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evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - TrumpCard - 12-01-2015

Back in 2012, there were some complaints that Shaw burned too many redshirts.  As we reach the end of the line for the 2012 recruits who played as true freshman, it seems like as good a time as any to re-evaluate those decisions with the benefit of hindsight. 

Here are the guys who played as true freshmen: 
Whitfield--might well have returned, but probably would not have been a major upgrade over the remaining safeties (Reid, Edwards, Lloyd, Simmons, and Franklin)
Hoffpauir--left for MLB anyway
Madhu--retirement due to injury so would not have used eligibility anyway
Carter--left for the NFL after 3 years anyway
Martinez--first team all Pac-12 and likely draft pick.  Doubt he would have stayed.
Shittu--first team all Pac-12 and possible draft pick.  Doubt he would have stayed.  Others may disagree here.
Kaumatule--looks like he'll get the redshirt late and participate as a 5th year anyway.  Bigger issue was the TE experiment.
Peat--left for the NFL after 3 years anyway
Murphy--first team all Pac-12 and likely high draft pick.  Can't imagine he would have stayed.
Garnett--first team all Pac-12 and likely high draft pick.  Can't imagine he would have stayed.

My overall conclusion is that Stanford got more from having these guys participate as true freshmen than it would have gotten from taking the chance that they would be around for a 5th year.  (If Shittu or Martinez would have stayed, then that calculation is obviously wrong, but, as I said, I have my doubts about those two staying.)  I think the same was true for the redshirt decisions in the 2011 recruiting class.  Nevertheless, burning redshirts does have a cost sometimes.  For example, last year, I thought we could have used Wilkerson and Carrington, if not for Harbaugh's decision to burn their shirts in 2010.  Nevertheless, through two years of Shaw decisions, I have trouble finding much fault.  We'll talk about Owusu this time next year.


Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - stupac2 - 12-01-2015

We played that many freshman in 2012? Is that a Stanford record? How many have we played this year? I can only think of Meeks, Love, and Irwin, but I'm surely missing some.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:28 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:We played that many freshman in 2012? Is that a Stanford record? How many have we played this year? I can only think of Meeks, Love, and Irwin, but I'm surely missing some.

The ones I've personally noticed:

Meeks
Love
Irwin
Bailey
Branch
Reid
Edwards

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - washingtonismoney - 12-01-2015

Seems odd to have that much certainty that Shittu and Martinez would've left. Anderson and Parry stayed -- and each of them, I'd argue, were more accomplished than Shittu and Martinez. They might've left...but on the other hand, they might not. That we missed out on the option value for a combined 5 tackles in 2012 seems like a poor allocation of resources.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - BostonCard - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:34 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Seems odd to have that much certainty that Shittu and Martinez would've left. Anderson and Parry stayed -- and each of them, I'd argue, were more accomplished than Shittu and Martinez. They might've left...but on the other hand, they might not. That we missed out on the option value for a combined 5 tackles in 2012 seems like a poor allocation of resources.

Henry Anderson was a Pac-12 honorable mention in 2013.  David Parry not even that.  So of course they stayed.  As mentioned Shittu and Martinez were both first team all-Pac-12.  Still, I'm not sure they would leave for the NFL; there's imperfect correlation between all-conference play and NFL draft position.  It sure would be nice to have Shittu for another year, though given our projected line depth.

Oh well, no use crying over burned shirts.

BC

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - BobK - 12-01-2015

Great post Trump.

Leaving or not really has all to do with the individual, whom we don't know at all except their Football play.  Carter left early then got married as planned, did those here consider that a factor back when he declared for the draft?    So much we don't know,  it's not just about Football. 

BTW speaking of or not about Crap shots for going pro, AJ Tarpley got a sack Sunday 4th Qtr.  He was cut Yesterday. 

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - TrumpCard - 12-01-2015

(12-01-2015, 06:34 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Seems odd to have that much certainty that Shittu and Martinez would've left. Anderson and Parry stayed -- and each of them, I'd argue, were more accomplished than Shittu and Martinez. They might've left...but on the other hand, they might not. That we missed out on the option value for a combined 5 tackles in 2012 seems like a poor allocation of resources.

You're right that's it's impossible to know what would have happened in an alternate universe.  Certainly, there are non-football factors in the decision.  For Shittu, I was mostly going by the fact that he reportedly was so adamant about burning his redshirt, which suggests that he never intended to stay for 5 years.  For Martinez, he has a strong enough draft profile that makes it unlikely that most people in that circumstance would choose stay, barring a strong personal reason. 

I suppose we can wait and see whether, and where, Martinez and Shittu end up being drafted to get a better sense of their decision-making criteria.  That's not precise either, however, because they don't know that information with certainty, even though they have a better sense than we have. 

