[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13471.msg138949#msg138949 date=1446486821]
[quote author=CTcard link=topic=13471.msg138946#msg138946 date=1446486387]
If it were to end up that there were a bunch of 2-loss plus conference champs, we would have as much chance as anyone - assuming we were one of those.

Though the scenario is unlikely.

I think at this point it's vanishingly unlikely, there are just too many undefeated teams left for enough of them to implode.
[/quote]

Not necessarily.

Four of the Power 5 conferences have a playoff game. A two-loss team from one side of the bracket could upset a zero or one loss team from the other.

The ACC Coastal has one one-loss team, UNC. They could easily pick up another loss and could less-easily win the CCG.

The SEC seems quite plausible to have a two loss champ. Florida could pick up a loss to FSU ... and I guess it's not completely impossible they could lose to South Carolina on the road. On the other side, LSU could drop two of Alabama, Mississippi, Texas AM (all ranked) combined with Bama losing at Miss State or at Auburn (or to LSU if LSU loses the other two).

The math will make it tough for a two loss champ from either the Big Ten or the Big 12, but if there is a one loss Iowa Big Ten champ then I could imagine that their very weak schedule could drop them behind a two loss conference champ.


All in all not a likely situation, but the probability is not quite vanishingly small.[/quote]

I think the fact that you had to type that much invalidates your argument. The scenarios are getting pretty implausible pretty quickly and you need a few of them for Stanford to benefit. It's just not going to happen that the B1G, ACC, and SEC all have two-loss champions, and I think we'd need that, PLUS for our loss to not be against ND, for it to matter. What do you peg the odds of that at? It's gotta be less than 1%, and probably significantly less. Is it possible? Sure, but it's unlikely enough to write off.

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13471.msg138949#msg138949 date=1446486821]
[quote author=CTcard link=topic=13471.msg138946#msg138946 date=1446486387]
If it were to end up that there were a bunch of 2-loss plus conference champs, we would have as much chance as anyone - assuming we were one of those.

Though the scenario is unlikely.

I think at this point it's vanishingly unlikely, there are just too many undefeated teams left for enough of them to implode.
[/quote]

Not necessarily.

Four of the Power 5 conferences have a playoff game. A two-loss team from one side of the bracket could upset a zero or one loss team from the other.

The ACC Coastal has one one-loss team, UNC. They could easily pick up another loss and could less-easily win the CCG.

The SEC seems quite plausible to have a two loss champ. Florida could pick up a loss to FSU ... and I guess it's not completely impossible they could lose to South Carolina on the road. On the other side, LSU could drop two of Alabama, Mississippi, Texas AM (all ranked) combined with Bama losing at Miss State or at Auburn (or to LSU if LSU loses the other two).

The math will make it tough for a two loss champ from either the Big Ten or the Big 12, but if there is a one loss Iowa Big Ten champ then I could imagine that their very weak schedule could drop them behind a two loss conference champ.


All in all not a likely situation, but the probability is not quite vanishingly small.[/quote]

I think the fact that you had to type that much invalidates your argument. The scenarios are getting pretty implausible pretty quickly and you need a few of them for Stanford to benefit. It's just not going to happen that the B1G, ACC, and SEC all have two-loss champions, and I think we'd need that, PLUS for our loss to not be against ND, for it to matter. What do you peg the odds of that at? It's gotta be less than 1%, and probably significantly less. Is it possible? Sure, but it's unlikely enough to write off.