[CTcard]

Creme has Stanford 4 and Princeton 5 but why?  Why not Princeton 4 and Stanford 5?  Princeton is undefeated and has an RPI better than ours and poll rankings better than us.  Yes, its competition was weaker but the RPI is still the RPI.

Creme also has North Carolina as a 5.  Why?  They beat us, their record is better, and their RPI is better.

Creme also has Mississippi State as a 5.  I agree with that.  They have a worse RPI than us, and they have lost to almost every ranked team they have played.

In short, I'm preparing to be disappointed, then I will celebrate I am am proved wrong.  Princeton and North Carolina are the teams most apt to knock us down to a 5.

I don't know the trends on the women's selections, but for the men the trend has been to pay less attention to the RPI (which is a terrible power rating) and pay more attention to quality wins.

Stanford has some quality wins: UConn (Creme 1 seed), ASU (Creme 3 seed), c.a.l. x 2 (Creme 4 seed), OSU (Creme 3 seed), UW x 2 (Creme 6 seed). [7 vs 6 seed or better]
Princeton doesn't really have any - I think they have one win over a Creme-projected tournament team - Pittsburgh a 12 seed.
UNC has quality wins over FSU (Creme 2 seed), Stanford (Creme 4 seed), Rutgers (Creme 7 seed) and Ok State (Creme 10 seed). [4 vs 10 seed or better]
[Not sure I didn't miss something]

Another issue that factors in is where Stanford stands among the four seeds. My rough guess would be second or third.
In Creme's bracketololgy, the 4 seeds are Stanford, C.a.l., GW, and Kentucky.
Hard to think that c.a.l. is overall ahead of Stanford - having fewer good wins [4 vs Creme tournament teams] and losing two of three head to head. Their overall record is one win shy of Stanford's - same losses.
GW has a great record and weak schedule, like Princeton but less extreme. I think their only tournament team wins were 3 vs Dayton (Creme 8 seed).
Kentucky has a record similar to Stanford's (matches c.a.l.'s), and good wins over S. Car (Creme 1 seed), Miss St x 2 (Creme 5 seed), Arkansas (11 seed), Louisville (2 seed), Oklahoma (6 seed), USF (6 seed), Baylor (2 seed). [8 tournament teams, 7 vs 6 seed or better]. That's pretty good - though really quite close to Stanford's. It may be that their overall SOS was tougher than Stanford as the SEC is probably still stronger than the Pac 12 and their OOC had 5 tough teams.


So with the caveat that I am not quite sure what the women's seeding committee has shown to value the most, it would seem most likely (but far from a lock) that Stanford sneaks in with a top four seed.

[CTcard]

Creme has Stanford 4 and Princeton 5 but why?  Why not Princeton 4 and Stanford 5?  Princeton is undefeated and has an RPI better than ours and poll rankings better than us.  Yes, its competition was weaker but the RPI is still the RPI.

Creme also has North Carolina as a 5.  Why?  They beat us, their record is better, and their RPI is better.

Creme also has Mississippi State as a 5.  I agree with that.  They have a worse RPI than us, and they have lost to almost every ranked team they have played.

In short, I'm preparing to be disappointed, then I will celebrate I am am proved wrong.  Princeton and North Carolina are the teams most apt to knock us down to a 5.

I don't know the trends on the women's selections, but for the men the trend has been to pay less attention to the RPI (which is a terrible power rating) and pay more attention to quality wins.

Stanford has some quality wins: UConn (Creme 1 seed), ASU (Creme 3 seed), c.a.l. x 2 (Creme 4 seed), OSU (Creme 3 seed), UW x 2 (Creme 6 seed). [7 vs 6 seed or better]
Princeton doesn't really have any - I think they have one win over a Creme-projected tournament team - Pittsburgh a 12 seed.
UNC has quality wins over FSU (Creme 2 seed), Stanford (Creme 4 seed), Rutgers (Creme 7 seed) and Ok State (Creme 10 seed). [4 vs 10 seed or better]
[Not sure I didn't miss something]

Another issue that factors in is where Stanford stands among the four seeds. My rough guess would be second or third.
In Creme's bracketololgy, the 4 seeds are Stanford, C.a.l., GW, and Kentucky.
Hard to think that c.a.l. is overall ahead of Stanford - having fewer good wins [4 vs Creme tournament teams] and losing two of three head to head. Their overall record is one win shy of Stanford's - same losses.
GW has a great record and weak schedule, like Princeton but less extreme. I think their only tournament team wins were 3 vs Dayton (Creme 8 seed).
Kentucky has a record similar to Stanford's (matches c.a.l.'s), and good wins over S. Car (Creme 1 seed), Miss St x 2 (Creme 5 seed), Arkansas (11 seed), Louisville (2 seed), Oklahoma (6 seed), USF (6 seed), Baylor (2 seed). [8 tournament teams, 7 vs 6 seed or better]. That's pretty good - though really quite close to Stanford's. It may be that their overall SOS was tougher than Stanford as the SEC is probably still stronger than the Pac 12 and their OOC had 5 tough teams.


So with the caveat that I am not quite sure what the women's seeding committee has shown to value the most, it would seem most likely (but far from a lock) that Stanford sneaks in with a top four seed.