[OutsiderFan]

We don't control our own destiny...

I couldn't disagree more.  If Stanford wins out and beats Notre Dame impressively, Stanford is in without a question, because the primary reason Clemson is #1 is their 2 pt win over UDFG, and UDFG is #5 right now.  And I already pointed out how much weight the committee is putting on wins over teams with above .500 records.

[OutsiderFan]

We don't control our own destiny...

I couldn't disagree more.  If Stanford wins out and beats Notre Dame impressively, Stanford is in without a question, because the primary reason Clemson is #1 is their 2 pt win over UDFG, and UDFG is #5 right now.  And I already pointed out how much weight the committee is putting on wins over teams with above .500 records.

[TrumpCard]

IMHO, as long as the Big12 is the only major conference without a CCG (and whose teams play only 12 games), the Big 12 champion should never make it to the playoff unless it has fewer losses than the champion of another major conference.  Playing fewer games is too big of an advantage to ignore, and it outweighs virtually any other consideration.  The fact that the Big-12 schedules a bunch of OOC cupcakes (4-4 Minnesota probably is the conference's best OOC win) only strengthens my view.  If my view is correct (and I recognize it is not universally held), then a 1-loss Stanford would be in the Playoff as long as OSU, TCU, and Baylor each end with a loss. 

[TrumpCard]

IMHO, as long as the Big12 is the only major conference without a CCG (and whose teams play only 12 games), the Big 12 champion should never make it to the playoff unless it has fewer losses than the champion of another major conference.  Playing fewer games is too big of an advantage to ignore, and it outweighs virtually any other consideration.  The fact that the Big-12 schedules a bunch of OOC cupcakes (4-4 Minnesota probably is the conference's best OOC win) only strengthens my view.  If my view is correct (and I recognize it is not universally held), then a 1-loss Stanford would be in the Playoff as long as OSU, TCU, and Baylor each end with a loss. 

[dabigv13]

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13494.msg139304#msg139304 date=1446597942]
We don't control our own destiny...

I couldn't disagree more.  If Stanford wins out and beats the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends impressively, Stanford is in without a question, because the primary reason Clemson is #1 is their win over UDFG, and UDFG is #5 right now.  And I already pointed out how much weight the committee is putting on wins over teams with above .500 records.
[/quote]

You think we beat out an undefeated team? Even if the Big 12 doesn't have a champ game, an undefeated champ with wins over the other currently undefeated Big 12 teams will certainly vault us.

Also if they put so much weight on that, then why are we 11? We already played those teams with winning records, and yet look at where we are....

[dabigv13]

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13494.msg139304#msg139304 date=1446597942]
We don't control our own destiny...

I couldn't disagree more.  If Stanford wins out and beats the University of Dead Fake Girlfriends impressively, Stanford is in without a question, because the primary reason Clemson is #1 is their win over UDFG, and UDFG is #5 right now.  And I already pointed out how much weight the committee is putting on wins over teams with above .500 records.
[/quote]

You think we beat out an undefeated team? Even if the Big 12 doesn't have a champ game, an undefeated champ with wins over the other currently undefeated Big 12 teams will certainly vault us.

Also if they put so much weight on that, then why are we 11? We already played those teams with winning records, and yet look at where we are....

[dabigv13]

And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games. But what else is fandom about?

[dabigv13]

And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games. But what else is fandom about?

[Stymie]

UDFG #5?????????

As Deep Throat said, follow the money........

[Stymie]

UDFG #5?????????

As Deep Throat said, follow the money........

[martyup]

If we win out and get left out of the playoffs, we will still come out smelling like a rose.  So, let's hope our boys just keep winning and enjoy the spoils of victory.

[martyup]

If we win out and get left out of the playoffs, we will still come out smelling like a rose.  So, let's hope our boys just keep winning and enjoy the spoils of victory.

[stupac2]

And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games.

Correct, this is all a colossal waste of time and energy.

But what else is fandom about?

Rooting for your team!



