[fullmetal]

I know $C is better than WMU.  I see a close U$C win.  I look at how the game progressed and how the scoring happened.  I see more low-probability scores on the part of WMU.  Hence I conclude that $C is better than the score indicates.

I think you've just tried to reword my conclusion into something else.  Is it really worth all this time to try to make me look wrong?  Fine, whatever.

As for "fluky play," I think any fan of football can agree that pick-sixes and whiffed tackles happen much more often than kickoff returns for TDs or double-pass QB reception trick plays.  Or are you really going to try to equate their frequencies?

[fullmetal]

I know $C is better than WMU.  I see a close U$C win.  I look at how the game progressed and how the scoring happened.  I see more low-probability scores on the part of WMU.  Hence I conclude that $C is better than the score indicates.

I think you've just tried to reword my conclusion into something else.  Is it really worth all this time to try to make me look wrong?  Fine, whatever.

As for "fluky play," I think any fan of football can agree that pick-sixes and whiffed tackles happen much more often than kickoff returns for TDs or double-pass QB reception trick plays.  Or are you really going to try to equate their frequencies?