As BC notes, Parry was not likely to be drafted in 2013.  He was solid as a redshirt junior, but did not even make honorable mention for the all-conference team.  He had never recorded a sack in his first 4 years in the program. 

Anderson was a bit of a special case because I think he (correctly) determined that he would go much higher in the 2014 NFL draft if he could prove that he had fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him out for much of 2013.  I don't think Martinez or Shittu would be likely to go improve their stock with another year. 

Again, there may be a non-football reason for BM and AS to stay.  For someone who's set to graduate, however, there do tend to be more non-football reasons to leave, rather than stay.  If you're going to get a diploma AND get drafted in the NFL, there better be a darned good reason to give up that dream.  (Yes, I am assuming they dream of playing in the NFL.) 

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - TrumpCard - 01-04-2016

CBS Sports now has Shittu going in round 2-3.  That seems a bit high, but that projection does suggest that Shittu at least is a lock to be picked at some point in the draft.  You never know if he would have stayed an extra year if he still had eligibility, but most guys who can graduate and get drafted do tend to leave.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/DE

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - OutsiderFan - 01-04-2016

This is as good a place as any to bring this up, but I've noticed a trend in college football against 300 LB DL.  Alabama used to be synonymous wth brobdingnagian DL.  Not this year.  No 325+ plus NTs on the Alabama team now.  All leaner, quicker guys.  And so it is with Stanford with Scarlett, Shittu, and Thomas.  Those guys all are much quicker than the OL they are going up against in general.  Shittu's quickness will be appreciated at the next level, IMO.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - BostonCard - 01-04-2016

Shittu really helped himself with a monster performance against Iowa.

BC

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - CTcard - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 02:33 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Alabama used to be synonymous wth of exceedingly large proportions DL.  Not this year.  No 325+ plus NTs on the Alabama team now.  All leaner, quicker guys. 

Alabama does list seven DL on their roster >300lbs. That's versus our biggest guy at 285 - and he didn't play this year.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 02:33 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:This is as good a place as any to bring this up, but I've noticed a trend in college football against 300 LB DL.  Alabama used to be synonymous wth of exceedingly large proportions DL.  Not this year.  No 325+ plus NTs on the Alabama team now.  All leaner, quicker guys.  And so it is with Stanford with Scarlett, Shittu, and Thomas.  Those guys all are much quicker than the OL they are going up against in general.  Shittu's quickness will be appreciated at the next level, IMO.

No-huddle, tempo offenses make big bodied nose tackle types a liability.  The added girth is unnecessary, since teams aren't really trying to ram it down your throat anymore.  Meanwhile, a 330-lb NT typically isn't a 3-down, sideline to sideline player, which is what is needed to defend these spread teams.  In other words, the cons of being so big outweigh the pros in modern day college football.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - StannyBoy - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 02:33 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:This is as good a place as any to bring this up, but I've noticed a trend in college football against 300 LB DL.  Alabama used to be synonymous wth of exceedingly large proportions DL.  Not this year.  No 325+ plus NTs on the Alabama team now.  All leaner, quicker guys.  And so it is with Stanford with Scarlett, Shittu, and Thomas.  Those guys all are much quicker than the OL they are going up against in general.  Shittu's quickness will be appreciated at the next level, IMO.

Completely false.

NT: Darren Lake 315 lbs
DE: A'Shawn Robinson 312 lbs
DE: Jarran Reed 313 lbs

They are so good that Jonathan Allen is a back up and he could go in the first round this year as a junior. The other back up Tomlinson is also very highly regarded and almost 300 lbs. Former 5 star recruit Da'Shawn Hand is stuck as a 3rd stringer. Most of our DL would not even play at Bama.


Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - yvonne - 01-04-2016

I admit that my degrees are not in the hard sciences and the higher math is a mystery to me, but wuuuuuuuut?

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - BostonCard - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 03:09 PM)StannyBoy link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=13853.msg151084#msg151084 date=1451943236]
This is as good a place as any to bring this up, but I've noticed a trend in college football against 300 LB DL.  Alabama used to be synonymous wth of exceedingly large proportions DL.  Not this year.  No 325+ plus NTs on the Alabama team now.  All leaner, quicker guys.  And so it is with Stanford with Scarlett, Shittu, and Thomas.  Those guys all are much quicker than the OL they are going up against in general.  Shittu's quickness will be appreciated at the next level, IMO.

Completely false.

NT: Darren Lake 315 lbs
DE: A'Shawn Robinson 312 lbs
DE: Jarran Reed 313 lbs

They are so good that Jonathan Allen is a back up and he could go in the first round this year as a junior. The other back up Tomlinson is also very highly regarded and almost 300 lbs. Former 5 star recruit Da'Shawn Hand is stuck as a 3rd stringer. Most of our DL would not even play at Bama.
[/quote]

Your quoted weights are not incompatible with the statement that there are "No 325+ NTs on the Alabama team now."  The three starters you mentioned are all < 325 Lbs.

