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Week 10 Rankings - indiancardinal - 11-02-2015

AP Poll: We dropped to 9th swapping places with Notre Dame. Is Temple better than Wazzu?

Coaches Poll: We remain at 8. No change.

ESPN Power Rankings: We drop 3 places to 10.

CFP committee rankings  come out in a day. Any predictions on where the committee will put us?

Re: Week 10 Rankings - Durty Nelly - 11-02-2015

TCU and Baylor have not played any games of note, and the rankings will reflect that.  I will go with ranked 6th.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - OutsiderFan - 11-02-2015

Top 10 1-loss Team A: Beat an unranked 4-3 team at home in perfect weather by 1 point.  The losing team missed three FGs and the winning team scored just 14 points.

Top 10 1-loss Team B: Beat an unranked 5-2 team on the road in a rain storm by 2 points after at one point trailing by 12 points.  The losing team made 5/6 FGs.

The narrative:  Team A has such a dominant defense, and that performance solidifies them as a top contender.  Team B got lucky to win because the opponent missed a FG as time expired that would have beat them. Team B showed they are overrated.

Interestingly enough, both Team A and Team B forced and recovered fumbles on the last possession of the game to seal the win.  Only Team B had the forced fumble and recovery overturned by replay, in a questionable reversal at best.

Those of you who pay attention to this stuff know Team A is Alabama and Team B is Stanford.  This is an example of how ESPN frames the discussion about these teams.  ESPN showed the Stanford highlights and never showed the forced fumble and controversial reversal, or the next hit and (what I thought was also a forced fumble), but they sure showed Stanford giving up the 4th and 7 completion and the missed FG.

Is Temple really better than Washington State?  Is Tennessee really better than Washington State?  I don't know.  But I do know Washington State, Tennessee, and Temple (the opponents Stanford, Alabama, and Notre Dame all barely beat in their last games) have all lost very close games and are arguably pretty equivalent to each other.  But poll voters saw Notre Dame end their game with a pick, Alabama with a recovered fumble, and Stanford end with an opponent missed FG.  So the order in which the highlights played out told the story that Stanford can't be better than Alabama or Notre Dame. 

All that said, my Top 10 rankings:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. LSU
4. TCU
5. Michigan State
6. Baylor
7. Notre Dame
8. Stanford
9. Alabama
10. Florida
11. Florida State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Utah
14. Memphis
15. Houston

Re: Week 10 Rankings - FarmBoy - 11-02-2015

In local Boston sports talk, an irate ND fan was complaining about Stanford being ranked ahead of UND despite being "stomped" by a mediocre NW team whereas ND lost to undefeated Clemson in a close game. I was pleased when the radio host cut him off and said any worry of this now is ridiculous and irrelevant as it will all be settled in a few weeks when the two teams play each other. I don't worry about our ranking vis a vis ND for the same reason. I do worry about our ranking vis a vis B1G and Big12 undefeated teams. Will we jump them if we win out and they lose 1 game? Having the Pac12 shut out of the championship would really suck in the year that we are the champ.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - OutsiderFan - 11-02-2015

There are so many games that have to be played to figure this all out.  Even now, it's a little too early.  As Ohio State showed last year, any 1 loss team of a power 5 conference has a shot, and probably no 2-loss team. 


Re: Week 10 Rankings - stupac2 - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 10:01 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:There are so many games that have to be played to figure this all out.  Even now, it's a little too early.  As Ohio State showed last year, any 1 loss team of a power 5 conference has a shot, and probably no 2-loss team.

Exactly. Gaming out the scenarios now is fun if you're into that sort of thing, I guess, but it's astonishingly pointless. We know that we don't have any chance whatsoever if we don't win out, and that we have a pretty good chance if we do win out. We know we're helped by chaos in every other conference, so we want to root for upsets in those games (like that matters much). We're big Ole Miss fans, and FSU fans at least this week. We should probably be rooting for Michigan to win out, and maybe Oklahoma too. Iowa doesn't worry me, they've played a super soft schedule and will get stomped in the B1G title game, hopefully by Michigan. I still maintain that we want ND to lose another game because them being in the playoff is so unpalatable and the difference between beating a 9-2 ND and a 10-1 ND isn't meaningful, but others can disagree there.

If you look at all the things that could happen to get us into the playoff, there are dozens of ways. The least likely part of any of them, though, is us winning out. If we win out the odds of enough of the other things happening to get us into the playoff are so high that it doesn't really seem worth worrying about.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - CTcard - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 10:13 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:... We know that we don't have any chance whatsoever if we don't win out, ...

Even this I don't think is completely true.

There have been years when there haven't been more than three Power conference champs with fewer than two losses. If it were to end up that there were a bunch of 2-loss plus conference champs, we would have as much chance as anyone - assuming we were one of those.

Though the scenario is unlikely.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - OutsiderFan - 11-02-2015

I think Stanford needs UDFG to be 10-1 and they will be 10-1 when Stanford plays them.  Would be the biggest and most meaningful game between these two schools ever.  Could be #4 vs. #5 or something like that.

And that means...

[b]STANFORD FANS DON'T SELL YOUR TICKETS TO THIS GAME - DON'T ALLOW UDFG FANS TO OWN THE PLACE!!![/b]
PROVIDE A REAL HOME FIELD ATMOSPHERE!!!

Re: Week 10 Rankings - stupac2 - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 10:46 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13471.msg138938#msg138938 date=1446484390]
... We know that we don't have any chance whatsoever if we don't win out, ...

Even this I don't think is completely true.

There have been years when there haven't been more than three Power conference champs with fewer than two losses. If it were to end up that there were a bunch of 2-loss plus conference champs, we would have as much chance as anyone - assuming we were one of those.

