[CTcard]

Here are the things that we know:

1) No undefeated P5 team will be left out. This is just how college football works.
2) No G5 team will get in. People found ways to leave Boise and TCU out all those times, they'll do the same with whoever's the equivalent this year.

Here are thing we think we know:

1) Winning your conference outright is a big boost (the "outright" part matters only to the Big 12).
2) A team with N losses will get in over a team with N+1 losses, regardless of the number of wins.
3) An SEC team with N losses will get in over all other N-loss teams.
4) An N-loss ND team will get in over most other N-loss teams.

On the things we think side, I would like to think that 3) and 4) depend upon the details. With the cfp committee, there really is nothing upon which to build any particular opinion. I wonder how much the general clamoring of the media actually affects these folks.

2) is also interesting. I think a properly functioning committee should violate this rule under appropriate circumstances. I suspect it won't happen if N=0. Last year, the most undeserving team was FSU, but it seems impossible to me that the committee could have left them out. But one loss versus two losses might be an interesting conversation under the right circumstances.

[CTcard]

Here are the things that we know:

1) No undefeated P5 team will be left out. This is just how college football works.
2) No G5 team will get in. People found ways to leave Boise and TCU out all those times, they'll do the same with whoever's the equivalent this year.

Here are thing we think we know:

1) Winning your conference outright is a big boost (the "outright" part matters only to the Big 12).
2) A team with N losses will get in over a team with N+1 losses, regardless of the number of wins.
3) An SEC team with N losses will get in over all other N-loss teams.
4) An N-loss ND team will get in over most other N-loss teams.

On the things we think side, I would like to think that 3) and 4) depend upon the details. With the cfp committee, there really is nothing upon which to build any particular opinion. I wonder how much the general clamoring of the media actually affects these folks.

2) is also interesting. I think a properly functioning committee should violate this rule under appropriate circumstances. I suspect it won't happen if N=0. Last year, the most undeserving team was FSU, but it seems impossible to me that the committee could have left them out. But one loss versus two losses might be an interesting conversation under the right circumstances.