[BostonCard]

What are you doing? I'm just using Excel's binomial distribution.

I used R's binomial distribution:

Code:

> pbinom(3, 50, 1/350, F)
[1] 1.381674e-05

BC

---

Still, football players do get ALS at about 4 times the rate of the general population.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?ter...S+football

CONCLUSIONS:

The neurodegenerative mortality of this cohort is 3 times higher than that of the general US population; that for 2 of the major neurodegenerative subcategories, AD and ALS, is 4 times higher. These results are consistent with recent studies that suggest an increased risk of neurodegenerative disease among football players.

So, yeah, not a coincidence.

BC

It is not a coincidence, but it would be incorrect to infer causation. There are many other factors that football players have in common with each other that could be causative. One would need to control for those factors as well. There are studies that indicate a higher level of ALS and similar in ALL athletes. Nobody is sure what that means. It is an interesting data point though.

I was not trying to suggest that correlation implied causation.  Other common factors, such as exposure to some toxin in the field in SF, could have led to ALS; it doesn't have to be the act of playing football.

BC

[BostonCard]

What are you doing? I'm just using Excel's binomial distribution.

I used R's binomial distribution:

Code:

> pbinom(3, 50, 1/350, F)
[1] 1.381674e-05

BC

---

Still, football players do get ALS at about 4 times the rate of the general population.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?ter...S+football

CONCLUSIONS:

The neurodegenerative mortality of this cohort is 3 times higher than that of the general US population; that for 2 of the major neurodegenerative subcategories, AD and ALS, is 4 times higher. These results are consistent with recent studies that suggest an increased risk of neurodegenerative disease among football players.

So, yeah, not a coincidence.

BC

It is not a coincidence, but it would be incorrect to infer causation. There are many other factors that football players have in common with each other that could be causative. One would need to control for those factors as well. There are studies that indicate a higher level of ALS and similar in ALL athletes. Nobody is sure what that means. It is an interesting data point though.

I was not trying to suggest that correlation implied causation.  Other common factors, such as exposure to some toxin in the field in SF, could have led to ALS; it doesn't have to be the act of playing football.

BC

[SamuelMcF]

I'm going to repeat this, because it's more relevant to the topic than statistics.

Mills out. West starting.

[SamuelMcF]

I'm going to repeat this, because it's more relevant to the topic than statistics.

Mills out. West starting.

[Goose]

I'm going to repeat this, because it's more relevant to the topic than statistics.

Mills out. West starting.

I think most of us are not surprised at this. Hopefully West will be as good as Shaw has led us to expect him to be, and runs the entire offense. No matter who the QB was going to be, I expected to see #22 early and often. Lets hope the Stanford team comes to play. If they do, they should be in good shape.

[Goose]

I'm going to repeat this, because it's more relevant to the topic than statistics.

Mills out. West starting.

I think most of us are not surprised at this. Hopefully West will be as good as Shaw has led us to expect him to be, and runs the entire offense. No matter who the QB was going to be, I expected to see #22 early and often. Lets hope the Stanford team comes to play. If they do, they should be in good shape.

[martyup]

I'm going to repeat this, because it's more relevant to the topic than statistics.

Mills out. West starting.

The name is West . . . Jack West.

[martyup]

I'm going to repeat this, because it's more relevant to the topic than statistics.

Mills out. West starting.

The name is West . . . Jack West.

[Goose]

As far as I have been able to determine, UCLA has not announced that DTR will or will not start. I am assuming that he will at least give it a go, since he supposedly practiced all week. Does anybody have any real information on this, or is Chip just not saying? I am not sure it much matters to our defensive game plan, but it is interesting there has been no announcement.

[Goose]

As far as I have been able to determine, UCLA has not announced that DTR will or will not start. I am assuming that he will at least give it a go, since he supposedly practiced all week. Does anybody have any real information on this, or is Chip just not saying? I am not sure it much matters to our defensive game plan, but it is interesting there has been no announcement.

[martyup]

I hope West can keep his composure with the Bruin pass rush.  