Anyway, my several cents here:

1) I still think if we win out, we're in. Northwestern being in the 20's makes that loss look better, and I think the Pac will consolidate wins and get more teams over .500. Plus we should easily have the best OOC lineup of any team in contention.
2) I'm with WiM, these rankings don't matter. tOSU was 16 on this ballot last year. The end of the season is when everything important happens and we're just starting it.
3) I am shocked at how high Memphis is, though I suspect that's basically their ceiling, barring some real chaos. I guess we ought to root for those mid-majors to all get losses. Fortunately that's pretty likely.
8) I'm just putting this here to say that if you click the "Attachments and other options" link under the text box, you can then check the "Don't use smileys" option so this bullet will show up. You could also use the BBCode list but that's lame.

UDFG #5?????????

As Deep Throat said, follow the money........

Eh, they've beaten some pretty good teams and their only loss is to the #1 team on the road by less than a FG. I can see it. Alabama is really the one that's weirdly ranked. But, again, this will all work itself out.

[stupac2]

And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games.

Correct, this is all a colossal waste of time and energy.

But what else is fandom about?

Rooting for your team!



Anyway, my several cents here:

1) I still think if we win out, we're in. Northwestern being in the 20's makes that loss look better, and I think the Pac will consolidate wins and get more teams over .500. Plus we should easily have the best OOC lineup of any team in contention.
2) I'm with WiM, these rankings don't matter. tOSU was 16 on this ballot last year. The end of the season is when everything important happens and we're just starting it.
3) I am shocked at how high Memphis is, though I suspect that's basically their ceiling, barring some real chaos. I guess we ought to root for those mid-majors to all get losses. Fortunately that's pretty likely.
8) I'm just putting this here to say that if you click the "Attachments and other options" link under the text box, you can then check the "Don't use smileys" option so this bullet will show up. You could also use the BBCode list but that's lame.

UDFG #5?????????

As Deep Throat said, follow the money........

Eh, they've beaten some pretty good teams and their only loss is to the #1 team on the road by less than a FG. I can see it. Alabama is really the one that's weirdly ranked. But, again, this will all work itself out.

[Rally]

If we win out and get left out of the playoffs, we will still come out smelling like a rose.  So, let's hope our boys just keep winning and enjoy the spoils of victory.

Oh God, another Rose Bowl.  How boring.  Three in four years would only double the number in my (fandom) lifetime.

[Rally]

If we win out and get left out of the playoffs, we will still come out smelling like a rose.  So, let's hope our boys just keep winning and enjoy the spoils of victory.

Oh God, another Rose Bowl.  How boring.  Three in four years would only double the number in my (fandom) lifetime.

[washingtonismoney]

As others have said, the only relevant thing is:

1) Stanford winning all of its remaining games. If it does, it'll probably be in the playoffs! As we know there are rarely more than two undefeated teams, which means Stanford will be in the mix of one-loss teams. But it will have eliminated two one-loss teams along the way (Utah, N.D.) and of course natural attrition will take care of much of the rest.

If you simply must speculate on other games, then:

2) root for Northwestern and N.D.

Anything else is just wasting your mental energy. We're talking about a complex, dynamic system.

[washingtonismoney]

As others have said, the only relevant thing is:

1) Stanford winning all of its remaining games. If it does, it'll probably be in the playoffs! As we know there are rarely more than two undefeated teams, which means Stanford will be in the mix of one-loss teams. But it will have eliminated two one-loss teams along the way (Utah, N.D.) and of course natural attrition will take care of much of the rest.

If you simply must speculate on other games, then:

2) root for Northwestern and N.D.

Anything else is just wasting your mental energy. We're talking about a complex, dynamic system.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."  Is it unlikely?  Certainly.  But looking back, how many of us realistically thought Stanford would be in this position -- especially following the Northwestern game?  How many thought McCaffrey would be getting Voldemort hype 2/3 of the way through the season?  How many thought Stanford vs Washington State would more or less be the North championship game?

For what it's worth, FPI still has us favored in every game remaining.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."  Is it unlikely?  Certainly.  But looking back, how many of us realistically thought Stanford would be in this position -- especially following the Northwestern game?  How many thought McCaffrey would be getting Voldemort hype 2/3 of the way through the season?  How many thought Stanford vs Washington State would more or less be the North championship game?

