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WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - 81alum - 02-05-2015

The top 16 teams automatically host the first two rounds. 

Currently:
^ AP 12
^ Coaches 14
^ Sagarin 14
= Bracketology: 4 seed
v RPI 24

We can do ourselves a great deal of good Friday night against ASU.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting - FarmDad.01 - 02-05-2015

SOS is about to skyrocket because half our remaining conference games are against ranked teams -- ASU, C.A.L (2), OSU. I think 15-3 in conference earns no worse than the #3 seed in the PAC 12 tourney. I think getting to the Finals at Key Arena guarantees that Maples will host Rounds 1 and 2 of the NCAAs. 

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - 81alum - 02-09-2015

Currently:
v AP 19 (down from 12)
v Coaches 19 (down from 14)
v Sagarin 17 (down from 14)
v Bracketology: 6 seed (down from 4)  "A lost weekend in Arizona probably ended the Cardinal's chance at a 15th straight Pac-12 regular-season championship."
v RPI 28 (down from 24)

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - 81alum - 02-25-2015

Currently:
v AP 19
v Coaches 19
= Sagarin 14
v Bracketology: 5 seed "The Cardinal and Cal are virtually the same team, illustrated by their split last week in which each won on the other's home floor."
v RPI 22

It might seem impossible, but looking at these numbers, there is still hope--but I have not seen evidence that we can beat Oregon State.  But mathematically, if we win out and win the tournament we likely would have to beat these teams:

Oregon State
Oregon
UCLA?
Arizona State?
Oregon State?

If we run that table we can still host.  So we have one last, desperate chance to get it all together.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - BobK - 02-25-2015

Got to admire your enthusiasm.    Pretty slight chance but it's there.

Btw Alanna Smith scored 30 in their 20u tourney the other day

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - 81alum - 02-25-2015

(02-25-2015, 08:44 AM)BobK link Wrote:Got to admire your enthusiasm.    Pretty slight chance but it's there.

Btw Alanna Smith scored 30 in their 20u tourney the other day
The world will look a whole lot better if we beat Oregon State tomorrow.  If we do that, we can take it from there.

I am quite optimistic about next year.  With Kaylee having the off season to further develop, and with the amount of experience Alanna Smith will bring to the team--and I do expect her to win a starting role from day one--I think our post woes will be over.  Plus we just saw the next Kate Starbird launch an All-American career in our loss to C.al at the three.  And Bri, Karlie, and Lili give us a superb and versatile set of guards who will do nothing but get better with the frosh guards coming in.  We will miss Bonnie and Amber at first, but we will have a more talented and bigger starting lineup next year than we had this year.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - TheFarm07 - 02-26-2015

(02-25-2015, 04:46 PM)81alum link Wrote:[quote author=BobK link=topic=11688.msg113709#msg113709 date=1424879045]
Got to admire your enthusiasm.    Pretty slight chance but it's there.

Btw Alanna Smith scored 30 in their 20u tourney the other day
The world will look a whole lot better if we beat Oregon State tomorrow.  If we do that, we can take it from there.

I am quite optimistic about next year.  With Kaylee having the off season to further develop, and with the amount of experience Alanna Smith will bring to the team--and I do expect her to win a starting role from day one--I think our post woes will be over.  Plus we just saw the next Kate Starbird launch an All-American career in our loss to C.al at the three.  And Bri, Karlie, and Lili give us a superb and versatile set of guards who will do nothing but get better with the frosh guards coming in.  We will miss Bonnie and Amber at first, but we will have a more talented and bigger starting lineup next year than we had this year.
[/quote]

Hopefully McCall will also develop over the off-season as well and maybe even Kailee Johnson (she's been barely a blip on the radar her first two years disappointingly) and we'll have some depth beyond Kaylee and Alanna. 

Having 3 proven guards (Lili, Briana and Karlie) will help ease Sniezek in.

An opening day starting lineup for 2015-16 of:

G Lili Thompson
G Karlie Samuelson
W Brittany McPhee
F Alanna Smith
F Kaylee Johnson

should helpfully put up a better record next year and return the Pac-12 title to the Farm

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - BobK - 02-26-2015

Unless we intergrate the Posts into the offense I didn't see much improvement.  Or if we do then I do.  :D  Of course maybe it's a two year plan.  Amazing how Kailee started her first few games of her career here and looked so good. 