[martyup]

I hope West can keep his composure with the Bruin pass rush.  

[george]

It isn’t worth anything and I have no credentials as a football player, coach or scout, but at 2 or 3 open practices, I was more impressed with West than any of our QBs. 

His accuracy on both touch passes and tight-window passes was impressive. He hit Parkinson in the slot with a 25–yard bullet that was reminiscent of Luck, dare I say.  It was just drills and scrimmages, but he sure seemed to have all the tools.

I hope this is the Jack West that we see tomorrow night.  In the Washington game am I imagining that we only called one pass play for him?  If so, I remember that it was... shaky. 

I'm hoping that he's set up for success after a week of 1st team reps, but historically for QBs running our offense that hasn't been enough time.  I'm revising my forecast for the game tomorrow down as I don't see us calling many pass plays and feel like this we'd be happy w/ a 3-0 or even 2-0 final score.

[george]

It isn’t worth anything and I have no credentials as a football player, coach or scout, but at 2 or 3 open practices, I was more impressed with West than any of our QBs. 

His accuracy on both touch passes and tight-window passes was impressive. He hit Parkinson in the slot with a 25–yard bullet that was reminiscent of Luck, dare I say.  It was just drills and scrimmages, but he sure seemed to have all the tools.

I hope this is the Jack West that we see tomorrow night.  In the Washington game am I imagining that we only called one pass play for him?  If so, I remember that it was... shaky. 

I'm hoping that he's set up for success after a week of 1st team reps, but historically for QBs running our offense that hasn't been enough time.  I'm revising my forecast for the game tomorrow down as I don't see us calling many pass plays and feel like this we'd be happy w/ a 3-0 or even 2-0 final score.

[terry]

 In the Washington game am I imagining that we only called one pass play for him?  If so, I remember that it was... shaky. 

If I recall correctly, there was one pass play called, a quick pass to the left, maybe a bubble screen. West looked left, but pulled the ball down and tried to run. I guess maybe he thought the pass was too well defended.

[terry]

 In the Washington game am I imagining that we only called one pass play for him?  If so, I remember that it was... shaky. 

If I recall correctly, there was one pass play called, a quick pass to the left, maybe a bubble screen. West looked left, but pulled the ball down and tried to run. I guess maybe he thought the pass was too well defended.

[magnus]

If I recall correctly, there was one pass play called, a quick pass to the left, maybe a bubble screen. West looked left, but pulled the ball down and tried to run. I guess maybe he thought the pass was too well defended.

Was that the play where he got up limping?  Hope he's over whatever that was.

[magnus]

If I recall correctly, there was one pass play called, a quick pass to the left, maybe a bubble screen. West looked left, but pulled the ball down and tried to run. I guess maybe he thought the pass was too well defended.

Was that the play where he got up limping?  Hope he's over whatever that was.

[CTcard]

Hopefully West will be as good as Shaw has led us to expect him to be, and runs the entire offense. No matter who the QB was going to be, I expected to see #22 early and often. Lets hope the Stanford team comes to play. If they do, they should be in good shape.

Outside of universal coach speak, I don't think that Shaw has led us to believe that West is particularly good; but that does depend upon how you interpret coach speak.

His comment just before officially announcing West to start was,

He knows what to do and how to do it. He's got a strong arm, throws the ball accurately and threw to our guys all summer. Because of our quarterback situation, he's gotten more reps than most 'third' quarterbacks have this entire year. He's just jumped in and operated the offense.

To me that sounds like a fairly unenthusiastic "I love all my children equally" sort of comment.
On the other hand, I wouldn't believe any gushing, so that comment doesn't cause me worry above and beyond simply starting a third string QB.

[CTcard]

Hopefully West will be as good as Shaw has led us to expect him to be, and runs the entire offense. No matter who the QB was going to be, I expected to see #22 early and often. Lets hope the Stanford team comes to play. If they do, they should be in good shape.

Outside of universal coach speak, I don't think that Shaw has led us to believe that West is particularly good; but that does depend upon how you interpret coach speak.

