeable downturn that coincides with the first year an early signing period was installed cannot help but be seen as not anticipating the effects far enough in advance and, well, getting caught flatfooted.

It may be seen that way, but another possibility, which I think is actually what is true, is that even if you see it coming, there is really nothing Stanford can do about it without admitting athletes using a different process than regular students, which we will not (and possibly under NCAA rules cannot) do. This issue is a big problem for us, and there is no real good way to mitigate it. Other schools have the hammer, and they will use it.

[Goose]

In the past, other programs would pressure their recruits to commit early, but there was no visible "or else" deadline other than the Feb LOI date.  Now, the Dec early signing date gives those schools a precise indication of who is solid and who is not, and specific leverage to use against the unsigned recruits, since after the Dec date they know more completely how many and which type of holes they need to fill in Feb.  In other words, a more tangible threat to Stanford's "please wait until Feb before you make a final decision" pitch.

Fully agree here.

But a noticeable downturn that coincides with the first year an early signing period was installed cannot help but be seen as not anticipating the effects far enough in advance and, well, getting caught flatfooted.

It may be seen that way, but another possibility, which I think is actually what is true, is that even if you see it coming, there is really nothing Stanford can do about it without admitting athletes using a different process than regular students, which we will not (and possibly under NCAA rules cannot) do. This issue is a big problem for us, and there is no real good way to mitigate it. Other schools have the hammer, and they will use it.