Predicting the second half - Printable Version
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Predicting the second half - OutsiderFan - 10-08-2017
Alright, folks, after seeing one half of the season unfold with a 4-2 record that should arguably be 5-1, what are your thoughts on the rest of the season?
My guesses:
Oregon - W (Oregon has a QB disaster and a mediocre D)
@ OSU - W (hapless)
UW - L (Way better than Stanford on D, more potent O)
@ WSU - L (Way better than Stanford on D, more potent O)
×ÉÉ - W (Injury devastation on offense makes them too weak)
ND - L (Kind of a mirror image of Stanford; all run, no pass, but better D)
So Stanford should get to 6-2, and probably a Top 20-ish ranking in a couple Sundays from today. Then reality hits again. Two losses will leave Stanford at 6-4 going into the ×ÉÉ game which they will win. A 7-4 Stanford will face a quite possibly 7-4 ND in a game that will probably be pretty meaningless for both teams. Given ND runs the ball really well, they beat Stanford.
The culprit for the disappointing 7-5 season turns out not to be the QB as much as the DL/LBs, and their inability to stop the run, as many of us were worried about before the season started. This weakness also costs Bryce Love the H trophy.Â
Re: Predicting the second half - JohnR34231 - 10-08-2017
(10-08-2017, 07:16 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Alright, folks, after seeing one half of the season unfold with a 4-2 record that should arguably be 5-1, what are your thoughts on the rest of the season?
My guesses:
Oregon - W (Oregon has a QB disaster and a mediocre D)
@ OSU - W (hapless)
@ WSU - L (Way better than Stanford on D, more potent O)
UW - L (Way better than Stanford on D, more potent O)
×ÉÉ - W (Injury devastation on offense makes them too weak)
ND - L (Kind of a mirror image of Stanford; all run, no pass, but better D)
So Stanford should get to 6-2, and probably a Top 20-ish ranking in a couple Sundays from today. Then reality hits again. Two losses will leave Stanford at 6-4 going into the ×ÉÉ game which they will win. A 7-4 Stanford will face a quite possibly 7-4 ND in a game that will probably be pretty meaningless for both teams. Given ND runs the ball really well, they beat Stanford.
The culprit for the disappointing season turns out not to be the QB as much as the DL/LBs, and their inability to stop the run, as many of us were worried about before the season started. This weakness also costs Bryce Love the H trophy.
That certainly is the glass is half empty approach, but it definitely could happen.
I'm guessing we win at least one of Wash/WSU/ND to go 8-4 on the year, which is what I predicted earlier.
My original prediction was 9-3, but it didn't factor in a loss to SDSU.
P.S. I guess our definition of "meaningless" games is getting expanded from bowl games to regular season ones. As someone previously suggested, will we eventually use it for any game where we are out of contention for the CC, which would probably apply to every subsequent game if we lose to the Cougs.
Re: Predicting the second half - winflop - 10-08-2017
(10-08-2017, 07:23 AM)JPRI link Wrote:I'm guessing we win at least one of Wash/WSU/ND to go 8-4 on the year, which is what I predicted earlier.
My original prediction was 9-3, but it didn't factor in a loss to SDSU.
That's where I am as well. UW is at home, is before WSU, and comes after a bye week and Oregon State so our boys should be healthy and have a massive revenge chip on their shoulders after last year's blowout. I expect them to play their best game of the season but am not sure whether that will be enough. I'm not giving them much of a chance against WSU on the road, a short week, and right after UW. ND, like UW, is a toss-up. We should get one of those two but unlikely to get both I hope it's UW.
Finishing 7-2 in conference would be pretty damn nice and would likely put us in the Holiday Bowl.