His comment just before officially announcing West to start was,

He knows what to do and how to do it. He's got a strong arm, throws the ball accurately and threw to our guys all summer. Because of our quarterback situation, he's gotten more reps than most 'third' quarterbacks have this entire year. He's just jumped in and operated the offense.

To me that sounds like a fairly unenthusiastic "I love all my children equally" sort of comment.
On the other hand, I wouldn't believe any gushing, so that comment doesn't cause me worry above and beyond simply starting a third string QB.

[Phogge]

Would expect a few “wildcat” plays. Actually pretty close to the Single Wing without the threat of a tailback passing. Don’t think there are any Paul Camerons, Billy Kilmers or Johnny Majors type athletes at Stanford.

[Phogge]

Would expect a few “wildcat” plays. Actually pretty close to the Single Wing without the threat of a tailback passing. Don’t think there are any Paul Camerons, Billy Kilmers or Johnny Majors type athletes at Stanford.

[CardinalSagehen]

Hopefully West will be as good as Shaw has led us to expect him to be, and runs the entire offense. No matter who the QB was going to be, I expected to see #22 early and often. Lets hope the Stanford team comes to play. If they do, they should be in good shape.

Outside of universal coach speak, I don't think that Shaw has led us to believe that West is particularly good; but that does depend upon how you interpret coach speak.

His comment just before officially announcing West to start was,

He knows what to do and how to do it. He's got a strong arm, throws the ball accurately and threw to our guys all summer. Because of our quarterback situation, he's gotten more reps than most 'third' quarterbacks have this entire year. He's just jumped in and operated the offense.

To me that sounds like a fairly unenthusiastic "I love all my children equally" sort of comment.
On the other hand, I wouldn't believe any gushing, so that comment doesn't cause me worry above and beyond simply starting a third string QB.

For whatever it's worth, just before this season, Shaw stated that West was the single player that made the greatest leap over the off-season and during summer practices. As I recall, he was quite enthusiastic in his assessment. 

In any case, I'm guessing it must be very difficult to predict how well a first-time QB starter will do under the big lights, facing all the pressure, speed and chaos of a real game situation against unfriendly college football opponents.

[CardinalSagehen]

Hopefully West will be as good as Shaw has led us to expect him to be, and runs the entire offense. No matter who the QB was going to be, I expected to see #22 early and often. Lets hope the Stanford team comes to play. If they do, they should be in good shape.

Outside of universal coach speak, I don't think that Shaw has led us to believe that West is particularly good; but that does depend upon how you interpret coach speak.

His comment just before officially announcing West to start was,

He knows what to do and how to do it. He's got a strong arm, throws the ball accurately and threw to our guys all summer. Because of our quarterback situation, he's gotten more reps than most 'third' quarterbacks have this entire year. He's just jumped in and operated the offense.

To me that sounds like a fairly unenthusiastic "I love all my children equally" sort of comment.
On the other hand, I wouldn't believe any gushing, so that comment doesn't cause me worry above and beyond simply starting a third string QB.

For whatever it's worth, just before this season, Shaw stated that West was the single player that made the greatest leap over the off-season and during summer practices. As I recall, he was quite enthusiastic in his assessment. 

In any case, I'm guessing it must be very difficult to predict how well a first-time QB starter will do under the big lights, facing all the pressure, speed and chaos of a real game situation against unfriendly college football opponents.

[Hurlburt88]

Didn't Mills' season last year end with some non-contact tweak to the knee?   I am really bummed and pessimistic about his ability to play more than a few games for us over his career.   Hope to be wrong!   40 year decision . . .

[Hurlburt88]

Didn't Mills' season last year end with some non-contact tweak to the knee?   I am really bummed and pessimistic about his ability to play more than a few games for us over his career.   Hope to be wrong!   40 year decision . . .

[Austroturf]

Line is down to Stanford -4.  The news of West starting has been incorporated into the Vegas odds.

[Austroturf]

Line is down to Stanford -4.  The news of West starting has been incorporated into the Vegas odds.

[martyup]

Line is down to Stanford -4.  The news of West starting has been incorporated into the Vegas odds.