For what it's worth, FPI still has us favored in every game remaining.

[stupac2]

I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."

Who has said that? The closest I've seen is that winning out is the least likely part of what we'd need to happen, which is just flat-out true.

What I've seen is a lot of pushback about speculation about what we need because it's like trying to predict the movements of a double pendulum, too chaotic for speculation to make any sense.

To demonstrate, here's the first set of rankings from last year:

1 Mississippi State
2 Florida State
3 Auburn
4 Ole Miss
5 Oregon
6 Alabama
7 TCU
8 Michigan State
9 Kansas State
10 Notre Dame
11 Georgia
12 Arizona
13 Baylor
14 Arizona State
15 Nebraska
16 Ohio State
17 Utah
18 Oklahoma
19 LSU
20 West Virginia
21 Clemson
22 UCLA
23 East Carolina
24 Duke
25 Louisville

And here's the final:

1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 Florida State
4 Ohio State
5 Baylor
6 TCU
7 Mississippi State
8 Michigan State
9 Ole Miss
10 Arizona
11 Kansas State
12 Georgia Tech
13 Georgia
14 UCLA
15 Arizona State
16 Missouri
17 Clemson
18 Wisconsin
19 Auburn
20 Boise State
21 Louisville
22 Utah
23 LSU
24 USC
25 Minnesota

They look pretty different!

[stupac2]

I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."

Who has said that? The closest I've seen is that winning out is the least likely part of what we'd need to happen, which is just flat-out true.

What I've seen is a lot of pushback about speculation about what we need because it's like trying to predict the movements of a double pendulum, too chaotic for speculation to make any sense.

To demonstrate, here's the first set of rankings from last year:

1 Mississippi State
2 Florida State
3 Auburn
4 Ole Miss
5 Oregon
6 Alabama
7 TCU
8 Michigan State
9 Kansas State
10 Notre Dame
11 Georgia
12 Arizona
13 Baylor
14 Arizona State
15 Nebraska
16 Ohio State
17 Utah
18 Oklahoma
19 LSU
20 West Virginia
21 Clemson
22 UCLA
23 East Carolina
24 Duke
25 Louisville

And here's the final:

1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 Florida State
4 Ohio State
5 Baylor
6 TCU
7 Mississippi State
8 Michigan State
9 Ole Miss
10 Arizona
11 Kansas State
12 Georgia Tech
13 Georgia
14 UCLA
15 Arizona State
16 Missouri
17 Clemson
18 Wisconsin
19 Auburn
20 Boise State
21 Louisville
22 Utah
23 LSU
24 USC
25 Minnesota

They look pretty different!

[stupac2]

Also of interest, here's 538's model: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here...ions-work/

They don't like us all that much, although we are apparently #6 in ELO and it gives us a 20% chance of making the playoffs, which is presumably mostly affected by the odds of winning the conference (46%) and then the ND game, which I assume they have as a coin toss. Those two things get you most of the way there.

[stupac2]

Also of interest, here's 538's model: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here...ions-work/

They don't like us all that much, although we are apparently #6 in ELO and it gives us a 20% chance of making the playoffs, which is presumably mostly affected by the odds of winning the conference (46%) and then the ND game, which I assume they have as a coin toss. Those two things get you most of the way there.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

[quote author=ThePassionOfTheChryst link=topic=13494.msg139316#msg139316 date=1446602176]I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."

Who has said that?[/quote]

You did, and dabigv alluded to it:

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13494.msg139308#msg139308 date=1446598890]And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games.

Correct, this is all a colossal waste of time and energy.[/quote]

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

[quote author=ThePassionOfTheChryst link=topic=13494.msg139316#msg139316 date=1446602176]I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."

Who has said that?[/quote]

You did, and dabigv alluded to it:

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13494.msg139308#msg139308 date=1446598890]And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games.

