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Seems odd to have that much certainty that Shittu and Martinez would've left. Anderson and Parry stayed -- and each of them, I'd argue, were more accomplished than Shittu and Martinez. They might've left...but on the other hand, they might not. That we missed out on the option value for a combined 5 tackles in 2012 seems like a poor allocation of resources.

You're right that's it's impossible to know what would have happened in an alternate universe.  Certainly, there are non-football factors in the decision.  For Shittu, I was mostly going by the fact that he reportedly was so adamant about burning his redshirt, which suggests that he never intended to stay for 5 years.  For Martinez, he has a strong enough draft profile that makes it unlikely that most people in that circumstance would choose stay, barring a strong personal reason. 

I suppose we can wait and see whether, and where, Martinez and Shittu end up being drafted to get a better sense of their decision-making criteria.  That's not precise either, however, because they don't know that information with certainty, even though they have a better sense than we have. 

As BC notes, Parry was not likely to be drafted in 2013.  He was solid as a redshirt junior, but did not even make honorable mention for the all-conference team.  He had never recorded a sack in his first 4 years in the program. 

Anderson was a bit of a special case because I think he (correctly) determined that he would go much higher in the 2014 NFL draft if he could prove that he had fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out for much of 2013.  I don't think Martinez or Shittu would be likely to go improve their stock with another year. 

Again, there may be a non-football reason for BM and AS to stay.  For someone who's set to graduate, however, there do tend to be more non-football reasons to leave, rather than stay.  If you're going to get a diploma AND get drafted in the NFL, there better be a darned good reason to give up that dream.  (Yes, I am assuming they dream of playing in the NFL.) 

[TrumpCard]

Seems odd to have that much certainty that Shittu and Martinez would've left. Anderson and Parry stayed -- and each of them, I'd argue, were more accomplished than Shittu and Martinez. They might've left...but on the other hand, they might not. That we missed out on the option value for a combined 5 tackles in 2012 seems like a poor allocation of resources.

You're right that's it's impossible to know what would have happened in an alternate universe.  Certainly, there are non-football factors in the decision.  For Shittu, I was mostly going by the fact that he reportedly was so adamant about burning his redshirt, which suggests that he never intended to stay for 5 years.  For Martinez, he has a strong enough draft profile that makes it unlikely that most people in that circumstance would choose stay, barring a strong personal reason. 

I suppose we can wait and see whether, and where, Martinez and Shittu end up being drafted to get a better sense of their decision-making criteria.  That's not precise either, however, because they don't know that information with certainty, even though they have a better sense than we have. 

As BC notes, Parry was not likely to be drafted in 2013.  He was solid as a redshirt junior, but did not even make honorable mention for the all-conference team.  He had never recorded a sack in his first 4 years in the program. 

Anderson was a bit of a special case because I think he (correctly) determined that he would go much higher in the 2014 NFL draft if he could prove that he had fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out for much of 2013.  I don't think Martinez or Shittu would be likely to go improve their stock with another year. 

Again, there may be a non-football reason for BM and AS to stay.  For someone who's set to graduate, however, there do tend to be more non-football reasons to leave, rather than stay.  If you're going to get a diploma AND get drafted in the NFL, there better be a darned good reason to give up that dream.  (Yes, I am assuming they dream of playing in the NFL.)