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - Jskass - 02-26-2015

yes, there has to be a recognition that the guard first offense actually delayed the growth of the posts and hurt us overall. From time to time, fine to surprise people with a different and guard-centric lineup but only 1 post? who doesn't get the ball inside? Becomes the live and die by 3 pointers.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - CompSci87 - 02-26-2015

(02-26-2015, 07:39 AM)BobK link Wrote:Amazing how Kailee started her first few games of her career here and looked so good.

Well, Kailee was playing the 3 then because all our 3's were injured.  She can hang out on the perimeter and shoot 3-pointers, but hasn't shown much ability to play inside. "Hesitant" is the word that comes to mind every time I see her play.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - BobK - 02-26-2015

Kailee's 2nd career star was against UConn and she had 7 rebounds.  Not so good other games.  :D

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - Jskass - 02-26-2015

So now that we've beaten OSU, need to concentrate hard on Oregon...perhaps that could move us up closer to the top 16 for hosting purposes!

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - chimera - 02-26-2015

Big win over OSU that will really help with NCAA seeding.  We may yet host if we beat UO on Sunday and do well in the P-12 tournament.  The teams also in the running to host are not all going to finish well.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - FarmDad.01 - 02-26-2015

Solid win tonight. The Cardinal held Hamblin and Wiese in firm check throughout, and allowed Weisner 15 in the first half but only 3 in the second half.

Without delving into tiebreakers in terms of Pac-12 tournament seeding, Stanford's earned a bye to the Friday quarters and will probably play either UDub or U$C. I'm actually hoping for the 4 seed, which means a probable rematch with OSU. Like us, they don't play maul-ball -- which, I think, led to tonight's victory. Happy to let the other semifinal pit maul-ballers ASU vs. C.A.L.

Looking around tonight's results around the nation, and the conference tournaments to come, I think just getting to the championship game earns the Cardinal an NCAA #4 or #3 seed, meaning one or two games at Maples.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - CompSci87 - 02-26-2015

(02-26-2015, 03:40 PM)BobK link Wrote:Kailee's 2nd career star was against UConn and she had 7 rebounds.  Not so good other games.  :D

Maybe she didn't know enough to be nervous yet!

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - CompSci87 - 02-27-2015

Charlie has us as a 4 seed in South Carolina's region after the OSU win. That's "if the season ended today"; he doesn't figure in projected results of the rest of the regular season and conference tournaments.

http://m.espn.go.com/ncw/story?storyId=12391128&src=desktop

South Carolina would be an interesting matchup if we get so far.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - M T - 03-01-2015

(02-27-2015, 02:49 AM)CompSci87 link Wrote:Charlie has us as a 4 seed in South Carolina's region after the OSU win. ...
South Carolina would be an interesting matchup if we get so far.

The other day, I was thinking that the powers that be would put us in the same region as So. Carolina.  By putting us in with the #2 overall seed, UConn wouldn't risk facing Stanford again until the championship match.  I don't know that we could beat them again, but why should they risk UConn facing us again sooner than that.

But, I hope Stanford is well stocked with So. Carolina video & analysis.
(Has anyone knowledge about the quality of their product & techniques used at http://www.krossover.com/  ?  KNTV did a segment about them a week or so ago )



Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - Jskass - 03-01-2015

first - sorry but i need to say this - we need to remember how to win 2 games in a row. How to be fired up for every game as though it is your list (which soon one will be). I thought they came out pretty well today vs. OR but then went flat and completely died the first few minutes of the 2H. What is with this? I just don't get how they can be really good sometimes then dead -- other than when one relies too much on one type of shot (e.g., 3 pointer) if it goes cold.

Shame because they'll be lucky now to get  a 5 seed.

Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - 81alum - 03-02-2015

Creme has us back to a 5 seed

Quote:The Cardinal's season might have been summed up with the final trip to Oregon. A great, defensive-driven effort turned into an upset of Pac-12 champion Oregon State on Thursday. Three days later, Stanford looked uninspired and didn't make many shots while inexplicably losing to struggling Oregon. Gaining the ability to host NCAA tournament games became much more difficult.


Re: WBB: chances of hosting / making / bracketology - FarmDad.01 - 03-02-2015

In Creme's article explaining his current Bracketology, he seeds Stanford #17. Every team above us begins conference tournaments this week. Eleven will lose another game (and how early will matter). Depending on weekend play in Seattle, I think hosting the first two rounds is still very possible.