Correct, this is all a colossal waste of time and energy.[/quote]

[81alum]

I wonder how much subtle influence CMac's performance will matter.  Let's say we win out and CMac has a spectacular close to the season, breaks Sander's record, unleashes a string of 200 yard rushing games, and moves up and possibly even into the lead for the Voldemort.  Now, let's say we win out but CMac recedes as a factor.  Every other team does a WSU and keys on him, making sure that even if they lose it won't be because of our best player.  We scratch together our wins in other ways just like we did at WSU

Will the prospect of having a Voldemort favorite in the national championship game sway any votes?  Do we become less attractive if we win in a more pedestrian way?

[81alum]

I wonder how much subtle influence CMac's performance will matter.  Let's say we win out and CMac has a spectacular close to the season, breaks Sander's record, unleashes a string of 200 yard rushing games, and moves up and possibly even into the lead for the Voldemort.  Now, let's say we win out but CMac recedes as a factor.  Every other team does a WSU and keys on him, making sure that even if they lose it won't be because of our best player.  We scratch together our wins in other ways just like we did at WSU

Will the prospect of having a Voldemort favorite in the national championship game sway any votes?  Do we become less attractive if we win in a more pedestrian way?

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13494.msg139317#msg139317 date=1446602720]
[quote author=ThePassionOfTheChryst link=topic=13494.msg139316#msg139316 date=1446602176]I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."

Who has said that?[/quote]

You did, and dabigv alluded to it:

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13494.msg139308#msg139308 date=1446598890]And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games.

Correct, this is all a colossal waste of time and energy.[/quote]
[/quote]

No, I said that this is all a colossal waste of time and energy. What part about that is wrong? We're talking about events that we can't affect and don't understand. It's completely pointless, even for message board discussion (where at least many topics can be analyzed with at least some semblance of confidence). We as may as well slaughter a sheep and read its entrails to figure out what's going on.

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13494.msg139317#msg139317 date=1446602720]
[quote author=ThePassionOfTheChryst link=topic=13494.msg139316#msg139316 date=1446602176]I find it a bit absurd for people to say "Well winning out won't happen so let's not even talk about it."

Who has said that?[/quote]

You did, and dabigv alluded to it:

[quote author=dabigv link=topic=13494.msg139308#msg139308 date=1446598890]And just to be clear, it is silly to really be discussing this because I still think the least likely part of us going to the playoffs is us winning all our remaining games.

Correct, this is all a colossal waste of time and energy.[/quote]
[/quote]

No, I said that this is all a colossal waste of time and energy. What part about that is wrong? We're talking about events that we can't affect and don't understand. It's completely pointless, even for message board discussion (where at least many topics can be analyzed with at least some semblance of confidence). We as may as well slaughter a sheep and read its entrails to figure out what's going on.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

No, I said that this is all a colossal waste of time and energy. What part about that is wrong? We're talking about events that we can't affect and don't understand. It's completely pointless, even for message board discussion (where at least many topics can be analyzed with at least some semblance of confidence). We as may as well slaughter a sheep and read its entrails to figure out what's going on.

I didn't say it was wrong.  But it's no more a waste of time and energy than pretty much any other discussion topic on any other message board on the internet.

I just find the whole "This isn't going to happen so it's silly to talk about it" sentiment strange.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

No, I said that this is all a colossal waste of time and energy. What part about that is wrong? We're talking about events that we can't affect and don't understand. It's completely pointless, even for message board discussion (where at least many topics can be analyzed with at least some semblance of confidence). We as may as well slaughter a sheep and read its entrails to figure out what's going on.

I didn't say it was wrong.  But it's no more a waste of time and energy than pretty much any other discussion topic on any other message board on the internet.

I just find the whole "This isn't going to happen so it's silly to talk about it" sentiment strange.

[washingtonismoney]

I wonder how much subtle influence CMac's performance will matter.  Let's say we win out and CMac has a spectacular close to the season, breaks Sander's record, unleashes a string of 200 yard rushing games, and moves up and possibly even into the lead for the Voldemort.  Now, let's say we win out but CMac recedes as a factor.  Every other team does a WSU and keys on him, making sure that even if they lose it won't be because of our best player.  We scratch together our wins in other ways just like we did at WSU

Will the prospect of having a Voldemort favorite in the national championship game sway any votes?  Do we become less attractive if we win in a more pedestrian way?

No, pretty sure that won't matter at all.