Though the scenario is unlikely.
[/quote]

I think at this point it's vanishingly unlikely, there are just too many undefeated teams left for enough of them to implode.

(11-02-2015, 10:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:I think Stanford needs UDFG to be 10-1 and they will be 10-1 when Stanford plays them.  Would be the biggest and most meaningful game between these two schools ever.  Could be #4 vs. #5 or something like that.

And that means...

[b]STANFORD FANS DON'T SELL YOUR TICKETS TO THIS GAME - DON'T ALLOW UDFG FANS TO OWN THE PLACE!!![/b]
PROVIDE A REAL HOME FIELD ATMOSPHERE!!!

Good luck with that. It won't be as bad as it sometimes is, but there will undoubtedly be a large contingent of ND fans.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - FarmBoy - 11-02-2015

Quote:Could be #4 vs. #5 or something like that.

In the words of David Shaw, that would be phenomenal. Seriously, how great would a top 5 match up be for that game? Even as it stands, the winner of that game will certainly have the inside track on 1-loss teams not from the SEC.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - thunder_chik - 11-02-2015

Re:  Undefeateds ahead of us - at least 2 of those teams will sustain a loss in the coming weeks.  Baylor faces off at TCU near the end of the season, and they both have to play #14 OK State.  LSU plays at Alabama on Saturday, and still has Ole Miss and Texas A&M on their schedule.  tOSU still has to play Michigan State and Michigan (at the Big House).
It's going to be interesting to see how the committee sorts out a whole slew of 1-loss teams.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - stupac2 - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 11:06 AM)thunder_chik link Wrote:It's going to be interesting to see how the committee sorts out a whole slew of 1-loss teams.

Not really. Only teams that win their conferences (and probably ND, grumble grumble) will be in consideration, barring some kind of super crazy finish.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - French Rage - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 11:13 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=13471.msg138954#msg138954 date=1446487587]It's going to be interesting to see how the committee sorts out a whole slew of 1-loss teams.

Not really. Only teams that win their conferences (and probably ND, grumble grumble) will be in consideration, barring some kind of super crazy finish.
[/quote]

I would think so.  If a conference, say, had an undefeated champ and another 1-loss team, be it the loser of the conference championship or from the same division, then I could see them both only getting in if everyone else from the other conferences had two losses.  Or something equally crazy.  For any scenario we might possibly care about this year, though, it would be a comparison of conference champions.  There's just too few spots to be picking anyone who isn't.  That said, when it was a two-team playoff they managed to pick two teams from the same division one year, so who knows what the rules are...

Re: Week 10 Rankings - Spiny_Norman - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 11:13 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=thunder_chik link=topic=13471.msg138954#msg138954 date=1446487587]It's going to be interesting to see how the committee sorts out a whole slew of 1-loss teams.

Not really. Only teams that win their conferences (and probably ND, grumble grumble) will be in consideration, barring some kind of super crazy finish.
[/quote]

Stupac is on target.  The Committee has a protocol for tiebreakers and it favors teams that win their conference championship:
Championships won
Strength of schedule
Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incentivizing margin of victory)

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14032925/how-college-football-playoff-committee-approach-first-rankings

Re: Week 10 Rankings - winflop - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 10:49 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:I think Stanford needs UDFG to be 10-1 and they will be 10-1 when Stanford plays them.  Would be the biggest and most meaningful game between these two schools ever.  Could be #4 vs. #5 or something like that.

And that means...

[b]STANFORD FANS DON'T SELL YOUR TICKETS TO THIS GAME - DON'T ALLOW UDFG FANS TO OWN THE PLACE!!![/b]
PROVIDE A REAL HOME FIELD ATMOSPHERE!!!

+1 bazillion

And if anyone has tickets they aren't going to use, I'm in the market for at least another pair.  PM me.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - FarmBoy - 11-02-2015

Wilner actually lays Stanford's path/status out pretty clearly: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/11/02/stanford-football-grading-the-week-and-preview-of-the-selection-committee-rankings/

Re: Week 10 Rankings - washingtonismoney - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 12:52 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Wilner actually lays Stanford's path/status out pretty clearly: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/11/02/stanford-football-grading-the-week-and-preview-of-the-selection-committee-rankings/

"Only one major injury to a starter so far" -- apparently Wilner missed the loss of Kevin Anderson... or for that matter the preseason injury to Cajuste ... or for that matter to Noor Davis, who might well have been the starter at ILB beside Martinez. Other than that, perfectly factually accurate.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - Spiny_Norman - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 12:52 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:Wilner actually lays Stanford's path/status out pretty clearly: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/11/02/stanford-football-grading-the-week-and-preview-of-the-selection-committee-rankings/

Sorry, FarmBoy.  Wilner just writes click bait as far as I am concerned.  I'll trust people like you to interpret for me, but I refuse to read any of his writing directly.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - OutsiderFan - 11-02-2015

Does Wilner think the WSU blue print for stopping Stanford includes rainy and windy conditions?  I do.  If any other team tries the WSU game plan, Hogan will make them pay in the pass game.  No way does Hooper play that poorly again this year either.

Re: Week 10 Rankings - stupac2 - 11-02-2015

(11-02-2015, 01:06 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:Sorry, FarmBoy.  Wilner just writes click bait as far as I am concerned.  I'll trust people like you to interpret for me, but I refuse to read any of his writing directly.

What? Why? I've been reading Wilner for a few years now and never gotten that impression.

(11-02-2015, 01:23 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Does Wilner think the WSU blue print for stopping Stanford includes rainy and windy conditions?  I do.  If any other team tries the WSU game plan, Hogan will make them pay in the pass game.  No way does Hooper play that poorly again this year either.

It rained this morning, for all we know some of our future games will be in those conditions. The El Nino rain isn't supposed to start until after xmas, but we're still in California's traditional rainy season.