[CTcard]

The "begging the question" aspect of this is that as you are describing it,m it appears your priors are coloring your interpretation of the observed result (a form of confirmation bias), although maybe you are describing more how the data is affecting your posteriors.

In my line of work we call it assuming the conclusion.

- I assume that $C is a much better team than WMU.
- That means I find that WMU's good plays are much more fluky than $C's good plays.
- I also assume that if there were more plays, then $C would continue to score more than WMU.
- Thus my analysis of the game is that it showed $C is a much better team than WMU.


[Of course $C did show they are a better team than WMU, they won the game and in the end were better than WMU in most aspects. However, it still is true that $C's performance vs WMU was less good than generally expected, providing at least one piece of data that $C might actually be less good than generally expected. And as noted, with a few particular issues that just might play to Stanford's strengths. ]

[CTcard]

The "begging the question" aspect of this is that as you are describing it,m it appears your priors are coloring your interpretation of the observed result (a form of confirmation bias), although maybe you are describing more how the data is affecting your posteriors.

In my line of work we call it assuming the conclusion.

- I assume that $C is a much better team than WMU.
- That means I find that WMU's good plays are much more fluky than $C's good plays.
- I also assume that if there were more plays, then $C would continue to score more than WMU.
- Thus my analysis of the game is that it showed $C is a much better team than WMU.


[Of course $C did show they are a better team than WMU, they won the game and in the end were better than WMU in most aspects. However, it still is true that $C's performance vs WMU was less good than generally expected, providing at least one piece of data that $C might actually be less good than generally expected. And as noted, with a few particular issues that just might play to Stanford's strengths. ]