Ohio State had zero Voldemort candidates pre-playoff (well, the guy was injured). TCU's Boykin finished third and the frogs missed out. Baylor's Bryce Petty received token votes (and missed out on both playoff and statue).

Doesn't matter. These are the factors that matter:

1) whether we win!
2) how many other one-loss teams there are.

Sorry to be reductive, but it really is just that simple.

[washingtonismoney]

I wonder how much subtle influence CMac's performance will matter.  Let's say we win out and CMac has a spectacular close to the season, breaks Sander's record, unleashes a string of 200 yard rushing games, and moves up and possibly even into the lead for the Voldemort.  Now, let's say we win out but CMac recedes as a factor.  Every other team does a WSU and keys on him, making sure that even if they lose it won't be because of our best player.  We scratch together our wins in other ways just like we did at WSU

Will the prospect of having a Voldemort favorite in the national championship game sway any votes?  Do we become less attractive if we win in a more pedestrian way?

No, pretty sure that won't matter at all.

Ohio State had zero Voldemort candidates pre-playoff (well, the guy was injured). TCU's Boykin finished third and the frogs missed out. Baylor's Bryce Petty received token votes (and missed out on both playoff and statue).

Doesn't matter. These are the factors that matter:

1) whether we win!
2) how many other one-loss teams there are.

Sorry to be reductive, but it really is just that simple.

[CornFed]

How many ways can we parse the twisted scenarios to land a National Championship for Stanford?  If we were in the week leading up to the UDFG game and we were still undefeated, I really could understand this much energy being spent on all the various considerations.  But we're mid-way through the week and really have yet to discuss the Colorado Buffaloes!  I'm not going to bother checking but have we had even one thread posted that was dedicated to the game THIS WEEK?  To me, this is beginning to seem like another subtle form of woofing.

[CornFed]

How many ways can we parse the twisted scenarios to land a National Championship for Stanford?  If we were in the week leading up to the UDFG game and we were still undefeated, I really could understand this much energy being spent on all the various considerations.  But we're mid-way through the week and really have yet to discuss the Colorado Buffaloes!  I'm not going to bother checking but have we had even one thread posted that was dedicated to the game THIS WEEK?  To me, this is beginning to seem like another subtle form of woofing.

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13494.msg139322#msg139322 date=1446603511]No, I said that this is all a colossal waste of time and energy. What part about that is wrong? We're talking about events that we can't affect and don't understand. It's completely pointless, even for message board discussion (where at least many topics can be analyzed with at least some semblance of confidence). We as may as well slaughter a sheep and read its entrails to figure out what's going on.

I didn't say it was wrong.  But it's no more a waste of time and energy than pretty much any other discussion topic on any other message board on the internet.

I just find the whole "This isn't going to happen so it's silly to talk about it" sentiment strange.
[/quote]

Yes it is. Other discussions could be about things that matter, or could change how you look at things (think BC's play/drive data breakdowns, for instance). Discussion about this are little more than divination. Completely useless.

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=13494.msg139322#msg139322 date=1446603511]No, I said that this is all a colossal waste of time and energy. What part about that is wrong? We're talking about events that we can't affect and don't understand. It's completely pointless, even for message board discussion (where at least many topics can be analyzed with at least some semblance of confidence). We as may as well slaughter a sheep and read its entrails to figure out what's going on.

I didn't say it was wrong.  But it's no more a waste of time and energy than pretty much any other discussion topic on any other message board on the internet.

I just find the whole "This isn't going to happen so it's silly to talk about it" sentiment strange.
[/quote]

Yes it is. Other discussions could be about things that matter, or could change how you look at things (think BC's play/drive data breakdowns, for instance). Discussion about this are little more than divination. Completely useless.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

Yes it is. Other discussions could be about things that matter, or could change how you look at things (think BC's play/drive data breakdowns, for instance). Discussion about this are little more than divination. Completely useless.

Alright man.

[ThePassionOfTheChryst]

Yes it is. Other discussions could be about things that matter, or could change how you look at things (think BC's play/drive data breakdowns, for instance). Discussion about this are little more than divination. Completely useless.

Alright man.