[BostonCard]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17619.msg205180#msg205180 date=1507487346]
From ESPN's FPI:

Likely wins (> 90%):
OSU (94.8%)
ןɐɔ (90.7%)

Toss-ups favoring us (50 - 75%):
Oregon (71.6%)
Votre Dame (52.2%)
WSU (51.9%)

Toss-ups favoring opponent (25 - 50%):
UW (38.6%)

The numbers feel about right.  I would say that UW and WSU feel about 5 - 10 points high, while Oregon and Votre Dame feel about 5-10 points low.  But the bottom line is that there are two likely wins and four toss-ups left.

BC

Those analytics are again meaningless.  The same stats had oregon 66% vs wsu in win probability.  It also had us at a laughable 81% vs U$C
[/quote]

Probability means sometimes the less probable event happens.  Consider a baseball hitter hitting .300.  Just because that implies a 70% chance of not getting a hit doesn't mean the player is destined to never get a hit.  The FPI may or may not be miscalibrated, but I don't think it is meaningless.

BC

[BostonCard]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17619.msg205180#msg205180 date=1507487346]
From ESPN's FPI:

Likely wins (> 90%):
OSU (94.8%)
ןɐɔ (90.7%)

Toss-ups favoring us (50 - 75%):
Oregon (71.6%)
Votre Dame (52.2%)
WSU (51.9%)

Toss-ups favoring opponent (25 - 50%):
UW (38.6%)

The numbers feel about right.  I would say that UW and WSU feel about 5 - 10 points high, while Oregon and Votre Dame feel about 5-10 points low.  But the bottom line is that there are two likely wins and four toss-ups left.

BC

Those analytics are again meaningless.  The same stats had oregon 66% vs wsu in win probability.  It also had us at a laughable 81% vs U$C
[/quote]

Probability means sometimes the less probable event happens.  Consider a baseball hitter hitting .300.  Just because that implies a 70% chance of not getting a hit doesn't mean the player is destined to never get a hit.  The FPI may or may not be miscalibrated, but I don't think it is meaningless.

BC