Re: Predicting the second half - Goose - 10-08-2017
(10-08-2017, 07:55 AM)winflop link Wrote:That's where I am as well. UW is at home, is before WSU, and comes after a bye week and Oregon State so our boys should be healthy and have a massive revenge chip on their shoulders after last year's blowout. I expect them to play their best game of the season but am not sure whether that will be enough. I'm not giving them much of a chance against WSU on the road, a short week, and right after UW. ND, like UW, is a toss-up. We should get one of those two but unlikely to get both I hope it's UW.Seems reasonable. I am a bit more optimistic. I don't think ND is that good, and I think we get that one. I also give us a shot against WSU. We need to play very efficiently on offense to win, but I think WSU is partly doing it with mirrors on defense. Our run game should move the ball on them, they just aren't big enough up front to stop that. U$C was down three of their starting OL and almost beat them up there. We can do better. Our pass defense is improving as our linebackers seem to be getting home with the blitz a bit more. That leads to bad throws. WSU can't throw bubble screens all night and beat us. The will take shots down the field, and one mistake is all it takes.
Finishing 7-2 in conference would be pretty damn nice and would likely put us in the Holiday Bowl.
OTOH, Oregon could beat us next week ;D. At this point, I am still not sure what we have on offense besides Love. He isn't the whole story, but our passing game is pretty uneven. We have to become more efficient at moving the chains to really play "Stanford football".
Re: Predicting the second half - BostonCard - 10-08-2017
From ESPN's FPI:
Likely wins (> 90%):
OSU (94.8%)
Cal (90.7%)
Toss-ups favoring us (50 - 75%):
Oregon (71.6%)
Notre Dame (52.2%)
WSU (51.9%)
Toss-ups favoring opponent (25 - 50%):
UW (38.6%)
The numbers feel about right. I would say that UW and WSU feel about 5 - 10 points high, while Oregon and Notre Dame feel about 5-10 points low. But the bottom line is that there are two likely wins and four toss-ups left.
BC
Re: Predicting the second half - norcard - 10-08-2017
(10-08-2017, 11:29 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:From ESPN's FPI:
Likely wins (> 90%):
OSU (94.8%)
×ÉÉ (90.7%)
Toss-ups favoring us (50 - 75%):
Oregon (71.6%)
Votre Dame (52.2%)
WSU (51.9%)
Toss-ups favoring opponent (25 - 50%):
UW (38.6%)
The numbers feel about right. I would say that UW and WSU feel about 5 - 10 points high, while Oregon and Votre Dame feel about 5-10 points low. But the bottom line is that there are two likely wins and four toss-ups left.
BC
Those analytics are again meaningless. The same stats had oregon 66% vs wsu in win probability. It also had us at a laughable 81% vs usc
Re: Predicting the second half - 81alum - 10-08-2017
I'll guess 4-2, but only because my instinct says 3-3 and my instincts have consistently been too pessimistic over the years. I can see our offense getting even better, but our defense has not shown me enough to believe we can stop UW or WSU.Â
Re: Predicting the second half - BostonCard - 10-08-2017
(10-08-2017, 12:20 PM)norcard link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17619.msg205180#msg205180 date=1507487346]
From ESPN's FPI:
Likely wins (> 90%):
OSU (94.8%)
×ÉÉ (90.7%)
Toss-ups favoring us (50 - 75%):
Oregon (71.6%)
Votre Dame (52.2%)
WSU (51.9%)
Toss-ups favoring opponent (25 - 50%):
UW (38.6%)
The numbers feel about right. I would say that UW and WSU feel about 5 - 10 points high, while Oregon and Votre Dame feel about 5-10 points low. But the bottom line is that there are two likely wins and four toss-ups left.
BC
Those analytics are again meaningless. The same stats had oregon 66% vs wsu in win probability. It also had us at a laughable 81% vs U$C
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Probability means sometimes the less probable event happens. Consider a baseball hitter hitting .300. Just because that implies a 70% chance of not getting a hit doesn't mean the player is destined to never get a hit. The FPI may or may not be miscalibrated, but I don't think it is meaningless.
BC
Re: Predicting the second half - stupac2 - 10-08-2017
The other thing to remember is that every metric is going to be less well calibrated early in the season. And they don't usually take injuries into account. Oregon did well against WSU for a half, imagine if they hadn't lost half their team the week before...