I think we'll cover.  

[martyup]

Line is down to Stanford -4.  The news of West starting has been incorporated into the Vegas odds.

I think we'll cover.  

[JohnR34231]

Didn't Mills' season last year end with some non-contact tweak to the knee?   I am really bummed and pessimistic about his ability to play more than a few games for us over his career.   Hope to be wrong!   40 year decision . . .

Mills hurt his knee while he was running the ball against UC Davis. Unfortunately, I think your pessimism is still justified.

[JohnR34231]

Didn't Mills' season last year end with some non-contact tweak to the knee?   I am really bummed and pessimistic about his ability to play more than a few games for us over his career.   Hope to be wrong!   40 year decision . . .

Mills hurt his knee while he was running the ball against UC Davis. Unfortunately, I think your pessimism is still justified.

[stupac2]

I used R's binomial distribution:

Code:

> pbinom(3, 50, 1/350, F)



[1] 1.381674e-05

BC

That's bizarre, I'm doing the same thing but in excel and getting a much different result. Although I think it's a difference in the cumulative/individual behavior, I can get that value if I switch to "=1-BINOM.DIST(3,50,1/350,TRUE)", which is "the odds that there are greater than 3 successes in 50 tries", clearly not what we actually want here, which is more like "the odds that there are at least 3 successes in 50 tries".



Incidentally, one of the reasons that I thought this couldn't be all that unlikely is the birthday problem, which has pretty similar numbers (in case you're unaware, that's the result that the number of people needed before there's a 50% chance of a duplicate birthday is a lot lower than you'd guess, like 35). 1/350 is about 1/365, 50 is bigger than 35, and you're switching the 2 to a 3. Now obviously it's a bit less likely because not everyone has a 1/350 disease and you're not looking for any match, but I wouldn't expect that to be a 4 orders of magnitude reduction in odds.

[stupac2]

I used R's binomial distribution:

Code:

> pbinom(3, 50, 1/350, F)



[1] 1.381674e-05

BC

That's bizarre, I'm doing the same thing but in excel and getting a much different result. Although I think it's a difference in the cumulative/individual behavior, I can get that value if I switch to "=1-BINOM.DIST(3,50,1/350,TRUE)", which is "the odds that there are greater than 3 successes in 50 tries", clearly not what we actually want here, which is more like "the odds that there are at least 3 successes in 50 tries".



Incidentally, one of the reasons that I thought this couldn't be all that unlikely is the birthday problem, which has pretty similar numbers (in case you're unaware, that's the result that the number of people needed before there's a 50% chance of a duplicate birthday is a lot lower than you'd guess, like 35). 1/350 is about 1/365, 50 is bigger than 35, and you're switching the 2 to a 3. Now obviously it's a bit less likely because not everyone has a 1/350 disease and you're not looking for any match, but I wouldn't expect that to be a 4 orders of magnitude reduction in odds.

[Phogge]

Don’t think Costello’s problem is just the thumb.

[Phogge]

Don’t think Costello’s problem is just the thumb.

[Papa John]

I pass on from my Twitter feed this apropos paraphrase of John Babsone Lane Soule:

"Go young man West, go West!"

---

And one more tidbit: I checked the 2018 crystal ball predictions for Jack West from 247 Sports. All 6 expert predictions were for...

Alabama

[Papa John]

I pass on from my Twitter feed this apropos paraphrase of John Babsone Lane Soule:

"Go young man West, go West!"

---

And one more tidbit: I checked the 2018 crystal ball predictions for Jack West from 247 Sports. All 6 expert predictions were for...

Alabama

[CowboyIndian]

I pass on from my Twitter feed this apropos paraphrase of John Babsone Lane Soule:

"Go young man West, go West!"

Not that I've ever delved deeply into this, but isn't that a Horace Greeley quotation?

[CowboyIndian]

I pass on from my Twitter feed this apropos paraphrase of John Babsone Lane Soule:

"Go young man West, go West!"

Not that I've ever delved deeply into this, but isn't that a Horace Greeley quotation?