BC

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - fullmetal - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 02:38 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:Shittu really helped himself with a monster performance against Iowa.

BC

Who knew Iowa was a paper tiger of sorts?  But thanks to the CFP's exclusion of Stanford, the boys in cardinal came out looking NFL-ready with a satisfying statement win to end the season (and more fuel for the McCaffrey/Stanford-disrespected fire).  Hypothetically, we could have been pancaked against Clem-labama and finished with a bitter taste.  What a season.

During the game, my seatmate (also friend of mine) was lamenting the tough schedule next season and how we had to open with K-State.  I asked him what he thought K-State's players were thinking about opening with us on the schedule.

Can't wait for the Screw-The-Committee revenge tour, 2016 edition.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - dabigv13 - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 03:32 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=StannyBoy link=topic=13853.msg151099#msg151099 date=1451945357]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=13853.msg151084#msg151084 date=1451943236]
This is as good a place as any to bring this up, but I've noticed a trend in college football against 300 LB DL.  Alabama used to be synonymous wth of exceedingly large proportions DL.  Not this year.  No 325+ plus NTs on the Alabama team now.  All leaner, quicker guys.  And so it is with Stanford with Scarlett, Shittu, and Thomas.  Those guys all are much quicker than the OL they are going up against in general.  Shittu's quickness will be appreciated at the next level, IMO.

Completely false.

NT: Darren Lake 315 lbs
DE: A'Shawn Robinson 312 lbs
DE: Jarran Reed 313 lbs

They are so good that Jonathan Allen is a back up and he could go in the first round this year as a junior. The other back up Tomlinson is also very highly regarded and almost 300 lbs. Former 5 star recruit Da'Shawn Hand is stuck as a 3rd stringer. Most of our DL would not even play at Bama.
[/quote]

Your quoted weights are not incompatible with the statement that there are "No 325+ NTs on the Alabama team now."  The three starters you mentioned are all < 325 Lbs.

BC
[/quote]

More salient is that I doubt 325 lb DL were ever that common on Alabama or any other program. 315 lbers, of which Bama has several is plenty big as it is. Shittu may be drafted but I think he needs more weight to be a DL or more speed to be a DE, at least to be a starter.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - stupac2 - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 04:01 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:Who knew Iowa was a paper tiger of sorts?

Pretty much anyone who looked into it. Which isn't to say that I expected the epic beatdown that actually happened, but I was expecting us to win by at least one score.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - CTcard - 01-04-2016

(01-04-2016, 03:09 PM)StannyBoy link Wrote:Completely false.

NT: Darren Lake 315 lbs
DE: A'Shawn Robinson 312 lbs
DE: Jarran Reed 313 lbs

They are so good that Jonathan Allen is a back up and he could go in the first round this year as a junior. The other back up Tomlinson is also very highly regarded and almost 300 lbs. Former 5 star recruit Da'Shawn Hand is stuck as a 3rd stringer. Most of our DL would not even play at Bama.

Well, Lake has had one career start - their first game this year vs Middle Tennessee State. After that he was relegated to a back up role and played a reasonable amount but collected almost no stats (1 solo tackle, 2 assisted, no TFL).

It looks like Allen (283 lbs) and Payne (315) more or less traded off the starting NG role - though I think they rotated DL guys around like we did. Though in Bama's case that included rotating several guys in off the bench.

Their DL stat leaders were Reed (56 tackles, 4.5 TFL), Robinson (43 tackles, 7.5 TFL), and  Allen (36 tackles, 14.5 TFL, 12 sacks). 

I guess Allen is rather good at a relatively svelte 283 lbs, but that is still a little bigger than any of our DL guys.

Re: evaluating redshirt decisions in hindsight - CrazedZooChimp - 01-04-2016

(12-01-2015, 06:34 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Seems odd to have that much certainty that Shittu and Martinez would've left. Anderson and Parry stayed -- and each of them, I'd argue, were more accomplished than Shittu and Martinez. They might've left...but on the other hand, they might not. That we missed out on the option value for a combined 5 tackles in 2012 seems like a poor allocation of resources.

Weren't they both coming off injuries?  Or am I mixing up the years they were hurt?

The real question for Aziz is if he could have redshirted last year after the injury, would he have stayed.  An oft forgotten aspect of not redshirting a frosh who doesn't need it (ie. can contribute and might leave early) is that the redshirt can be used if there's an injury down the road, and sometimes injuries also cause guys to spend that extra year in school.  Brennan Scarlett is kind of an example of that.  Skov another obvious one.