[stupac2]

But I do like the idea of a meteorite hitting Tuscaloosa at 8pm ET on Saturday :)

We haven't had any particularly weird digressions in this thread, and this has gotten me curious. Typically when I see this thought phrased it's with a "meteor" hitting the stadium, but on this board it's tended to be "meteorite". According to wikipedia a meteoroid is something outside of the atmosphere, a meteor is inside the atmosphere, and a meteorite is what survives the atmosphere and impact with the ground. If we want to be pedantic here (which, this being this forum, seems appropriate) which do we want to use? I'm rather unsure, since obviously if the meteor disintegrates before reaching the ground it doesn't do much damage (which is contrary to the intent here), but since the rock can be mostly destroyed on impact meteorite doesn't seem right. I'm leaning toward meteor but not strongly.

[stupac2]

But I do like the idea of a meteorite hitting Tuscaloosa at 8pm ET on Saturday :)

We haven't had any particularly weird digressions in this thread, and this has gotten me curious. Typically when I see this thought phrased it's with a "meteor" hitting the stadium, but on this board it's tended to be "meteorite". According to wikipedia a meteoroid is something outside of the atmosphere, a meteor is inside the atmosphere, and a meteorite is what survives the atmosphere and impact with the ground. If we want to be pedantic here (which, this being this forum, seems appropriate) which do we want to use? I'm rather unsure, since obviously if the meteor disintegrates before reaching the ground it doesn't do much damage (which is contrary to the intent here), but since the rock can be mostly destroyed on impact meteorite doesn't seem right. I'm leaning toward meteor but not strongly.

[BostonCard]

I think we want this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpmXyJrs7iU

Though just to be clear, I want that in a metaphorical sense.  I don't want people actually hurt.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think we want this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpmXyJrs7iU

Though just to be clear, I want that in a metaphorical sense.  I don't want people actually hurt.

BC

[BostonCard]

The fivethirtyeight site is a bit odd:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...-favorite/

Alabama has only a 14% chance of winning the SEC, but a 41% chance of making the playoffs, whereas Florida has a 41% chance of winning the SEC, but only an 18% chance of making the playoff.  Since it is nearly guaranteed to win the SEC EAst (it has only Vanderbilt and SOuth Carolina left in its conference schedule), the logic here is that Florida has about a 40% chance of beating the SEC West champ (which could be LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss).  I guess the thinking is that Florida might win the SEC but lose to Florida State (FEI predicts a 65% chance of winning against FSU), and that if Ole Miss makes it to the conference championship game and loses to Florida, the committee would pick a one-loss Alabama who did not make it to their conference championship over a two loss Florida and  a two loss Ole Miss.  Still, those probabilities don't seem large enough to account for the discrepancy between Alabama's SEC title chances and their playoff chances.

BC

[BostonCard]

The fivethirtyeight site is a bit odd:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...-favorite/

Alabama has only a 14% chance of winning the SEC, but a 41% chance of making the playoffs, whereas Florida has a 41% chance of winning the SEC, but only an 18% chance of making the playoff.  Since it is nearly guaranteed to win the SEC EAst (it has only Vanderbilt and SOuth Carolina left in its conference schedule), the logic here is that Florida has about a 40% chance of beating the SEC West champ (which could be LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss).  I guess the thinking is that Florida might win the SEC but lose to Florida State (FEI predicts a 65% chance of winning against FSU), and that if Ole Miss makes it to the conference championship game and loses to Florida, the committee would pick a one-loss Alabama who did not make it to their conference championship over a two loss Florida and  a two loss Ole Miss.  Still, those probabilities don't seem large enough to account for the discrepancy between Alabama's SEC title chances and their playoff chances.

BC

[stupac2]

The fivethirtyeight site is a bit odd:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...-favorite/

Alabama has only a 14% chance of winning the SEC, but a 41% chance of making the playoffs, whereas Florida has a 41% chance of winning the SEC, but only an 18% chance of making the playoff.  Since it is nearly guaranteed to win the SEC EAst (it has only Vanderbilt and SOuth Carolina left in its conference schedule), the logic here is that Florida has about a 40% chance of beating the SEC West champ (which could be LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss).  I guess the thinking is that Florida might win the SEC but lose to Florida State (FEI predicts a 65% chance of winning against FSU), and that if Ole Miss makes it to the conference championship game and loses to Florida, the committee would pick a one-loss Alabama who did not make it to their conference championship over a two loss Florida and  a two loss Ole Miss.  Still, those probabilities don't seem large enough to account for the discrepancy between Alabama's SEC title chances and their playoff chances.

BC

IIRC Silver said that the bonus for winning your conference varies in the simulation rounds, from nothing to quite large, with the average being somewhat small. I think it's likely that they're underweighting it.

[stupac2]

The fivethirtyeight site is a bit odd:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...-favorite/

Alabama has only a 14% chance of winning the SEC, but a 41% chance of making the playoffs, whereas Florida has a 41% chance of winning the SEC, but only an 18% chance of making the playoff.  Since it is nearly guaranteed to win the SEC EAst (it has only Vanderbilt and SOuth Carolina left in its conference schedule), the logic here is that Florida has about a 40% chance of beating the SEC West champ (which could be LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss).  I guess the thinking is that Florida might win the SEC but lose to Florida State (FEI predicts a 65% chance of winning against FSU), and that if Ole Miss makes it to the conference championship game and loses to Florida, the committee would pick a one-loss Alabama who did not make it to their conference championship over a two loss Florida and  a two loss Ole Miss.  Still, those probabilities don't seem large enough to account for the discrepancy between Alabama's SEC title chances and their playoff chances.

BC

IIRC Silver said that the bonus for winning your conference varies in the simulation rounds, from nothing to quite large, with the average being somewhat small. I think it's likely that they're underweighting it.

[washingtonismoney]

I've stopped paying attention to 538's sports projections. Back of the envelope, they almost always seem to overvalue favorites .(Perhaps most egregiously for the 2014 World Cup, in which they said Brazil had like a 60% chance to win the entire tournament...which anyone with basic math skills could've pointed out was dumb.)

[washingtonismoney]

I've stopped paying attention to 538's sports projections. Back of the envelope, they almost always seem to overvalue favorites .(Perhaps most egregiously for the 2014 World Cup, in which they said Brazil had like a 60% chance to win the entire tournament...which anyone with basic math skills could've pointed out was dumb.)